NBA 2024-25 Opening Night Best Bets: Knicks Vs. Celtics, Timberwolves Vs. Lakers
The Paris Olympics were cool and all, but it's been too long since I've been able to watch and bet the NBA. The Association returns Tuesday with an NBA on TNT doubleheader featuring the reigning champion Boston Celtics raising a banner before hosting the New York Knicks. Then LeBron James begins his 22nd season when the Minnesota Timberwolves go to LaLa Land to play the Lakers.
From a betting perspective, last season was a down year, so I've been eager for the NBA's return since the Celtics beat the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA Finals this summer. I'm confident I'll get that money back, and then some, because the NBA is my bread and butter. In the spirit of transparency, I'll update and report my NBA record all season. That said, let's start the season off right and make some money on opening night.
NBA Betting Card: Tuesday, October 22nd
- Bet 1.1 units (u) on UNDER 223 in the New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics at FanDuel.
- Bet 1.1u on the Los Angeles Lakers +1.5 (-110) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves at Caesars Sportsbook.
UNDER 223 in Knicks at Celtics, 7:30 p.m. ET
Initially, I leaned toward betting the Under because New York traded for one of the best shooting bigs in basketball, Karl-Anthony Towns (KAT), Knicks C Mitchell Robinson, who is an elite rebound and rim protector, is out with an injury, and Boston scored 123.1 points per game at home last season.
Yet, after thinking harder about this matchup, and considering the public will hammer the Over based on the reasons above, I'm flipping to the UNDER 224, down to 221.5. Moreover, the total has been steamed up from the 221.5 opener, so I'm fading the line movement and the public action.
New York also acquired forward Mikal Bridges this offseason, one of the best defensive wings in the NBA. Another guy in that conversation is Knicks starting forward OG Anunoby. Defensively, Bridges and OG are as good of an answer for Boston All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown as any forward tandem in basketball.
New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson dribbles the ball on the baseline with Boston Celtics SG Derrick White playing defense at TD Garden. (Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports)
Celtics guards Jrue Holiday and Derrick White form the best defensive backcourt in the NBA. Even though New York PG Jalen Brunson balled vs. Boston last season, there is an off-chance that he struggles against Holiday and White. The Celtics have four good perimeter defenders, including Tatum and Brown.
"Pace" is the most important stat for deciding totals. In 2023-24, New York played at the slowest pace in the NBA and Boston was 20th in pace. KAT is a half-court player and the Minnesota Timberwolves' pace plummeted when he was on the floor last season. It will take time for the Knicks to find their groove offensively with two new starters.
The NBA tried to remove "foul baiting" from the game after the All-Star break last season by calling fewer lame fouls. If the NBA officiates the same way this season, scoring will be down league-wide. Ultimately, I'm fading
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Timberwolves at Lakers (+1.5), 10 p.m. ET
Given how these teams finished last season, "Timberwolves -1.5" feels like a trap. Minnesota made it to the Western Conference Finals and LA lost to the Denver Nuggets 4-1 in the first round. The T-Wolves have the new face of American basketball, Anthony Edwards, while the Lakers are counting on old man LeBron.
LeBron tore the Timberwolves apart in their two meetings last season. He averaged 27.5 PPG, 5.5 rebounds, and 7.5 assists with a +13 net rating. The Lakers have four good 3-point shooters in their starting 5: LeBron, PG D'Angelo Russell, SG Austin Reeves, and PF Rui Hachimura.
Los Angeles Lakers SF LeBron James attacks the basket vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves at Crypto.com Arena. (Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images)
Per CleaningTheGlass.com, LAL had a higher half-court offensive efficiency than Minnesota last season. The T-Wolves have the same problem as the Knicks. They have to fit PF Julius Randle into their offense while the Lakers are running it back with the same starting 5, and continuity is the most important thing in basketball.
Also, Lakers All-Star big Anthony Davis wrecked Timberwolves C Rudy Gobert last season. In four games vs. Minnesota, AD averaged 23.8 PPG, 13.5 rebounds, and 5.0 assists with a +35 net rating. Granted, Gobert missed one of those games. But, Davis had 31-8-4 and 33-17-8 stat lines in two of their three meetings.
Even though Randle's personality should mesh well with the T-Wolves, swapping him with KAT will make it easier for AD to defend Minnesota's frontcourt. Randle only shot 31.1% from behind the arc last season and Gobert's jumper is broken, so Davis can protect the paint.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.