NBA 2024-25 Season Award, Title Predictions And Best Bets
With the NBA 2024-25 starting this week, it's officially the busy season for my sports betting. Don't get me wrong, the NFL is my favorite league to bet on, but the NBA is a close second. However, the NFL is mostly for Sundays, while the NBA allows me to scratch my sports-betting itch seven days a week.
Let's be clear about something, not all the picks below are bets I've made. My "best bets" in the first section below are actual plays I have in my betting accounts. The rest are just predictions of the best available odds in legal U.S. sportsbooks at the time of writing. Now that that's out of the way, let's discuss what I think will happen in the NBA this season.
NBA 2024-25 Future Best Bets
- Coach of the Year: Phoenix Suns' Mike Budenholzer (+1400) at DraftKings
- Sixth Man of the Year: Phoenix Suns SG Grayson Allen (+4000) at DraftKings
- Clutch Player of the Year: Miami Heat SF Jimmy Butler (+6000) at DraftKings/FanDuel
- Most Improved Player: Detroit Pistons PG Cade Cunningham (+3000) at BetMGM
NBA Champion: New York Knicks (+800)
Unless you're "sprinkling" on a long shot, it's better to wait before betting who will win the NBA Finals or to just bet the team you like throughout the playoffs. Furthermore, I'm hesitant to give out NYK publicly since I'm a Knicks fan, and I'm fully aware of their cursed history.
Nevertheless, I'm here to make my predictions, and I'll go with the Knicks. They have the second-best roster in the East behind the reigning champion Boston Celtics and no team has won back-to-back NBA titles since the Golden State Warriors in 2017-18.
Western Conference Champion: Phoenix Suns (+1200)
Phoenix hired head coach Mike Budenholzer, who should've never been fired by the Milwaukee Bucks. Budenholzer is one of the best head coaches in the Association and, coincidentally, the Bucks beat the Suns in the 2021 NBA Finals with Budenholzer as their coach.
The Phoenix Suns are my pick to represent the Western Conference in the 2024-25 NBA Finals. (Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images)
Suns All-Stars Devin Booker and Kevin Durant are two of the best scorers in the world. Booker is at the peak of his powers and KD quietly had an unbelievable season in 2023-24. Phoenix's problem in the past couple of seasons is it didn't have a true point guard to distribute the ball to its elite scorers.
Well, the Suns signed PG Tyus Jones this offseason to lessen the playmaking burden of Booker, KD, and SG Bradley Beal. With Jones controlling Phoenix into its offense, Booker, KD, and Beal can focus on doing what they do best: Scoring.
NBA MVP
‘Pick’: New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson (+1800) at DraftKings
Brunson made his first NBA All-Star game and Second Team All-NBA, and was fifth in MVP voting last season. He scored a career-best 28.7 points per game (PPG) on .479/.491/.847 shooting and threw a career-best 6.7 assists.
Also, Brunson proved there is more to his game than getting to the foul line by drawing cheap fouls. Granted, he was 12th in free-throw attempts per game last season. But, the NBA tweaked the officiating after the All-Star Game to remove "foul baiting", and Brunson averaged 31.3 PPG and 7.3 assists post-All-Star break.
New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson "getting in his bag" against the San Antonio Spurs at Frost Bank Center in Texas. (Scott Wachter-Imagn Images)
Finally, playing in the New York media market improves his chances of winning awards. Brunson's path to winning the MVP is playing 75+ games with the Knicks, a top-two seed in the Eastern Conference.
‘Value Bet’: Memphis Grizzlies PG Ja Morant (+4000) at DraftKings
Morant's career derailed after he was suspended for flashing a gun on Instagram a couple of times last season. Once he returned from a suspension for gun-toting last season, Ja averaged 25.1 points and 8.1 assists in the nine games he played before getting hurt.
Nevertheless, I'm buying stock in the Grizzlies entering this season. They were a 2-seed in the Western Conference in back-to-back seasons from 2021-23, winning 56 and 51 games. The only way Memphis contends in a loaded West is if Morant has an MVP-like season.
He is only 25 years old and has already played in two All-Star games, won the 2019-20 NBA Rookie of the Year and the 2021-22 Most Improved Player awards, and finished seventh in MVP voting in 2021-22. Lastly, this is the best team the Grizzlies have put around Ja. To win the MVP, you need team success while putting up crazy numbers, and both are doable.
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Rookie of the Year: Grizzlies C Zach Edey (+350) at DraftKings
People thought the Grizzlies reached when drafting Edey with the No. 9 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. Edey is a 7-foot-4, "back-to-the-basket" center who likes to get post-touches. Basketball isn't played that way anymore. The NBA is more about spacing and outside shooting. Even bigs shoot threes in today's NBA.
But, center was a position of need for Memphis, which had to replace former starting C Steven Adams after trading him this offseason. Edey averaged 22.3 PPG and 12.9 rebounds and 25.2 PPG and 12.2 rebounds in 2023-24 for the Purdue Boilermakers while winning Naismith College Player of the Year in both seasons.
Edey can be a "roll man" and a lob threat for Morant in pick-and-roll action. Since Ja attacks the paint as relentlessly as anyone in the NBA, his teammates get easy putbacks by following him to the paint. Teams cannot box out bigs if they have to switch because Morant beats their guards off the dribble.
