MLB Tuesday's Best Bet Trifecta: Yankees, Rangers And Mariners-Padres Total
We got a little momentum heading into Tuesday after hitting both MLB bets to start the week. As of June 5th, my MLB betting record climbed to 38-36 but I'm still down -0.15 units (u).
After spending hours looking for edges, I've settled on three wagers I'm willing to stake my reputation on. My looks in MLB Tuesday are for the White Sox-Yankees, Cardinals-Rangers, and Mariners-Padres tilts.
MLB Tuesday Action
Chicago White Sox (26-35) at New York Yankees (36-25)
Betting odds for the White Sox vs. the Yankees in MLB Tuesday from DraftKings.
The Yankees have a three-phase edge over the White Sox Tuesday in starting and relief pitching and batting. Chicago RHP Lucas Giolito (4-4, 4.08 ERA) and NYY RHP Clarke Schmidt (2-5, 5.01 ERA) are the starters Tuesday.
Giolito is more well-known but Schmidt has better stuff. In fact, according to FanGraphs, Schmidt ranks 23rd in Stuff+ in between Dodgers' legend Clayton Kershaw and Phillies ace Zack Wheeler.
Schmidt has allowed three or fewer earned runs in eight of his 12 starts this season. The other four starters were against the Rays, Rangers, Orioles, and Angels, all of which have winning records.
Yankees RHP Clarke Schmidt delivers a pitch vs. the Mariners at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. (Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports)
Giolito is 1-3 on the road (3-1 at home) with a 5.58 road ERA (2.70 home ERA), a 1.64 road WHIP (0.93 home WHIP), and a 5.00 road K/BB rate (2.43 home K/BB) in 2023.
Also, NYY's bullpen is top-10 in FIP ("fielding independent pitching"), WAR, and HR/9 rate, per FanGraphs. Chicago's bullpen on the other hand is bottom-10 in all of those advanced pitching stats.
The Yankees are 11-1 as home favorites of -150 or greater vs. right-handed starters. While the White Sox are 4-11 as road 'dogs vs. righty starters. Chicago's lineup is 26th in wRC+, 27th in wOBA, and 24th in ISO vs. right-handed pitching, per FanGraphs.
MLB Bet #1: 1.55u on the Yankees (-155) at DraftKings
St. Louis Cardinals (25-36) at Texas Rangers (39-20)
Betting odds for the Cardinals vs. the Rangers in MLB Tuesday from DraftKings.
I'm heat checkin' the red-hot Rangers. They beat St. Louis 4-3 in the series opener Monday. The Rangers have won eight of their past 10 games while the Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
But, so far in June, Texas's lineup is 1st in wRC+ (174), WAR (2.0), and wOBA (.421). St. Louis's lineup has a .305 wOBA, 94 wRC+, and 0.1 WAR over that span.
The Cardinals send out LHP Matthew Liberatore (1-1, 4.91 ERA) Tuesday. The Rangers are 5-1 at home against left-handed starters. Texas gives RHP Dane Dunning (4-1, 2.06 ERA) the ball and St. Louis is 3-9 as road 'dogs vs. righty starters.
Rangers starter Dane Dunning pitches against the Atlanta Braves at Globe Life Field. (Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports)
Dunning has been lights-out at home this season and his pitching peripherals support his basic numbers. In five games at home this season, Dunning is 2-0 with a 1.47 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and an 8.00 K/BB rate.
According to Statcast, four of Dunning's six-pitch arsenal has a negative run value (RV), which is a good thing. Dunning's sinker is one of the most effective pitches in MLB at -10 RV and his cutter has a -5 RV.
MLB Bet #2: 1.4u on the Rangers (-140) moneyline at DraftKings
Seattle Mariners (29-30) at San Diego Padres (28-32)
Betting odds for the Mariners vs. the Padres in MLB Tuesday from DraftKings.
The pitching matchup and ballpark set up well for the Mariners-Padres to go UNDER 7.5 (-105) total runs scored. Mariners RHP Logan Gilbert (3-3, 4.08 ERA) gets the nod Tuesday and Padres counter with RHP Joe Musgrove (3-2, 4.71 ERA).
Gilbert grades in the 80th percentile or better in chase rate, K%, BB%, extension, and expected ERA over expected wOBA, per Statcast. Musgrove is in the 85th percentile or better in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and chase rate.
Also, this should be a good bounce-back spot for Seattle's pitching staff. The Mariners have given up at least 10 runs in five of their last 10 games including four of the past six. But, they had an off-day Monday and could regroup.
Musgrove reacts after striking out Marlins IF Yuli Gurriel at loanDepot park in Miami. (Eric Espada/Getty Images)
With one day off, Seattle is 2-6 Over/Under (O/U) this season and both teams have top-5 bullpens. Per FanGraphs, the Mariners' relievers rank 2nd in FIP and 3rd in WAR. San Diego's bullpen is 5th in WAR and 7th in FIP.
Furthermore, Petco Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in MLB: 29th out of 30 in park factor, according to Statcast. The Padres are 9-20 O/U at home in 2023 with a -1.4 O/U margin.
Finally, the total for Mariners-Padres Tuesday is a Pros vs. Joe's scenario in the betting market. Per VSIN, more bets are on the Over at DraftKings but more than 80% of the cash is on the UNDER.