NBA 2023 Play-In Friday Bets: Bulls-Raptors, Pelicans-Thunder
Wednesday is the 2nd night of NBA 2023 Play-In action. The 9th- and 10th-place teams from both conferences square off in "loser leaves town" games.
The winner of tonight's games will face the losers of Tuesday play-in games for the final playoff seed in their respective conferences.
My NBA regular season was an embarrassment. I've profited off every NBA postseason over the last six seasons but I've also never gotten crushed like I did this regular season.
For the record, I went 1-1 in Thursday's written plays and cashed the only player prop I gave out on Tuesday's OutKick Bets Podcast: NBA Play-In 2023 Gambling Syllabus featuring David Troy.
NBA East Play-In: Chicago Bulls (10) at Toronto Raptors (9)
Bulls-Raptors Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Bulls-Raptors betting odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, April 12th at 12:40 p.m. ET.
If I'm keeping it real, I'm a little nervous about the line movement combined with the fact that I've heard no one say, "Ya know, I like the Raptors ATS Wednesday".
Toronto opened as -4.5 favorites at most sportsbooks and are up to -6. What's troubling about this is roughly 60% of the action at DraftKings is on Chicago, per VSIN. But, since I cannot reverse-engineer the line movement, I have to fade it.
The gist of my pro-BULLS +6 (-110) handicap is they have a much better shot profile. First of all, Chicago has a better wide-opened 3-point-attempt rate than Toronto on both ends of the floor.
Also, the Raptors are 22nd in assist rate and plays an above-average frequency of iso-ball. Yet the Bulls lead the NBA in both offensive and defensive efficiency in isolation sets. The Raptors are below-average in both.
Furthermore, Chicago prevents the things Toronto likes to do, which is crash the glass, get out in transition and create points off of turnovers.
Raptors PG Fred VanVleet shoots over Bulls G Alex Caruso at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. (Mark Blinch/Getty Images)
The Bulls rank 7th in both points off of turnovers and fastbreak points per game (PPG) allowed and 2nd in second-chance PPG allowed.
The Raptors will most likely need PG Fred VanVleet to play well for Toronto to advance. Chicago adding PG Patrick Beverley to its backcourt along with Alex Caruso will be a factor Wednesday.
VanVleet scored just 3 points in the last Bulls-Raptors meeting of the regular season, which was the only Pat Bev played in. Toronto won 104-98 but VanVleet was 1-for-11 and 1-for-9 from behind the arc.
Essentially, both teams are going to slow this game down and play through their iso-scoring wings. Gimme DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine plus the points over Pascal Siakam and Scottie Barnes and/or OG Anunoby.
BET: Bulls +6 (-110), down to +5
The Chicago Bulls' spread odds at the Toronto Raptors from DraftKings.
PS Player Prop: Toronto Raptors SF Scottie Barnes Points Prop (15.5)
Speaking of Barnes, I think he'll be the odd-man out in Toronto's offense. During the regular season, Barnes had the 4th-highest usage rate of all the Raptors' rotational players. He was behind Siakam, VanVleet and SG Gary Trent.
Barnes scored 5, 19 and 11 points in this three games against the Bulls this season. His 19-point outing was on 42.1% shooting and Barnes' usage rate was higher because Siakam missed the game with an injury.
Scottie Barnes drives to the basket vs. Caruso at United Center in Chicago. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Also, Barnes might not get Chicago's best wing defender, Patrick Williams. But, the Bulls don't need him for this matchup because Barnes cannot shoot. Barnes is shooting 45.6% from the field (49.2% last season) and 28.1% from 3.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Barnes takes a majority of his jumpers from the mid-range. Chicago ranks 4th in defensive field goal percentage vs. mid-range shots.
BET: UNDER 15.5 Scottie Barnes Points (-105)
Odds for the Under Toronto Raptors' Scottie Barnes point prop at DraftKings.
NBA West Play-In: Oklahoma City Thunder (10) at New Orleans Pelicans (9)
Thunder-Pelicans Odds via DraftKings
Thunder-Pelicans betting odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, April 12th at 12:40 p.m. ET.
I wouldn't bet a side in this game with your money. New Orleans is the higher power-ranked team according to my numbers but OKC matches up well with the Pelicans.
If I'm forced to pick a side, I'd take the points with the Thunder. They are one of the most profitable underdogs this season, OKC averages the most drives per game and the Pelicans have a weak interior defense.
I'm also not betting the total even though I have a heavy lean to the OVER. I was on the OVER in Tuesday's Lakers-Timberwolves play-in game, which was a loser.
In fact, the last seven NBA play-in games have gone Under the total. However, I have two player props in the Thunder-Pelicans that's focused on 3-and-D guys.
New Orleans SF Herbert Jones Points Prop (11.5)
This number is out of whack. Jones averages 9.8 PPG, has scored 12 or more points in just 21 of his 66 games played this season and has the 13th-highest usage rate on NOLA.
Granted, Jones has scored at least 12 points in two of his four games against the Pelicans during the regular season. But, Brandon Ingram missed both of those games and C.J. McCollum missed one.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander drives past Herbert Jones at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. (Ian Maule/Getty Images)
More importantly, Jones is the Pelicans' best on-ball defender and he will have his hands full with OKC All-Star PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Jones has the most straightforward game plan of any player in this game: Stop SGA. The bottom line is unless he gets hot from deep, and he's a 33.5% 3-point shooter, Jones isn't sniffing double-digit points.
Oklahoma City Thunder SG Luguentz Dort Made 3-Pointers (1.5)
Dort's made 3-pointers prop is actually more expensive at the other legal U.S. sportsbooks, who will go unnamed. The Over at plus-money for this prop makes sense because Dort is shooting just 16.7% from 3 vs. NOLA this season.
This feels like a rare "trap line" in a player prop. Perhaps I'm overthinking it but Dort should get a ton of good looks Wednesday.
The Pelicans are 27th in defensive wide-open 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) allowed and the Thunder are 2nd in offensive wide-open 3PAr.
Thunder G Luguentz Dort shoots a 3-pointer vs. the Golden State Warriors at Chase Center in San Francisco. (Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images)
OKC has two quality shot creators in SGA and point-forward Josh Giddey. No one on the Pelicans are going to be afraid of Dort chucking 3s.
Frankly, it'll probably be considered a "good defensive possession" for New Orleans. But, half the battle of these player props is "volume". Dort should get the necessary volume to go OVER 1.5 made 3-pointers.
Odds for Herbert Jones' points prop and Luguentz Dort's made 3-pointers prop in Thunder-Pelicans from DraftKings.