Motivation Be Damned, Bears Are Covering At Packers In Lambeau Sunday
It's deja vu all over again for the Green Bay Packers (8-8) Sunday. This is the 2nd straight season where all the Packers need to do is win in Week 18 and they are in the NFC playoffs. Their long-time rival, Chicago Bears (7-9), will try to spoil Green Bay's playoff hopes when they stop by Lambeau Field.
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The Packers rolled the Bears 38-20 in Week 1. Green Bay QB Jordan Love completed 15-of-27 throws for 245 yards with 3 TDs to 0 INT. Chicago QB Justin Fields turned the ball over twice (1 INT and 1 FUM) and took four sacks. But, that was a different Bears team.
Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love throws a pass against the Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago. (Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Chicago's defense is elite since trading for pass rusher Montez Sweat prior to Week 9. Over that span, the Bears are 2nd in defensive EPA/play and 4th in success rate allowed. Chicago CB Jaylon Johnson and LB T.J. Edwards rank 1st and 6th in their respective positions, per Pro Football Focus.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers odds (PointsBet)
Since Week 9, the Bears are 5-3 straight up (SU) and 6-2-1 against the spread (ATS). Also, this game reminds me of the Detroit Lions at Packers game in Week 18 last season. Again, Green Bay needed to win to clinch a playoff berth and the Lions got eliminated from playoff contention earlier that Sunday.
But, like Chicago this season, Detroit was red-hot to end 2022. From Week 9 on last year, the Lions were 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS. Detroit's momentum carried into this season and the Lions won their 1st NFC North title ever in Week 16.
Chicago Bears DE Montez Sweat sacks Browns QB Joe Flacco at Cleveland Browns Stadium in Ohio. (Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
Another key to Chicago's recent improvement is Fields. His numbers aren't eye-popping but Fields is making fewer mistakes. Plus, he may have been onto something when calling out his coaches prior to Week 3. For the record, I thought Fields was tripping at the time. But, I admit he was right.
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Furthermore, the Bears have a strength-on-weakness edge over the Packers on the ground. Chicago is 2nd in ESPN's run-blocking win rate and 2nd in rushing yards per game. While Green Bay's defense is 26th opponent's yards per rush.
Ultimately, the Bears are peaking while the Packers are limping down the stretch. Chicago is 7th in weighted schedule-adjusted efficiency (DVOA), per Aaron Schatz from FTNFantasy.com, and Green Bay is 20th.