Two NBA Best Bets For Monday: Mavericks Vs. Hawks, Thunder Vs. Kings

People say the NBA season doesn't begin until Christmas, which, based on all the injuries, looks to be true. Hopefully, teams get healthier and/or start caring more with the holidays approaching this week. Regardless, I'll continue gambling on the Association daily, as I have for the past 7-8 seasons. That said, keep reading for my two NBA best bets for Monday. 

NBA Betting Card: November 25

• Atlanta Hawks -2.5 (-105) vs. the Dallas Mavericks via Caesar Sportsbook, risking 1.05 units (u).
• Sacramento Kings +4.5 (-110) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder via Caesar Sportsbook, risking 1.1u.

Mavericks at Hawks (-2.5), 7:30 p.m. ET

This line is suspicious even though Dallas (9-8) is on the second of a back-to-back (B2B). The Mavs just had their four-game winning streak in a 123-118 overtime loss at the Miami Heat Sunday. The Hawks (7-10) lost three of their four-game road trip and were 1-3 against the spread (ATS), including two straight blowout losses to the Golden State Warriors and Chicago Bulls. 

Yet, this is Dallas's third game in the last four nights and this is Atlanta's second over that span. More importantly, the Hawks are 10th in shot quality and the Mavs are 27th, per CleaningTheGlass.com. Dallas settles for too many mid-range jumpers, the most inefficient shot in basketball, and Atlanta has the seventh-highest field goal rate at the rim. 

Atlanta Hawks PF Jalen Johnson shoots a floater over the Dallas Mavericks at State Farm Arena. (Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports)

Finally, the ball moves more in Atlanta's offense. The Hawks make more passes per game, average nearly four more assists per game, and 12.1 potential assists per game. This discrepancy in ball movement explains why Atlanta averages 7.7 more wide-open 3-point shots than Dallas. "Wide-open" is when the 3-point shooter is six feet from the nearest defender. 

Prediction: Atlanta 123, Dallas 115

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Thunder at Kings (+4.5), 10 p.m. ET

These teams split their regular-season series 2-2 straight up and ATS last season. Oklahoma City (12-4) All-Star, and 2023-24 NBA MVP finalist, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played in all four games, and Sacramento (8-9) held the biggest lead in three. The Kings are 8-2 ATS vs. the Thunder in their last 10 meetings. 

Also, Sacramento has a strength-on-weakness edge in free-throw shooting. The Kings have a +1.7 differential in free-throw attempts per game and the Thunder have a -4.4 differential. Kings PG De'Aaron Fox and SF DeMar DeRozan are excellent at getting to the charity stripe. 

Sacramento Kings PG De'Aaron Fox takes a layup over Oklahoma City Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at Golden 1 Center. (Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images)

Finally, Sactown is down to +4 in some sportsbooks after opening as +4.5 underdogs despite several factors being in OKC's favor. This is the second leg of a B2B for the Kings, who lost to the Brooklyn Nets 108-103 as -10.5 home favorites Sunday. The Thunder are tied for the best record in the Western Conference and have been resting for the past four days. 

Prediction: Sacramento 116, Oklahoma City 112

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.