More Rested Auburn Will Take Down Mississippi State

Mississippi State vs. Auburn, 1:00 ET

Yesterday, I decided to look toward the Big 10 for a play. It wasn't a terrible choice, but it didn't get me a win either. I gave out Purdue as a -6.5 favorite, and it closed at something like -8.5 depending on where you looked. The game was closer than I expected, and the Boilermakers were only able to win the game by five points. That was a loss and the first one I've had in five plays over the past few days. I'm really going to miss this college hoops season. Hopefully we can keep it going here with a game between Mississippi State and Auburn. 

Mississippi State comes into this game after taking down their first two SEC games - one against LSU in a reasonably even matchup between the two squads, and one against Tennessee. We need to dissect that game a little bit here. Tennessee was ranked #5 in the nation and lost to Mississippi State by 17 points. A loss by one between those two squads would've been bad, but losing by 17 is terrible. The majority of the damage was done in the first half as Mississippi State was able to hold the Volunteers to just 19 points in the first half. Mississippi State did shoot well, going 55.3% from the field, but their defense seemed to be the difference maker, and that's good news because that is a little more replicable than offensive efficiency. Now they get to face an Auburn team that they've already played twice this season. In the first game, they beat Auburn 64-58 on their home floor. In the second one, on the road, they lost by 15 points. Mississippi State has a solid three-headed monster with Josh Hubbard, a guard that is a somewhat efficient shooter, Tolu Smith, a double-double forward, and Cameron Matthews, a defensive thread but also solid offensive option down low. 

Auburn fan had enough with officials during the win over South Carolina 

The biggest key for this game is for Auburn to be a defensive front against the big forwards that Mississippi State will throw at them. It shouldn't be a problem for them as they have two very active and strong forwards of their own with Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams. Broome averages 16.3 points and 8.5 rebounds for Auburn and can neutralize the scoring of the two forwards from Mississippi State if he gets lucky. The problem will be working to keep the boards under control. In the game that Auburn lost to Mississippi State, they were outrebounded 45-30. That's too many to allow to your opponent. They had eight more offensive rebounds than Auburn which extends plays and is demoralizing to your team. To exemplify the importance, Mississippi State took only one more field goal attempt and just two more free throws than Auburn and they won the game by six. In the second matchup, Auburn was still outrebounded, but this time it was by just six. They balanced that by forcing Mississippi State into three more turnovers. 

One advantage might be rest in this game. Auburn has only had to play one game so far, and this will be the third game for Mississippi State. There is a lot of talk about matchups and the path to get to the championship game, but people tend to forget the toll playing every day takes you. Most of these college teams aren't that deep and that means your key players get more and more exhausted. I'll take Auburn to cover the -7.5 in this game. I think they will be prepared and ready to not be shocked like Tennessee was today. Back Auburn to win and cover this one. 

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