NBA 2023 Playoffs Bets For Tuesday: 2 Sides, 1 Total, 1 Prop
If you count the additional bet given out on my OutKick Bets Podcast, I went 4-0 in Monday's two NBA postseason games. I'm back again with another four looks in Tuesday's 3-game NBA playoff slate.
Below, you'll find a player prop for Hawks-Celtics, a side and total in Knicks-Cavaliers and a side in the Clippers-Suns.
Atlanta Hawks (0-1) at Boston Celtics (1-0), 7 p.m. ET
The Celtics boat-raced the Hawks 112-99 in Game 1. Boston was ahead by as much as 32 points in Game 1. The Celtics held the lead for roughly 45 minutes.
As far as the head-to-head matchup is considered, I don't have much on this game. I whiffed on my Over 230.5 wager in Hawks-Celtics Game 1. My hunch is the Game 2 zig-zags to the Over.
Atlanta is a team I rarely bet because it takes too many long contested 2-pointers. Plus Trae Young is a basketball-cancer who doesn't play off the ball or defend. Teams take the identity of their best players.
But, it's the playoffs, I'm OutKick's NBA handicapper and I'm locked into these matchups. So my favorite look in Hawks-Celtics Game 2 is ...
Celtics SF Jaylen Brown's Over 27.5 (-105) Point Prop at DraftKings Sportsbook
In Game 1, Brown scored 29 points on 52.2% shooting (2 for 6 from behind the arc) with only three free-throw attempts but led the Celtics in usage rate.
During the regular season, Brown averaged 23.0 points per game on 57.1% shooting and only 18.2% from behind the arc in just 30.5 minutes player per game.
Celtics wing Jaylen Brown gets a bunny during Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Playoffs vs. the Hawks at the TD Garden in Boston. (Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images)
My biggest concern with this bet is Boston beating Atlanta so badly in Game 2 that Brown doesn't play the fourth quarter. However, Brown played 37 minutes in a game the Celtics led by 30.
If Hawks-Celtics Game 2 is more competitive than Game 1, and it almost has to be, then Brown should get the necessary volume to go Over 27.5 points.
Atlanta’s best wing defender (SF De’Andre Hunter) will be preoccupied with Jayson Tatum. Hawks two-way G Dejounte Murray is an exceptional on-ball defender. Yet Murray is 2 inches shorter and 40 pounds lighter than Brown.
Per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Atlanta's defensive field goal percentage vs. mid-range jumpers ranks 18th in the NBA. A majority of Brown's field goal attempts come in the mid-range. Basically, Brown can get whatever he wants vs. the Hawks.
NBA Bet #1: Celtics' Jaylen Brown OVER 27.5 points (-105) at DraftKings
Odds for Celtics SF Jaylen Brown's point prop vs. the Hawks in Game 2 of the NBA playoffs at DraftKings.
New York Knicks (1-0) at Cleveland Cavaliers (0-1), 7:30 p.m. ET
NYK's 101-97 Game 1 win in Cleveland was more impressive than the final score indicates. The Knicks outperformed the Cavs in three of the "four factors"
The only Cavalier that had success was Donovan Mitchell and PG Darius Garland was too passive. Even if Garland plays well, Cleveland doesn't have enough depth to -5.5 favorites over NYK.
Furthermore, the Knicks are stacked with good, on-ball perimeter defenders: SG Quentin Grimes, wing Josh Hart, combo guard Immanuel Quickley and wing R.J. Barrett.
Mitchell shoots over Grimes in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference 1st-Round Playoffs at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland. (Jason Miller/Getty Images)
Cleveland PF Evan Mobley had his hands full with Julius Randle and didn't look ready for playoff basketball. Cavs big Jarrett Allen is canceled out by Knicks C Mitchell Robinson. Cleveland's bench has one of the worst PPG in the NBA.
Since New York figures to win the battle of possessions, which is the most important thing in basketball, then I'm kind of forced to ...
Bet the KNICKS +5.5 (-110) at DraftKings in Game 2.
The Knicks have a +9.2 rebound-per-game margin in their five meetings with the Cavaliers this season, including the playoffs. The big reason for this is NYK's guards rebound and Cleveland's guards do not.
New York acquired Hart at the trade deadline (Feb. 9) who is an elite rebounding wing/guard. From that day, the Knicks are 2nd in total rebounding rate and the Cavaliers are 28th.
The Knicks have a better offensive turnover rate as well. I don't see how the Cavaliers -5.5 is a good bet if they are going to lose the battle of possessions.
Knicks PG Jalen Brunson celebrates after scoring vs. the Cavaliers at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland, Ohio. (Jason Miller/Getty Images)
Also, I like Knicks-Cavaliers Game 2 to go UNDER 214 (-110). Both teams play at an ultra-slow pace and awesome defense. Both offenses play too much iso-ball, which is easy to defend.
The 1st five Knicks-Cavaliers meetings this season are 2-3 Over/Under and finished with an average total of 210.8. In Game 1, these teams had a 90.9 pace and the NBA regular-season average was 99.1.
NBA Bet(s): Knicks +5.5 (-110) and UNDER 214 in NYK-Cleveland Game 2 at DraftKings
The NY Knicks' spread vs. the Cavaliers and odds for the Game 2 Under from DraftKings.
Los Angeles Clippers (1-0) at Phoenix Suns (0-1), 10 p.m. ET
Ultimately, the market isn’t budging on the Suns being a heavy favorite over the Clippers and I’m not backpedaling on my stance that these odds are disrespectful.
LAC beat Phoenix 115-110 in Game 1 as +8 'dogs and the Suns are -8 favorites again in Game 2. Kawhi Leonard was the best player on the floor. He scored a game-high 38 points on 13-of-24 shooting with 5 rebounds and 5 assists.
Clippers' Ty Lue can coach circles around Suns' Monty Williams. ESPN's Zach Lowe noted on his latest podcast that Lue had Kawhi defend Phoenix big Deandre Ayton and put Clippers C Ivica Zubac on Suns wing Torrey Craig.
Ayton is taller but cannot physically overpower Leonard. Craig isn't used to being the screener in pick-and-roll action. Kawhi's defensive versatility is part of the reason he's the best player on the floor.
Kawhi Leonard dunks the ball on Deandre Ayton in Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Playoffs at Footprint Center in Phoenix. (Kate Frese/NBAE via Getty Images)
Also, Kevin Durant's 11 assists in Game 1 is further proof that this team doesn’t know how to play with each other yet. Durant shouldn’t be passing that much. The Suns need KD to score 30+ points.
The Clippers on the other hand know exactly have an identity and know who the head honcho is (Kawhi Leonard). Even the much maligned Russell Westbrook is making an impact for LAC.
Westbrook's relentlessness and aggressiveness is going to continue to give Phoenix — a finesse team — headaches. The Suns tend to send opponents to the foul line often and if Westbrook keeps attacking in Game 2, the Clippers will get a ton of freebies.
NBA Bet #4: Clippers +8 (-110) at DraftKings
The LA Clippers' odds at the Phoenix Suns in Game 2 of their NBA Western Conference 1st-round playoff series at DraftKings.
Check out NBA Hoops At Lunch basketball betting show on the OutKick Bets Podcast feed for the audio versions of the handicaps below.