Plus, Edey's size allows Grizzlies PF Jaren Jackson Jr. to cover less space and hopefully keep him out of foul trouble. Jackson is the 2022-23 NBA Defensive Player of the Year and led the NBA in blocks per game from 2021-23. Yet, because he is all over the place defensively, Jackson commits too many fouls and averages just 5.5 rebounds per game for his career.
Nonetheless, Edey is a "pick" instead of a "bet" because I rarely bet futures at odds of +1000 or less. In most years, Edey's Rookie of the Year odds would be juicier, but this is a weak class.
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Defensive Player of the Year
‘Pick’: San Antonio Spurs C Victor Wembanyama (-155) at FanDuel
Listen, Wembanyama is the best defensive player in the world. He can protect the rim and close out on 3-point shooters with his nearly eight-foot wing span. We've never seen anything like that. Hence, the nickname: The Extraterrestrial.
NBA bettors and analysts thought Wembanyama was robbed last year when Minnesota Timberwolves C Rudy Gobert won his fourth NBA Defensive Player of the Year. Voters will make it up to Wembanyama by giving him the award this season. That said, there is no way I'm betting on a -155 NBA future.
‘Value Bet’: Miami Heat C Bam Adebayo (+1400) at DraftKings
Adebayo is the second-best defensive player in basketball. He's made five straight NBA All-Defensive First or Second Teams. Bam is the only player who can defend bigs in the paint and ball handlers in space. Unfortunately, an injury to Wemby is the only way Adebayo wins this award. Candidly, since I don't have an unlimited bankroll, this won't be a bet I have in my account.
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Coach of the Year: Phoenix Suns' Mike Budenholzer (+1400)
Phoenix went 49-33 last season and fired former head coach Frank Vogel after getting swept in the first round by the Timberwolves. The Suns hired Budenholzer to get more out of their "win-now" roster. He can win this award if Phoenix wins 55+ games and finishes as a top-three seed in the West.
Two-time Coach of the Year, Mike Budenholzer directing the Phoenix Suns vs. the Detroit Pistons during a 2024 NBA preseason game. (Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images)
Budenholzer has a 60.4% winning percentage in his career, coaching the Atlanta Hawks from 2013-18 and the Bucks from 2018-23. He is a two-time Coach of the Year winner for both teams. Milwaukee foolishly fired Budz after a first-round exit from the playoffs and is in a worse spot because of that decision.
Despite finishing ninth in offensive rating last season, the Suns' offense can be more efficient by shooting more threes, which Budenholzer will have them do. Phoenix was fifth in 3-point shooting percentage but 25th in attempts. On average, the Bucks were fifth in 3-point attempts per game in the Budenholzer era.
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Sixth Man of the Year: Phoenix Suns SG Grayson Allen (+4000)
Allen should be one of the biggest benefactors of Phoenix hiring Budenholzer. He shot 40.9% and 39.9% from behind the arc in his two seasons playing for Budz in Milwaukee from 2021-23. Allen scored a career-high 13.5 PPG in 2023-24, his first season with the Suns, and led the NBA in 3-point rate at 46.1%.
The Duke Blue Devil is injury-prone Beal's backup. Beal played only 53 games last season and hasn't played more than 60 since 2018-19. Allen could juice his per-game numbers up if he replaces Beal in the starting 5 for 20-30 games this season.
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Clutch Player of the Year: Miami Heat SF Jimmy Butler (+6000)
Miami rarely blows teams out and Butler is one of the best closers in the NBA. The first two winners of this award were Sacramento Kings PG De'Aaron Fox and former Chicago Bulls wing DeMar DeRozan. They won it by helping their teams steal games in "clutch" time, defined by games within a 5-point margin in the final five minutes of regulation.
Also, Butler is motivated after not getting a contract extension this offseason and being called out by Miami President Pat Riley in Riley's season recap press conference. Riley essentially told the media he doesn't want to give Butler a raise because he doesn't play enough games. The most games Butler has played in his five seasons with the Heat is 64 in 2022-23.
If Butler plays 70+ games, Miami is a 50-win team, and he could be an All-Star or All-NBA player. He is one of the best players in the NBA at getting to the charity stripe without flailing, and he operates in the mid-range, which is left wide-open by defenses who want to prevent dunks and threes. Getting to the foul line and hitting tough 2-pointers is how you finish tight games in the NBA.
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Most Improved Player of the Year: Detroit Pistons PG Cade Cunningham (+3000)
Cunningham is entering his fourth season and I have a Four-Year Pop Theory. This points out that sometimes it takes NBA superstars four seasons to break out. For instance, former NBA MVPs such as Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and James Harden didn't make their first All-Star game until their fourth seasons.
Usually, the Most Improved Player award is given to someone who makes their first All-Star Game and Cunningham put up All-Star-like numbers last season. He set career highs in points (22.7) and assists per game (7.5), and effective field goal shooting (50.0%), which factors in 2- and 3-point shooting.
Detroit Pistons PG Cade Cunningham is my pick to win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player of the Year. (David Reginek-Imagn Images)
Cunningham's path to winning Most Improved Player is appearing in his first All-Star game while scoring 25+ PPG and Detroit winning 35+ games. The latter is the toughest part of his path because the Pistons won 14 games last season. But, I like Detroit's offseason acquisitions and the Pistons can sneak into the play-in tourney since the East is terrible after the top-eight teams.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.