A Crucial NBA Sunday Betting Card From An Ice-Cold Gambler

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Well, I said the New York Knicks would bail me out of a losing skid and that didn't happen. Instead, the Knicks got stomped by the Boston Celtics 116-102 at Madison Square Garden Saturday. As a result, my NBA 2023-24 bankroll fell to a season-low -12.3 units (u) and my record is a crappy 147-144-1. Not great, Bob! 

This happened 2-3 weeks ago too. I sank eight-ish units over the weekend and won it back the following week. I hope it doesn't get that bad again but I've mentally, and possibly financially, prepared for this happening. My homie Jake Knapp on the PGA Tour is four strokes up going into the final round of the 2024 Mexico Open Sunday. 

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I gave out Knapp at 40-to-1 pre-tournament and he's -400 at DraftKings and BetMGM entering Sunday. Meaning, that Knapp might be footing the bill for my NBA losses. If Knapp finishes 2nd, I could go AWOL next week. However, Knapp is punishing the ball in the Mexico Open and I'm irrationally confident in my NBA handicapping. 

NBA Betting Card (not ‘Best Bets’) for Sunday 

  • The odds used are the best available prices at legal U.S. sportsbooks at the time of writing.

Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers (+100), 5 p.m. ET 

The Pacers are healthy and the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. Indy All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton dealt with injuries before the All-Star break but should be ready to go for the 2nd-half of the season. Or at least I hope because Haliburton is 2nd for the Pacers in on/off net rating and throws an NBA-high 11.7 assists per game. 

Back to the "best 3-point shooting team" angle, Indiana is +3.4 in made-3-pointers per game at home this season. They are 2nd in wide-open 3-point-attempt (3PAr) and lead the NBA in defensive wide-open 3PAr. "Wide-open" is when the 3-point shooter has at least six feet worth of separation from the nearest defender. 

Indiana Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton posts up Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic at American Airlines Center in Texas.

Indiana Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton posts up Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic at American Airlines Center in Texas. 

(Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports)

The NBA nowadays is all about the 3-pointer. It sucks because it makes the game more boring and random, but "it is what it is". Dallas leans into these ways and the Mavs have the 2nd-highest 3PAr in the NBA. Also, the Pacers trading for All-Star forward Pascal Siakam makes them a threat to win a round in the playoffs. 

Siakam leads Indy in on/off net rating at +12.7, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). As in, the Pacers score 12.7 more points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time when Pascal is on the floor. He can get his shot over any defender and guard one through four due to his length and athleticism.

BET 1u on Indiana's moneyline (+100) at FanDuel. The Pacers are playable up to -2. 

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Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors (-130), 7 p.m. ET

I like how Golden State has been playing since Draymond Green returned from suspension and inserting SF Jonathan Kuminga into the starting 5. Plus, we are getting a "free-roll" with Denver's injury report, which includes starting guards Jamal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (KCP). 

Green's suspension ended on Jan. 15th and since then the Warriors are 11-5 straight up (SU), 4th in net rating (+7.7), and 2nd in spread differential (+6.2), per CTG. Kuminga keeps opponents honest defensively because of his ability to get to the hoop. And he takes offensive pressure off of Steph Curry's shoulders. 

Golden State Warriors wing Jonathan Kuminga high-fives PF Draymond Green vs. the Atlanta Hawks at Chase Center in San Francisco.

Golden State Warriors wing Jonathan Kuminga high-fives PF Draymond Green vs. the Atlanta Hawks at Chase Center in San Francisco. 

(Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports)

As of the NBA's 12:30 p.m. ET injury report Sunday, Murray and KCP are both "questionable" to play vs. the Warriors. Caldwell-Pope is 2nd behind Nikola Jokić for Denver in on/off net rating (+17.3) and Murray is 5th (+3.5), according to CTG. If neither plays, Golden State's spread could increase to -3.5 and it's -2 currently. 

Despite not having much size in the starting 5, Golden State competes defensively. Per CTG, the Warriors lead the NBA in defensive shot quality and give up the lowest rate of shots at the rim. The sportsbooks are begging for pro-Nuggets money since Golden State is favored even though Denver has beaten the Warriors six straight times. 

BET 1.3u on Golden State's moneyline (-130) at FanDuel. I'd only bet the Warriors' ML up to -135 before laying up to -3 with Golden State. 

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Charlotte Hornets (+3) at Portland Trail Blazers, 9 p.m. ET

Portland sucks and should be a favorite vs. any NBA team right now. The Trail Blazers have lost seven consecutive games, including the god-awful Detroit Pistons at home. They were -4.5 home favorites in that game. Portland is 1-4 SU and against the spread (ATS) as home favorites. 

The Trail Blazers are missing guards Malcolm Brogdon, Scoot Henderson, and Shaedon Sharpe. Brogdon leads Portland with a +9.8 on/off net rating, per CTG. These absences probably mean more touches for Blazers C Deandre Ayton, who is a "basketball cancer". Ayton is one of the softest bigs in the NBA and the most overpaid.  

Charlotte Hornets wing Brandon Miller tries to dunk it on Utah Jazz C Walker Kessler quarter at Spectrum Center in North Carolina.

Charlotte Hornets wing Brandon Miller tries to dunk it on Utah Jazz C Walker Kessler quarter at Spectrum Center in North Carolina. 

(Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports)

More importantly, the Hornets have been playing well lately. They are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games dating before the All-Star break. Charlotte's 4-game winning streak was snapped in a 97-84 loss at the Warriors Friday. But, the Hornets were on the 2nd of a back-to-back and +12.5 underdogs, so nearly covered. 

Finally, Charlotte has two of the three best players on the floor: Hornets forwards Brandon Miller and Miles Bridges. Neither are exactly role models but both are hoopers. Bridges scores 21.6 points per game. Miller is the 3rd-best rookie in the NBA behind San Antonio Spurs big Victor Wembanyama and Oklahoma City Thunder big Chet Holmgren. 

BET 1.1u on the Hornets +3 (-110) at FanDuel and Caesars. Charlotte is playable down to a pick 'em. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.