NBA 2023-24 Season Award Predictions, Best Bets
A special OutKick investigation revealed the NBA 2023-24 regular season tips off Tuesday, October 24th. Based on the page views for my NBA handicaps last season, I'm guessing most of you don't care. OutKick is where the NBA goes to die.
Regardless, basketball is my favorite sport and not even the NBA's terribleness — from the flopping down to the load management to working with China — can ruin it for me. Betting on basketball makes it that much better.
Honestly, I usually avoid NBA futures during the preseason. Part of my logic is that we might get better odds mid-season once we get more info. The other part is I prefer to use my NBA bankroll on regular-season action.
Meaning, unless otherwise specified, the picks below are more recommendations. These aren't full unit (u) bets. Instead, maybe sprinkle a 0.25u or 0.33 unit on the following ...
LISTEN to the OutKick Bets Podcast's NBA 2023-24 season preview episodes featuring David Troy:
NBA 2023-24 Season Awards Predictions
NBA MVP
Official Pick: Boston Celtics wing Jayson Tatum (+650)
Last season, Tatum averaged a career-high in points (30.1), rebounds (8.8), assists (4.6), true shooting (.466/.350/.854), PER (23.7), and Win Shares per 48 minutes (.185). To put it mildly: "Tatum is trending up".
However, stats alone aren't enough to win the MVP. You need team success too. Well, the Celtics are the favorites to win the championship and could be a 60-win team during the regular season.
So, what is Tatum's path to win the MVP? Obviously, Boston needs to be a 1- or 2-seed out East. Plus, the 25-year-old either needs to score an efficient 30 points per game (PPG) or average a double-double while scoring at least 27 PPG. All of which is doable.
Best Value: Los Angeles Lakers big Anthony Davis (+3000)
AD is tied for the 13th-best odds to win the NBA MVP and his ceiling is a top-two player in the world. Look, it's Nikola Jokic's world and we are all just living in it. Jokic is rightfully the favorite to win this award at +400 odds.
Davis dunks it on Jokic in the 2023 NBA Western Conference Finals at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Harry How/Getty Images)
That said, The Unibrow can dominate on both ends of the floor, which is something The Joker cannot do. Plus, Davis averaged 25.9 PPG last season with career highs in shooting (56.3%) and rebounding (12.5).
Injuries have held AD back through his 1st four seasons in LA. Davis is averaging roughly 48 games per season as a Laker. But, if AD can play 70 games en route to the Lakers clinching home court for the postseason then he can win the MVP.
NBA Defensive Player of the Year
Official Pick: Miami Heat big Bam Adebayo (+900)
According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Miami has ranked 10th or better in defensive rating every season since 2015-16. The Heat were 7th in defensive rating last season and Adebayo is the backbone of their defense.
Bam was tied for 9th in defensive win shares last season and made his 4th consecutive All-Defensive team. He can guard bigs down low and ball handlers on the perimeter. For my money, Adebayo is the best defender in the world.
Best Value: Golden State Warriors PF Draymond Green (+2500)
Draymond is one of the most decorated defensive players in NBA history. He's the 2017 NBA Defensive Player of the Year and has been named to four 1st-Team All-Defenses.
Also, Golden State trading for Chris Paul lightens up Green's point guard duties, allowing Draymond to use more bandwidth on defense. The Warriors led the NBA in defensive rating two years ago. If they do that again, Green will be a DPOY finalist.
Rookie of the Year
Official Pick: San Antonio Spurs big Victor Wembanyama (-150)
As much as I enjoy being a contrarian, I cannot downplay this Wembanyama thing. This kid is going to be nasty. Unless he gets injured, Wemby is a lock to win Rookie of the Year. If you've read this far, you already know about Wembanyama.
