Move Over Football, Best Bets For The PGA TOUR's Procore Championship 2024

Oh, you thought I would stop losing money betting golf after the TOUR Championship and once football started? Wrong. I plan on losing a bunch of money on the PGA TOUR's FedExCup Fall schedule (just kidding, kind of), which begins this week with the Procore Championship 2024 at the Silverado Resort in Napa Valley, California. 

Hand up: My PGA TOUR 2024 betting performance was a disgrace. It was so bad I had to donate blood and semen and get a second job teaching English to foreign exchange students. Okay, that's another joke. However, I donked off -2.25 units (u) at the 2024 TOUR Championship and my PGA TOUR bankroll is -48.93u. 

Yet, despite losing a year's worth of rent money betting golf during the regular season and playoffs, I'm gambling on the FedExCup Fall schedule. Or, at least a few events, until I have no more blood and semen to donate, and the NFL takes ultimate priority. That said, here are my 2024 Procore (formerly known as the "Fortinet") Championship picks you can fade or follow.

Procore Championship 2024 Betting Card

Picks To Win 

The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks at the time of writing, according to OddsChecker.com. 

Eric Cole (+4000) 

Cole found his 2022-23 PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year winning form at the end of the regular-season. He finished in the top 20 in four of his last eight starts, including a T6 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, T7 at the John Deere Classic, and T7 at the Wyndham Championship. The Rocket Mortgage is played at a crossover course to Silverado, the Detroit Golf Club. 

More importantly, Cole’s short-game and iron-play have been on point lately. According to DataGolf.com, Cole has gained strokes with his putter and irons in seven of his eight starts and gained strokes around-the-green in eight of his last nine. 

Eric Cole is my best bet to win the 2024 Procore Championship at the Silverado Resort in Napa Valley, California. (Joseph Cress-Imagn Images)

Over the last 36 rounds, he leads this field in Par 5 scoring, per Fantasy National. Par 5 scoring is important on all par-72 courses, especially at Silverado, where scoring is easy. Hence, Cole can use his solid short-game to save par on the par-3 and -4s while making birdies, and hopefully eagles, on the par-5s. 

The 36-year-old’s biggest weakness is driving accuracy, but Silverado has some of the least penalizing rough on TOUR. For instance, Cole gained strokes off-the-tee (OTT) even though his driving distance and accuracy were worse than the field average. 

Last year, Cole finished fourth in the then-Fortinet Championship despite losing strokes on the greens. Finally, if he can match this year’s putting with last year’s tee-to-green-play around Silverado, Cole can finally win his first PGA TOUR event this week. 

BET 0.5u on Eric Cole (+4500) at FanDuel to profit 22.5u 

_____________________________

J.J. Spaun (+3000) 

Spaun’s only career win on TOUR was the 2022 Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio, a comp course to Silverado. J.J. has sucked for the most part this year. But, he, like Cole, played well to end the season. Spaun has three top-10s over his last six starts, such as a T10 at the Rocket Mortgage, T9 at the 3M Open, and T3 at the Wyndham. 

J.J. Spaun in action during the 2023 Procore (formerly known as the "Fortinet") Championship at Silverado Resort and Spa in Napa, California. (Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

Finally, Spaun is first in my 20-round model at Bet The Number. He is second in this field for Strokes Gained (SG): Approach (APP) and Par 5 scoring, 15th in APP shots from 100-150 yards, and 15th in SG: Putting. Iron-play is the most predictive skill for golf betting and there is a higher rate of APP shots from 100-150 yards at Silverado compared to the TOUR average.

BET 0.75u on J.J. Spaun (+3000) at BetMGM to profit 22.5u 

_____________________________

Michael Thorbjornsen (+8000)

As PGA TOUR University’s valedictorian, Thorbjornsen earned his full-time pro status for the Traveler’s Championship in June, finishing T39. He’s missed the cut in four of his other six starts with a T2 (the John Deere) and T61 (Barracuda Championship) in his other. Thorbjornsen doesn’t have enough rounds to qualify for the PGA TOUR’s 2024 stats. 

Michael Thorbjornsen hits an approach shot from the fairway on the third hole of the 2024 Travelers Championship golf tournament at TPC River Highlands in Connecticut. (Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports)

Nonetheless, the Stanford Cardinal’s game is a great fit for Silverado. His 56.5% Par 5 birdie-or-better average would be fourth on TOUR for the full season. Thorbjornsen’s 27.4% birdie-or-better average would be second behind Scottie Scheffler. His proximity to the hole on APP shots from 100-125 yards is 17-foot-4, which would tie him for 14th on TOUR for the year. 

BET 0.3u on Michael Thorbjornsen (+8000) at Caesars Sportsbook to profit 24u 

_____________________________

Finishing Position Bets 

Make placement bets at BetMGM or DraftKings. BetMGM never applies "dead heat" rules. DraftKings has top-5, -10, and -20 bets that "include ties" for the Procore Championship 2024. 

Neal Shipley Top-20 (+260) at BetMGM: 0.65u to win 1.69u 

Shipley won "low amateur" at The Masters and U.S. Open, becoming the seventh golfer to do so. After the end of the PGA TOUR’s regular season, Shipley kept his game sharp by competing on the PGA TOUR Americas, formerly known as "PGA TOUR Canada". Shipley made the cut in three of his four PGA TOUR Americas events, with a T2 at the Manitoba Open and third at the CRMC Championship. 

Over his last 20 rounds with shot-link data, Shipley ranks 11th on my Bet The Number model. He is 14th in SG: OTT, and seventh in APP from 100-150 yards. Shipley is another young golfer who joined the TOUR too late this year for his stats to qualify. But, his 4.47 Par 5 scoring average would be tied for second for a full year, and his Par 5 birdie-or-better rate is nearly 7% higher than the TOUR average. 

Rico Hoey Top-20 (+225) at BetMGM: 0.70u to win 1.58u 

The USC Trojan is eighth on my 20-round model at Bet The Number. Over that span, Hoey is 15th in SG: OTT, 22nd in SG: APP, 16th in SG: Putting, and fifth in Par 5 scoring. Moreover, Rico is second in Par 5 scoring average on TOUR this year. Hoey has three top-10s in his last six starts, including T6 at the Rocket Mortgage, T2 at the ISCO Championship, T8 at the Barracuda, and T14 at the Valero Texas Open. 

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.