A Four-Pack Of NBA Picks For Friday Includes Lakers, Pacers And A Heat-Nuggets Shootout

After chickening out of a TV ratings battle with the NFL's Thursday Night Football, the NBA returns with a 13-game slate Friday. This includes the Cleveland Cavaliers trying to remain undefeated while hosting the resurgent Golden State Warriors and a budding rivalry game between the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks. That said, those will be "sidescreen games" because I'm not betting either. 

Rather, I'm putting my hard-earned money on four other games, highlighted by the 2023 NBA Finals rematch with the Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets. I bounced back from a brutal 0-4 Monday to go 2-1 Wednesday despite losing another game on a buzzer-beating putback on a broken play. My current record and balance for the NBA 2024-25 season is at the bottom. 

NBA Best Bets: Friday, November 8

• New Orleans Pelicans +6.5 (-110) vs. the Orlando Magic at BetMGM, risking 1.1 units (u).
• Indiana Pacers -7 (-105) vs. the Charlotte Hornets at DraftKings, risking 1.05u.
• OVER 221.5 (-110) in the Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets at FanDuel, risking 1.1u.
• Los Angeles Lakers -7.5 (-105) vs. the Philadelphia 76ers at Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.05u.

Pelicans (+6.5) at Magic, 7 p.m. ET

Both teams have sucked since getting hit by injuries. The Pelicans are missing guards Dejounte Murray and C.J. McCollum, wings Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones, and All-Star Zion Williamson is "questionable" for Friday. Orlando is without two starters: C Wendell Carter Jr. and All-Star SF Paolo Banchero, the best player on this whole list for both teams. 

Given New Orleans’s injury issues, I'll gamble on Zion playing Friday. He played in NOLA’s 131-122 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers Wednesday, scoring 29 points and grabbing 8 boards. Plus, the Pelicans don’t play this weekend, so Williamson has two days to rest for the next game. 

New Orleans Pelicans SF Brandon Ingram goes to the rack on the Orlando Magic at Amway Center in Florida. (Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images)

Yet, NOLA All-Star SF Brandon Ingram is my "out" if Zion doesn’t play. BI would be the best player on the floor if Williamson is out. Ingram is averaging 24.1 points per game (PPG) on 49.4% shooting with 5.7 assists. Those marks — PPG, field goal percentage, and assists — are the second-best in each respective stat for Ingram’s career. 

Lastly, despite losing to the Golden State Warriors as road underdogs Halloween Eve, the Pelicans were profitable in that spot last season. New Orleans is 13-9 straight up (SU) and 14-7-1 against the spread (ATS) as road underdogs with a +4.5 spread differential in 2023-24.  

Prediction: Magic 108, Pelicans 106 

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Pacers (-7) at Hornets, 7 p.m. ET

I'm not going to overthink this one. The Pacers were -8.7 favorites on average in their four meetings with the Hornets last season and I cannot figure out why Indiana is only -7 Friday. Instead of doing some deep-dive into this matchup, I'll just take the discount on Indy and if Charlotte covers, so be it. 

The Pacers are missing starting SF Aaron Nesmith, but are replacing him with a player whose game I like more, SF Bennedict Mathurin. The Hornets won't have two starters Friday: C Nick Richards and SF Miles Bridges. Richards is grabbing a team-high 10.0 rebounds per game and Bridges averaged 21.0 PPG last season. 

Charlotte Hornets SF Brandon Miller defends Indiana Pacers SF Bennedict Mathurin at Spectrum Center in North Carolina. (Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images)

Charlotte lives and dies by the three, like most NBA teams nowadays, and ranks third in 3-point-attempt rate. But, the only thing Indiana's defense is good at is defending threes. Indy is eighth in wide-open 3-point shots allowed per game and sixth in defensive 3-point percentage. 

According to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Hornets have the third-highest rate of half-court offense and the Pacers are fifth. With that in mind, Indiana's offense leads the NBA in half-court efficiency, whereas Charlotte is 26th. Basically, the Pacers will out-execute the Hornets and win by margin. 

Prediction: Pacers 121, Hornets 112 

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OVER 221.5 in Heat at Nuggets, 9 p.m. ET

Denver's offense has been awesome besides the first two games of the season. The Nuggets have scored 121+ points in five of their last six games, including a 124-122 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder, the best defensive team in the NBA. 

However, the Nuggets have allowed 119+ points in five of their last six, including 119 and 125 to the Toronto Raptors. Hence, the Nuggets are 6-2 Over/Under (O/U) this season. Also, Denver’s defense is 25th in wide-open in 3-point attempts allowed per game and Miami’s defense is 23rd. 

The Heat are sixth in 3-point rate and the Nuggets are seventh. Miami SG Tyler Herro is shooting 45.9% from deep and PG Terry Rozier is shooting 39.6%. Denver has three starters shooting better than 40.0%: Nikola Jokić, SG Christian Braun, and SF Michael Porter Jr. 

Nuggets PG Jamal Murray has been out the last four games with a concussion, but Russell Westbrook is his fill-in, and I bet Jokic loves playing with Westbrook. I’m sure The Joker appreciates Westbrook’s hustle and effort. Everyone who has played with Westbrook raves about him as a teammate. 

Furthermore, Jokic and Westbrook will dominate the paint because Miami is small. Heat PF Bam Adebayo is one of my favorite players in the NBA and, besides San Antonio Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama, Bam is the best defensive player in the world. But, he’s too small for Jokic. It’s really that simple. Jokic can get whatever he wants on Adebayo. 

Denver leads the Association in free-throw attempts per game and Miami is ninth. Finally, the officiating crew for Heat-Nuggets is 11-3 O/U and all three referees have officiated more Overs than Unders. 

Prediction: Nuggets 117, Heat 113 

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76ers at Lakers (-7.5), 10 p.m. ET

The Lakers return home after a five-game road stand. They went 1-4 SU and ATS on that trip. But, it's Friday and the stars will be at the Lakers game. The biggest star of all, LeBron James, should get his co-pilot, Anthony Davis, back Friday, who missed LA's 131-114 loss at the Memphis Grizzlies Wednesday. 

AD is playing the best basketball of his life. Davis is averaging an NBA-best 32.6 PPG on 57.1% shooting and 11.6 rebounds per game while being one of the best defensive players in the Association. Since the 76ers-Lakers is a primetime ESPN game, LeBron and AD will ball out on national TV. 

Los Angeles Lakers All-Stars LeBron James and Anthony Davis walking up the court against the Phoenix Suns at Footprint Center. (Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images)

Moreover, Philly went from bad to worse after losing All-Star SG Tyrese Maxey to a sprained hamstring for the next week or so. The 76ers were already missing 2022-23 NBA MVP Joel Embiid. Sixers SF Paul George made his season debut Monday. PG is still getting back to 100%, and averaging 16.5 PPG in his first two games. Philadelphia cannot rely on PG to carry it yet. 

Everyone bashed the Lakers for hiring J.J. Redick as their head coach this offseason for obvious reasons. Nonetheless, Redick has done a good job so far. He held PG D'Angelo Russell accountable and benched him after a god-awful sequence vs. Memphis Wednesday. The Lakers sent nepo-baby Bronny James to the G-League. 

Ultimately, I'm laying the points with the Lakers because Redick will have them ready to go after a bad road trip, the Sixers are missing two of their three best players, and LeBron and AD will put on a show Friday in LA. 

Prediction: Lakers 120, Sixers 109

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.