Monday Night Football Week 11 Best Bets: 49ers Vs. Cardinals
The NFL takes a trip south of the border when Mexico City hosts Week 11's Monday Night Football matchup between the San Francisco 49ers (5-4) and Arizona Cardinals (4-6) at Estadio Azteca.
San Francisco has been steamed up by the market to 10-point favorites after opening at -7.5 in the consensus market. That said, I placed bets on a couple of NFL player props and the total in this NFC West showdown.
MNF Player Prop #1: 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk OVER 54.5 receiving yards (-120)
Aiyuk is Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo's go-to wideout. He leads San Francisco in targets (62), receptions (44), receiving yards (567), receiving TDs (four), and catch rate among Niners WRs (71.0%).
Furthermore, Pro Football Focus (PFF) gives Aiyuk the biggest edge in his WR-CB matchup in NFL Week 11. Aiyuk went for 89 receiving yards on 6 catches for 1 TD in his last game vs. Arizona in Week 9 last season.
San Francisco 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk in action against the Arizona Cardinals at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. (Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
It was Aiyuk's only game of three against the Cardinals where he caught more than two passes and gained more than 32 receiving yards. However, Aiyuk's QBs in those other two games were C.J. Beathard and Trey Lance.
Maybe Aiyuk is just the forgotten man in San Francisco's offense lineup with Pro Bowlers RB Christian McCaffery, WR Deebo Samuel, and TE George Kittle. But, Jimmy G doesn't forget about him.
Aiyuk is PFF's ninth-highest graded WR (out of 119 tracked WRs) and he has gained at least 58 receiving yards in six of Garappolo's eight games played in 2022.
BET: Aiyuk OVER 54.5 receiving yards (-120) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Prop #2: Cardinals RB James Conner UNDER 49.5 rushing yards (-115)
According to PFF, Arizona has the second-worst run-blocking mismatch of this week. "The Cardinals have offensive line issues at four out of the five spots," says OutKick's Dr. David Chao.
More importantly, San Francisco has the best rushing defense in the NFL by yards per rush allowed (3.4) while Conner ranks 46th at 3.8 yards per rush. Conner has rushed for 45 yards or less in four of his seven games this season.
Granted, Conner did receive his biggest workload in Arizona's Week 10 victory over the Los Angeles Rams because the Cardinals were missing Murray. He carried the ball 21 times albeit for an inefficient 69 yards (3.3 yards per rush).
The San Francisco 49ers tackle Arizona Cardinals RB James Conner during the game at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. (Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)
Conner didn't play in the first 49ers-Cardinals meeting this season but has rushed for 43 and 29 yards in two of his three career games vs. San Francisco.
I'd be looking to play more Arizona Unders if they were available because of Cardinals QB Kyler Murray's game status and these meetings have been lower-scoring games in recent years. But, beggars can't be choosers so I'll take what I can get.
BET: Conner UNDER 49.5 receiving yards (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook
UNDER 43.5 in Cardinals-49ers (-110)
First of all, Arizona announced as I was writing this up that Murray will officially be sidelined for this game. Without Murray under center, I don't see how the Cardinals have success against this stout Niner's defense.
Also, Primetime Unders have been "easy money" so far this season: 12-20-1 Over/Under in 2022. Plus three of the last four 49ers-Cardinals meetings have gone Under the total by an average of 10.0 points per game.
On top of that, San Francisco's offense runs the fifth-slowest pace in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders. I don't see Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan showing any of his "good plays" if this game is as one-sided as the spread suggests it'll be.
Lastly, there's a "line freeze" in the betting market. DraftKings is reporting via VSIN that roughly 70% of the action is on the Over but the total hasn't budged from the opener. In fact, the look-ahead total for 49ers-Cardinals is 45.