Musgrove Is A Must Bet Tonight Against Cardinals

Padres vs. Cardinals, 7:45 ET

This hasn't been the cleanest month of the season for me - both with baseball and WNBA. The Olympics brought a welcome break and change for some betting, and football is almost here, but I still want to end this baseball season strong. With just September remaining before we arrive at playoff baseball, I still want to bank some victories and build up our bankroll during the week. I'll look to do that here as the Padres take on the Cardinals tonight in St. Louis. 

I've had a love-hate relationship with the Padres for most of the past two seasons. I was expecting that they would be one of the best teams in baseball for the past two years. Last season they never quite got things together, but consider that they have three prime players that could be one of the best on almost any team. Additionally, last year, they had the NL Cy Young winner, plus Yu Darvish and tonight's starter Joe Musgrove. That team didn't even sniff the playoffs last year and was quite a disappointment. They went into this year tweaking the roster - they essentially traded Blake Snell for Dylan Cease. The offense is basically the same since last season, but they have collectively played well this year. I think the bigger thing is the campaign from guys like Jackson Merrill, Jurickson Profar, and Jake Cronenworth have made a huge impact and took some of the responsibility off of the bigger-named players. As mentioned, Musgrove is taking the ball today. He has been on the injured list for a lot of the season, missing all of June and July. He has returned and made three starts, with the best of them coming in his most recent outing, going seven innings and allowing just one hit, no runs, and striking out nine hitters. The bad news is that Cardinals hitters have gotten the best of Musgrove over the years with Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt combining to hit 18-for-37 against him, but only four of those hits have been for extra bases. 

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Speaking of last year, I was fully expecting the Cardinals to be one of the best teams in the National League. They thoroughly disappointed me by coming in last place within the division. They then followed up the start of this year looking like they were going to be terrible once again. The front office did its part by trying to address the bad starting rotation, but that hasn't been quite enough. Arenado and Goldschmidt both look, to me, like they are slowing down and aging, so the superstar duo is not as effective as it once was. The team has bene hit with injuries, but so has almost every other team. It will be interesting to see what they do as they are currently under .500 and their once decent playoff hopes are all but gone. Tonight they send out Andre Pallante to take on the Padres. For the season, he has decent enough numbers at a 6-6 record with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Pallante is mostly a ground ball hitter so he does give up a lot of contact, but he will also strikeout about four or five guys per game usually. He has been steady for the red birds the last two months with four quality starts over his last eight outings, and just two poor starts. When he was in the bullpen earlier in the year, he did face the Padres and produced one clean inning of work for St. Louis. Overall, the Padres are 6-for-22 against Pallante in his career.

I do like how both pitchers are throwing right now and think that this game is more likely to be an under than an over. However, I think Musgrove could be the key to the Padres success this season. There is a real possibility that he is going to be a difference maker now in the Wild Card/Division race, and in the playoffs. He has dominant stuff when he is locked in. Sure, his track record against Cardinals hitters is a bit concerning, but it feels like he bends but doesn't break against them. I'll back the Padres to keep rolling and win this one.

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