Must-Win NBA Saturday Bets Include South Beach And Big D
I got my weekend started off right by cashing both NBA bets Friday. Hopefully, my good luck continues Saturday because I've gotten waxed in college football all season. Whatever. Hot Take: College sports suck.
However, what's even more annoying than college sports is my mediocre performance in the NBA this season. One day I'll sweep the board and the next I get punched in the mouth. If I don't suck, I can get my season-long bankroll back in the black with these ...
NBA Saturday Best Bets
Miami Heat (-2.5) at Chicago Bulls, 8 p.m. ET tip-off
After a sluggish start, Miami has it rolling. The Heat are on a 7-game winning streak and have covered three of their last four. Chicago beat Miami in all three meetings last regular season but the Heat eliminated the Bulls in the final postseason play-in game.
Both of these teams play a similar style but Miami is more efficient. The Bulls are 28th in pace, the Heat are 22nd, and each play a lot of half-court basketball. Well, according to CleaningTheGlass.com, Miami is +3.0 in net points per 100 half-court plays and Chicago is -1.3.
Chicago Bulls G Alex Caruso defends Heat wing Jimmy Butler at Kaseya Center in Miami. (Bryan Cereijo/Getty Images)
Furthermore, the vibes are all wrong in the Windy City and the Bulls could be sellers before the trade deadline. Their key players (SG Zach LaVine, G Alex Caruso, SF DeMar DeRozan, and big Nikola Vucevic) are all in trade rumors. It feels like a lot of these guys don't want to play in Chicago anymore.
With that in mind, the Bulls best players have looked like crap thus far. Vucevic has a -4.0 on/off net rating, LaVine is -8.7 and DeRozan is -16.7, per CTG. Whereas Miami is getting good minutes from its role players. As per usual.
Heat rookie wing Jaime Jaquez Jr. and wing Haywood Highsmith both have +7.3 on/off net ratings, according to CTG. Plus, Miami wing Caleb Martin returned after missing 10 games with an injury. Martin played a big role in the Heat's run to the NBA Finals last season.
My prediction: Heat 114, Bulls 107
Dallas Mavericks (+2.5) at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 p.m. ET tip-off
Now that elite defensive PG Jrue Holiday is no longer with the Bucks, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving should crush Milwaukee whose defense rating is 22nd this season without Holiday. Per CTG, Dallas is 4-1 vs. teams with a bottom-10 defensive rating.
On top of that, I have a working theory that Luka balls out on the weekend vs. good teams. Doncic has scored at least 30 points in seven of his last eight Saturday games against teams above-.500.
Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic cradles the rock vs. Bucks' PF Giannis Antetokounmpo at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (John Fisher/Getty Images)
The 3-pointer is the most important thing in basketball nowadays and the Mavs are perhaps the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. Dallas has a better wide-open 3-point-attempt rate on both ends of the floor. The Mavs are +4.9 in made 3s per game and the Bucks are +1.9.
Finally, the oddsmakers are predicting Mavericks-Bucks will be a close game and Dallas has the highest clutch net rating in the NBA. "Clutch" is when there's a 5-point margin inside the last five minutes of regulation. Luka is shooting 72.7% in the clutch as well.