Rather than wasting more ink on this kid, just watch this video:
NBA Sixth Man of the Year
Official Pick: New York Knicks wing Josh Hart (+3500)
After picking Hart up at the trade deadline, he led the Knicks in on/off net rating, according to CTG. New York finished the regular season 17-8 once Hart came to town and he fills a lot of holes on the Knicks.
New York Knicks wing Josh Hart shoots a 3-pointer over Miami Heat big Bam Adebayo at Madison Square Garden in New York. (Elsa/Getty Images)
Hart is one of the best rebounding guards in the Association. He is a 3-and-D guy that space the floor, guard 1-4 and finish in transition. Hart replaced Knicks 1st-string SF R.J. Barrett late in games down toward the end of the season.
'Best Best': Golden State Warriors wing Jonathan Kuminga (+5000)
This is my favorite bet on the board. Kuminga averaged the 2nd-most PPG during the preseason behind Heat combo guard Tyler Herro. The 3rd-year wing improved his 3-point shooting to 37.0% in his 2nd season and shot 52.5% from the field.
Golden State has a lot of veteran players who often get injured. It's likely that Kuminga will start a few games this season. The Warriors trading Jordan Poole this offseason opens up shots for Kuminga and the rest of Golden State's bench.
Coach of the Year
Official Pick: Boston Celtics head coach Joe Mazzula (+850)
I don't have a ton of analysis here. Boston is my No. 1 power-rated team entering the season. If the Celtics can win 60+ games, and I think they can, then Mazzula has a shot at this award. It's as simple as that.
Best Value: Minnesota Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch (+2500)
There is a world where the T-Wolves are a top-three seed in the Western Conference. Minnesota wing Anthony Edwards is a budding superstar. The Timberwolves have a good mix of young talent and experienced veterans.
Let's pretend Minnesota is good this season. Finch to win Coach of the Year at 25-to-1 is more likely to cash than the T-Wolves winning a title or even making the NBA Finals, Edwards winning an MVP, and any other Minnesota long-shot bet.
Most Improved Player of the Year
'Best Bet': Detroit Pistons PG Cade Cunningham (+1100)
I'm a big-time investor in Cunningham's future. Well, not financially. Just emotionally and for bragging rights among my basketball friends. Cade is one of my favorite young talents in the NBA and he is going to get the Pistons into the playoffs soon.
Typically, this award is for 3rd- and 4th-year players or players that make their 1st All-Star team. Cade was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft and I think he'll eventually be an All-Star. If not this year the next.
Finally, this could be a de facto "Comeback Player of the Year" award, which doesn't exist in the NBA. Cunningham missed most of last season with a stress fracture in his left leg. He was going to improve anyways but this injury adds to Cade's story.
Clutch Player of the Year
In the NBA, "clutch" is when games have a 5-point margins inside of five minutes in regulation. This is the most random of the NBA's increasingly random awards.
Sacramento Kings PG De'Aaron Fox won the inaugural Clutch Player of the Year award last season. Fox led the NBA with 5.0 clutch PPG with a minimum of 30 "clutch" situations played.
'Best Bet': New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson (+2000)
Last season, Brunson 4.0 points per clutch situation was 3rd behind Fox and Chicago Bulls wing DeMar DeRozan. Brunson shot 51.6% from the field and 37.5 from behind the arc in the clutch as well.
New York was +6.8 points per 100 possessions when Brunson was on the floor last season. When it comes to "winning time," the Knicks let Brunson run the show. He has a ton of moves and gets his shot in a multitude of ways.
New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson dribbles against the Miami Heat Game 5 of the 2023 Eastern Conference Semifinals at Madison Square Garden. (Elsa/Getty Images)
Furthermore, playing in New York and being a Knick definitely helps Brunson's case. The media will be looking to give someone credit if New York wins 55+ games. Brunson can put together a highlight reel at the World's Most Famous Arena this season.
He's not winning an MVP or scoring title. Curry and Luka Doncic prevent Brunson from being All-NBA 1st-Team. The most attainable award for him is "Clutch Player of the Year".