MLB Wednesday 'Locks' Include Last 2 World Series Champs
Wednesday is typically the worst day to give out MLB picks publicly since there are a ton of day games. That didn't stop me from getting to the window on a couple of the late games.
After a 2-1 Tuesday, my 2023 MLB betting record is 21-16 with a +10.4% return on investment. Below, I'll give out two MLB looks for Wednesday in the Braves vs. Padres and Blue Jays vs. Astros series finales.
Atlanta Braves (14-4) at San Diego Padres (8-11)
Betting odds for the Braves-Padres 3-game series finale Wednesday, April 19th from DraftKings.
The only arguments for Atlanta losing its three-game series finale with San Diego include "the Braves are due for a loss," "Padres are too good to get swept," and "the Braves won their previous five road games and don't need this one".
But, Atlanta has a massive three-phase edge over San Diego in starting and relief pitching and batting. Braves send out starting RHP Charlie Morton (2-1, 3.86 ERA) and Padres give RHP Nick Martinez (0-1, 5.60 ERA) the nod Wednesday.
Braves RHP Charlie Morton delivers a pitch vs. the Cardinals at Busch Stadium in St Louis, Missouri. (Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
Take my word for it since I don't feel like spilling ink over this but Morton is a much better starter than Martinez. Also, Atlanta's bullpen crushes San Diego's in WAR (1.0-0.3), ERA (4.05-2.79), and K-BB% (18.6-12.3%), per FanGraphs.
Then there's this PSA from Padres All-Star Manny Machado below. While I agree with Machado in the sense that San Diego's lineup will turn it around. Fernando Tatis Jr. is returning from suspension soon and Juan Soto will bust his slump eventually.
However, the fact remains that the Padres' sluggers have been significantly underperforming. Atlanta's lineup out-ranks San Diego's in WAR (4.0-1.3), wRC+ (117-91), wOBA, .365-.307), and hard-hit rate (37.7-27.7%).
The cherry on top of my pro-Braves handicap are the betting splits. Atlanta opened with a +100 moneyline (ML) and has been steamed up to a clear favorite. My rule of thumb with MLB betting splits is squares don't move regular-season odds.
MLB Bet #1: Braves (-120) ML at DraftKings Sportsbook
The Atlanta Braves' odds at the San Diego Padres on Wednesday, April 19th from DraftKings as of 10:12 a.m. ET.
Toronto Blue Jays (11-7) at Houston Astros (8-10)
Betting odds for Blue Jays-Astros on MLB Wednesday, April 19th from DraftKings.
Uhhhhh... what? Maybe I'm a sucker but why are the Astros a slight 'dog at home vs. the Blue Jays? I get that Houston is sub-.500 and its starter Wednesday, RHP Luis Garcia (0-2, 7.71 ERA), is off to a terrible start.
But, Toronto's starting RHP Jose Berrios (1-2, 7.98 ERA) Wednesday is awful on the road. Both of Berrios' losses this season are on the road and he has a 11.17 ERA in those starts (1.80 home ERA) and a 1.86 WHIP (0.80 road WHIP).
Per Statcast, Berrios has a 25.2% K-rate in 103 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Astros hitters with a .279/.353/.517 expected slash line. In 59 PA vs. current Blue Jays batters, Garcia has a .240/.289/.406 expected slash line with a 32.2% K-rate.
Blue Jays RHP Jose Berrios reacts during the 4th inning vs. the Red Sox at Fenway Park in Boston. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
That said, I'm ditching my MLB-betting splits rationale from above. There is more money and bets placed on Houston yet the line is moving toward Toronto, which is sketchy.
Since I cannot reverse engineer that line movement, I'm willing to fade it rather than follow it. The Astros and Blue Jays bullpens are equal both from a statistical and rest standpoint.
Toronto's lineup is better vs. right-handed pitching but Houston's lineup has a slightly higher WAR (2.9-2.8). Garcia pitches better against righties than lefties and the Blue Jays' best hitters are right-handed.
MLB Bet #2: Astros (+100) ML at DraftKings
The Houston Astros' ML odds vs. the Toronto Blue Jays as of 10:45 a.m. ET from DraftKings.