Three MLB 'Locks' Wednesday: Mariners-Padres, Royals-Cardinals, Blue Jays-Giants
About effing time, am I right? I spent this past weekend getting my junk kicked in betting on MLB but rallied with a 3-0 performance Tuesday. My first two winners were rocking chair covers. The Philadelphia Phillies spanked the Los Angeles Dodgers 10-1 and the New York Mets held off the Washington Nationals 7-5.
Yet, the San Francisco Giants had a 9th-inning comeback win over the Toronto Blue Jays capped with a walk-off on a wild pitch. Regardless, a wise man once said: "Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good". Hopefully, that good luck carries into Wednesday since I'm running it back with three best bets.
MLB Bet Slip: July 10
- 1.1 units (u) on OVER 7.5 -110 in Mariners vs. Padres (BetMGM).
- 1u on the Royals +100 moneyline at Cardinals (DraftKings).
- 1.55u on the Giants -155 moneyline vs. Blue Jays (BetMGM).
Seattle Mariners (50-43) at San Diego Padres (49-46), 6:40 p.m. ET
This is an anti-sharp play. San Diego's starter Wednesday, RHP Michael King (7-5, 3.51 ERA), and Seattle's starting RHP Bryce Miller (6-7, 3.84 ERA) are solid, and Petco Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in MLB. But, there are plenty of Over-friendly trends for both starters.
The Padres are 6-2 Over/Under (O/U) in King's home starts this year with a +1.8 O/U margin. In Miller's road starts, the Mariners are 6-2 O/U with a +2.2 O/U margin. Seattle is 10-3-3 O/U as a road underdog vs. righty starters. San Diego is 19-7-1 O/U as home favorites against right-handed starters too.
San Diego Padres OF Jurickson Profar hits an RBI double vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park. (Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports)
Finally, the Padres are top-10 in home runs, wRC+, and wOBA over the past two weeks, according to FanGraphs. They have combined for 8+ runs in seven of their last 10 games, including four straight. Meanwhile, there have been 8+ runs scored in three consecutive Mariners games and six of the last eight.
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Game 2: Kansas City Royals (49-43) at St. Louis Cardinals (48-42), 7:45 p.m. ET
This is the second of a Royals-Cardinals doubleheader Wednesday. KC starts RHP, and former Cardinals, Michael Wacha (5-6, 3.74 ERA). St. Louis counters with rookie RHP Gordon Graceffo, making his first MLB start. Wacha played for St. Louis from 2013-19 and gets up for games against his former team. He is 2-0 vs. the Cardinals from 2022-23 with a 2.19 ERA.
Wacha has a nasty changeup-fastball combination. His changeup is 12.0 mph slower than his fastball, according to Statcast. Plus, St. Louis 1B Paul Goldschmidt, 3B Nolan Arenado, C Willson Contreras, and 2B Nolan Gorman have a .185 batting average or worse vs. changeups.
Lastly, his pitching peripherals indicate his record is "bad luck". The 12-year veteran's Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP") is better than his ERA, his hard-hit rate is 5.9% lower than the MLB average, and his exit velocity is 1.5 mph slower. I say this often, but FIP is more predictive than ERA because it removes factors outside the pitcher's control.
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Toronto Blue Jays (41-50) at San Francisco Giants (45-47), 9:45 p.m. ET
I'm not going to overthink this game. Giants starting RHP Logan Webb (7-6, 3.09 ERA) is easy money at home. Since 2021, the Giants are 38-17 in Webb's home starts and +14.8u. As home favorites against teams with a losing record and Webb on the mound, San Francisco is 20-6 and +10.2u over that span.
The Giants are five games above-.500 vs. right-handed starters and the Blue Jays are five games below. Also, San Francisco's bullpen is 3rd in xFIP and tied for seventh in K-BB%, according to FanGraphs. While Toronto's bullpen is 25th in K-BB% and 24th in xFIP.
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