NBA Best Bet Tuesday 3-Pack Includes 1 Side, 1 Total, 1 Prop
Excuse my typo in the Tweet below grading my performance Monday in the NBA. It says I hit an "UNDER 232.5" in Bulls-Bucks. But, that game went Over the total and I gave out the Over but wrote "Under" for the Tweet.
Regardless, Monday was a good start to my NBA betting week. My goal is to be a have a few units of surplus by Christmas 2023. With that in mind, I'm going with a buckshot approach with my ...
NBA Tuesday Best Bets
UNDER 232.5 in Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 p.m. ET
I thought I was going to bet the Over in this game. There are so many Over/Under (O/U) trends pointing to Lakers-Mavericks being a high-scoring affair.
However, after digging into both teams' splits and there head-to-head history, my prediction for this game is "Lakers 115, Mavs 111", which well below the 232.5 total.
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Four of the previous five Lakers-Mavericks meetings have gone Under the total dating back to last season. This includes a 104-101 win for Dallas on a 245-point total in November. Four of the prior five Lakers-Mavericks games have played at a slow pace.
The Mavs could be without Kyrie Irving, SG Tim Hardaway Jr., and stretch-4 Grant Williams, all of whom are good 3-point shooters. Also, this is the 2nd of a back-to-back (B2B) for Dallas. Luka Doncic's offensive numbers dip in the 2nd of B2B's.
Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic shoots a fadeaway over Lakers big Anthony Davis and LeBron James at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
Furthermore, neither team gives up a lot of freebies or score 2nd-chance points. The Lakers lead the NBA in defensive FT/FGA and the Mavericks are 3rd. LAL is 28th in points per 100 misses and Dallas is 25th, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Lastly, the total has fallen from 236 on the opener down to the current number of 232.5 despite more action being on the Over, according to Pregame.com.
My prediction: Lakers 115, Mavericks 111
Boston Celtics wing Jaylen Brown OVER 21.5 points vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:30 p.m. ET
Brown has scored at least 22 points in 11 of his 20 games this season and six out of his 10 games at home. In fact, his numbers greatly improves in Boston. Brown averages 4 more points per game (PPG) and his offensive rating goes from 96 to 115 at home.
Last season, Brown put up 30 points in three of his four games against the Cavaliers. They still have poor perimeter defenders: PG Darius Garland, SG Donovan Mitchell, SF Max Strus, and 6th Man Caris LeVert.
Celtics All-Star Jaylen Brown shoots over Cleveland Cavaliers big Evan Mobley at TD Garden in Boston. (Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports)
As of 1 p.m. ET Tuesday, Cavs big Evan Mobley is "questionable" to play. Mobley has missed the last two games and Cleveland's defense worsens when Mobley is off the floor. Even if Mobley plays, Boston's offense is dynamic enough for Brown to still get his.
My prediction: Jaylen Brown scores at least 25 points
Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns (-3.5), 10 p.m. ET
The Suns are 4-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. the Warriors since last season including 2-0 SU and ATS so far this season. Phoenix is out-scoring Golden State 122-113 in those games.
Plus, the Suns should have all of their Big 3 available Tuesday. Kevin Durant is "questionable" but I'm literally gambling on him playing since Phoenix is playing on three days of rest.
Suns All-Star Devin Booker posts up Golden State Warriors SG Klay Thompson at Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Also, the Suns have a strength-on-weakness edge over the Warriors in drawing fouls. Phoenix is 2nd in offensive free-throw attempt rate (FTr) in non-garbage time and Golden State is 27th defensively, per CTG.
Finally, the Suns have a better offensive and defensive effective field goal rate and the Warriors' 5th-best 3-point defense is misleading. Their opponents are hitting just 33.3% of wide-open 3-pointers and Golden State is bottom-10 in the NBA for wide-open 3-point attempt rate allowed.