Mortal 'Locks' For Thursday's NBA Playoff Games: Knicks-76ers, Bucks-Pacers

I scratched out a winning night in the 2024 NBA Playoffs Tuesday. I went 2-1 for a +0.88 unit (u) profit. My 1.5u-bet on the New York Knicks -4 lost when the Philadelphia 76ers made a miracle comeback in the final minute of Game 5. I got most of that back by adding a 0.55u-bet via X to my 1.1u wager on the Orlando Magic +5 in a 104-103 loss at the Cleveland Cavaliers Thursday. 

Then it turned into a winning night when the Milwaukee Bucks hammered the Indiana Pacers 115-92 in Game 5. Instead of forcing bets, I took Wednesday off. Since I couldn't possibly take two nights off from betting the NBA, I'm getting back out there Thursday. Let's figure out how to make some money in the Bucks-Pacers and Knicks-76ers Game 6's. 

NBA Playoffs 2024 Betting Card: Thursday, May 2 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Milwaukee Bucks (+6) at Indiana Pacers, 6:30 p.m. ET

The Bucks opened as +9.5 underdogs and fell to the current odds when All-Stars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard were upgraded to "questionable" for Game 6. Dame remains "questionable" on the NBA's 3:30 p.m. ET injury report and Giannis has been downgraded to "doubtful". Regardless of Lillard's and Giannis's status, I'm fading this Pacers team without playoff experience. 

As I mentioned when betting Milwaukee in Game 4, Doc Rivers' teams overperform when they are missing their best players. Bucks SF Khris Middleton has been the best player in this series. Middleton is averaging a series-best 26.8 points per game (PPG) with 9.4 rebounds. Milwaukee C Brook Lopez is scoring 17.2 PPG and PF Bobby Portis is putting up 15.8 PPG and grabbing 10.6 rebounds. 

Milwaukee Bucks SF Khris Middleton shoots a fadeaway over Indiana Pacers PF Obi Toppin in Game 5 of the 1st round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Fiserv Forum in Wisconsin. (Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports)

Essentially, the Bucks have more guys they can count on. If Dame plays in Game 6, they could have the two best players on the floor. Aside from PF Pascal Siakam, the Pacers don't have anyone with experience in "close-out" games. Maybe Indy eliminates Milwaukee Thursday. However, I'll take my chances that the Pacers won't cover the spread. 

BET 1.08u on Milwaukee +6 (-108) at FanDuel. The Bucks are playable down to +3 if Damian Lillard plays. 

• Despite my confidence in Milwaukee, I'd wait until the official starting 5's are announced before locking in a bet. I'm not convinced Lillard plays in Game 6 and, again, Giannis is "doubtful". If they don't play, the Bucks will likely close at +8 or higher.

_____________________________

New York Knicks (+3) at Philadelphia 76ers, 9 p.m. ET

I whiffed Tuesday when I gave out a 1.5u-bet on the Knicks to eliminate the Sixers in Game 5. Is that going to scare me off backing NYK again? Absolutely not. New York held a 6-point lead with roughly 30 seconds remaining and Philadelphia All-Star combo guard Tyrese Maxey did a Reggie Miller impression to steal the game 112-106 in overtime. 

Furthermore, the 76ers need Maxey to carry them because Joel Embiid is running on fumes. Whether it be conditioning, Bell's palsy, or a banged-up knee, Embiid is less than 100%. Plus, the Knicks are doing the little things better in this series. New York is +6.8 in second-chance PPG, +4.2 in fastbreak PPG, and +6.0 in paint PPG. 

Even with their injuries, NYK has more guys they can rely on. All Philly has is an injured Embiid and Maxey, who is an animal. While Knicks bigs Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson can make Embiid work in different ways. Hartenstein brings a lot to the table offensively and Robinson is one of the best rim-protecting defensive bigs in the NBA. 

Philadelphia 76ers C Joel Embiid operates out of the post vs. New York Knicks C Mitchell Robinson during the Game 5 of the 1st round of the 2024 NBA playoffs at Madison Square Garden. (Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)

New York wing Josh Hart leads the series in rebounds and SF OG Anunoby is the best defender on either team. Knicks All-Star PG Jalen Brunson is the best player in this series. Brunson is scoring a series-best 34.4 PPG and throwing a series-best 8.4 assists per game. If New York's role players hit some threes, the Knicks will advance to the 2nd round Thursday. 

BET 1.08u on the Knicks +3 (-108) at DraftKings. Give me New York down to a pick 'em. 

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.