Fading Paul Skenes, 'Buying Low' On Braves For MLB Tuesday Best Bets

Published|Updated

Tuesday is a dead day in sports with MLB and WNBA (if that's your thing) the only things to bet. Game 3 of the 2024 NBA Finals tips off Wednesday and the 2024 U.S. Open on Thursday, which I'll have action on. With that in mind, I'm hoping to free-roll those sports with my winnings in MLB this week. 

I went 1-0-1 Monday, chopping the UNDER 7 wager on the Athletics-Padres with a 6-1 San Diego win and cashing my San Francisco moneyline bet when the Giants beat the Houston Astros 4-3 in extra innings. I'm up six-plus units this season and will keep this thing rolling until I start losing. Without further ado, let's get into my Tuesday action. 

MLB Betting Card: June 11 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Atlanta Braves (35-28) at Baltimore Orioles (43-22) 

DraftKings Odds 

  • Moneyline (ML): ATLANTA (-130) | Baltimore (+110)
  • Runline (RL): Braves -1.5 (+130) | Orioles +1.5 (-155)
  • Total — 7.5 — Over (-118) | Under (-102)

Starting Pitchers 

  • Atlanta Braves LHP Max Fried: 6-2 with a 2.93 ERA.
  • Baltimore Orioles RHP Albert Suarez: 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA.

BRAVES (-130) over Orioles

The days of Baltimore being overlooked are in the rearview. In 2023, the Orioles burst onto the scene, winning 101 games and winning the AL East. Entering Tuesday, Baltimore is 2.5 games back of the first-place Yankees, but that's only because New York has the second-best record in baseball. I say this because the Orioles as a home underdog feels like a "trap line" the public will fall for. 

Atlanta Braves lefty Max Fried pitches against the San Diego Padres at Truist Park in Georgia. (Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports)

Atlanta Braves lefty Max Fried pitches against the San Diego Padres at Truist Park in Georgia. (Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, we are "buying low" on Atlanta with its "stopper" (Fried) on the mound Tuesday. The Braves just lost three straight games to the lowly Washington Nationals. Fried is one of my favorite starting pitchers in the big leagues. He doesn't overpower hitters. Yet, according to Statcast, Fried is in the top 7% of MLB starters in hard-hit rate and top 2% in exit velocity. 

Baltimore returns home after an eight-game road trip and typically teams struggle in their first home game after a road stand. The Orioles played Monday and the Braves didn't play. Atlanta has won all three games this year with a rest edge. The off-day allows the Braves to rejuvenate their bullpen and relief pitching is the most important part of regular-season MLB. 

BET 1.3 units (u) on Atlanta's -130 ML at DraftKings. The Braves are playable up to -140. 

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Pittsburgh Pirates (31-34) at St. Louis Cardinals (31-33) 

FanDuel Odds 

  • ML: Pittsburgh (-134) | ST. LOUIS (+114) 
  • RL: Pirates -1.5 (+130) | Cardinals +1.5 (-156)
  • Total — 7.5 — Over (-108) | Under (-112)

Starting Pitchers 

  • Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Paul Skenes: 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA.
  • St. Louis Cardinals RHP Miles Mikolas: 4-6 with a 5.32 ERA.

CARDINALS (+114) over Pirates

I'm "selling high" on Skenes. He's the No. 1 overall pick of the 2024 MLB Draft and has mowed down major-league hitters in his first five MLB starts. However, he'll lose eventually and this is the second time the Pirates have been favorites in St. Louis over the last 10 years. I know OutKick readers love Skenes. That said, it's his first time as a road favorite and pitching in St. Louis. 

Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Paul Skenes fires one in vs. the San Francisco Giants at PNC Park in Pennsylvania. (Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Paul Skenes fires one in vs. the San Francisco Giants at PNC Park in Pennsylvania. (Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

Moreover, Mikolas has "quality starts" (six-plus innings pitched with three or fewer earned runs) in three consecutive outings and five of the last seven. The Cardinals have the edge if this is a one-run game when the relievers come in. St. Louis's bullpen is fifth in Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP"), which is more predictive than ERA, and Pittsburgh is 19th, per FanGraphs. 

Lastly, the Cardinals are much better vs. right-handed pitching. According to FanGraphs, St. Louis's lineup out-ranks Pittsburgh in wRC+ (104-82), wOBA (.312-.285), and ISO (.143-.118). Ultimately, the Cardinals are better in two of the three phases (hitting and relief pitching) and Skenes is due for a bad outing. 

BET 1u on St. Louis's +114 ML at FanDuel. The Cardinals are bet-able down to even money (+100). 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2024 betting record via X all season.