3 NBA Slump-Busting Bets For Monday In Pacers-Raptors, Rockets-Bucks, Magic-Suns

To say the start of this NBA betting season has been disappointing is an understatement. If you removed random variance, my NBA betting record would be above .500. Unfortunately, "random" is part of the deal when sports betting and even more so when gambling on the Association because teams just chuck threes nowadays.

But, I have four agonizing losses with teams blowing double-digit leads this season and I lost two games because of buzzer-beaters on broken plays. That's the difference between a losing and a winning season. My record and NBA 2024-25 bankroll are at the bottom of the article. Spoiler Alert: It's ugly. 

Regardless, it's a long season and I plan on righting the ship. Feel free to fade my picks, but don't complain or be surprised once I go on a heater. Trust me, a winning streak is coming. 

NBA Best Bets: Monday November 18

• Toronto Raptors SF R.J. Barrett UNDER 24.5 points vs. the Indiana Pacers at DraftKings, risking 0.86 units (u).
• UNDER 224.5 (-110) in the Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks at FanDuel, risking 1.1u.
• Phoenix Suns +4 (-110) vs. Orlando Magic at Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.08u.

Player Prop in Pacers at Raptors, 7:30 p.m. ET

Toronto SF R.J. Barrett has scored 25+ points in four of his 11 games this season. Barrett scored 25 points his last time out in a 126-123 overtime loss at the Boston Celtics Saturday. Yet, Barrett needed overtime and 27 shots to get there. Barrett's true shooting rate, which factors in 2-point, 3-point, and free-throw shooting, is the lowest since his rookie season. 

According to CleaningTheGlass.com, most of Barrett's shots come from mid-range, and the Pacers are 11th in defensive field goal percentage vs. mid-range jumpers. Indiana PF Pascal Siakam and C Myles Turner use their length and athleticism to clog the paint. Pacers backup SF Jarace Walker starts Monday and leads the team in defensive rating. 

Best Bet: Toronto SF R.J. Barrett Under 24.5 points (-115) 

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UNDER 224.5 in Rocket at Bucks, 8 p.m. ET

The market is overreacting to the news that Bucks All-Star PG Damian Lillard is expected to return from his three-game absence. Rockets-Bucks opened with a 218.5-point total at FanDuel and I bet UNDER 224.5 (-110) and I'm willing to bet the Under down to 222.5. 

Nonetheless, both teams have higher defensive ratings than offensive ratings. Milwaukee is ninth in defensive effective field goal shooting (eFG%), which accounts for 2- and 3-point shooting. Houston is second in defensive eFG% and 27th offensively. The Bucks are fourth in paint points per game (PPG) allowed, and the Rockets are ninth. 

Milwaukee Bucks All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo jams it against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center. (Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports)

Referees can influence the scoring based on how many fouls they call. All three officials for this game have an average final total of less than 224 points. The officiating crew for Rockets-Bucks has a combined 12-17 Over/Under (O/U). Milwaukee is 25th in offensive free-throw attempt rate and Houston is 22nd. 

Lastly, we are fading recent results for both teams because they have a combined 11-16 O/U. The Rockets crushed the Chicago Bulls 143-107 Sunday, and I foolishly bet the Under. The Bucks have gone Over the total in back-to-back games. 

Prediction: Milwaukee 113, Houston 107 

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Magic at Suns (+4), 9 p.m. ET 

This is another game I'm fading the line movement in. Suns All-Star Devin Booker must be out, and it hasn't been reported yet because Orlando is a -3.5 favorite in Phoenix Monday. The Suns opened as -2.5 favorites at DraftKings Sunday, so someone probably knows something I don't. That said, if Booker plays, I'll take Phoenix as a home underdog. 

Granted, the Suns are missing All-Stars Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. However, the Magic are missing by far their best player, All-Star Paolo Banchero, making Booker the best player on the floor, if he plays. Booker scored a game-high 44 points in Phoenix's 120-117 loss at the Minnesota Timberwolves Sunday. Also, we can "sell high" on Orlando and "buy low" on Phoenix. 

The Magic are 5-0 straight up and against the spread (ATS) in their last five games. The Suns have lost four of five and three straight games (2-3 ATS over that span). But, besides the Indiana Pacers, Orlando has beaten bad teams. Phoenix's four losses were to teams with a winning record: Sacramento Kings (twice), Oklahoma City Thunder, and T-Wolves. 

Furthermore, the Magic's five-game winning streak came at home, and they are a different team on the road. Orlando is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS at home with a +16.3 scoring margin. Conversely, the Magic are 1-6 SU and ATS on the road with a -7.7 scoring margin. 

With that in mind, the NBA is all about 3-point shooting right now and teams typically shoot better at home. Orlando is eighth in 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) and last in 3-point shooting percentage. Phoenix is fifth in 3PAr, ninth in threes made per game, and fifth in wide-open 3PAr. 

Prediction: Phoenix 111, Orlando 106

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.