3 'Square' Bets For MLB Tuesday: Dodgers-Phillies, Nationals-Mets, Blue Jays-Giants

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There's a full 15-game slate in the MLB Tuesday featuring a game between two favorites to win the 2024 NL Pennant and the 2023 NL champions vs. the last NL team to win the World Series. As per usual, betting baseball has been a grind. Last week began profitable, then I went 3-5 from Friday to Sunday. 

My head has been bobbling below and above $0 in MLB gambling all year. Since football season is a couple of months out and the PGA TOUR is draining my bankroll, I need an MLB betting heater. Even though I'm not "chasing", I did land on a few square looks for Tuesday. 

MLB Best Bets For July 9

  • 1.4 units (u) on the Phillies -140 moneyline vs. Dodgers (Caesars)
  • 1.35u on the Mets -130 moneyline vs. Nationals (DraftKings).
  • 1.2u on the Giants -120 moneyline vs. Blue Jays (BetMGM).

Los Angeles Dodgers (55-36) at Philadelphia Phillies (47-64), 6:40 p.m. ET

Philly gives the ball to its ace, RHP Zack Wheeler (9-4, 2.74 ERA), a frontrunner in the 2024 NL Cy Young race. According to Statcast, Wheeler grades out in the 85th percentile in chase rate, hard-hit rate, and expected batting average. Wheeler is second in the NL in expected ERA, per FanGraphs. 

Meanwhile, the Dodgers start RHP Bobby Miller (1-1, 6.12 ERA), who has electric stuff but is only starting because of the injuries to Los Angeles's rotation. Since pitching 6-scoreless innings in his 2024 debut, Miller has an 8.05 ERA and 14/14 K/BB rate over five starts and the Dodgers are 2-3 in those games. 

The Phillies were off Monday and are 8-1 with a +3.0 scoring margin in games following an off-day. Also, they have better relief pitching. Per FanGraphs, Philadelphia's bullpen leads MLB in expected Fielding Independent Pitching ("xFIP"), which is more predictive than ERA because it removes factors outside the pitcher's control, and LA's 22nd. 

Washington Nationals (42-49) at New York Mets (44-45), 7:10 p.m. ET

Washington's starter Tuesday, RHP Jake Irvin (7-6, 2.80), had his best outing of the year in his last start vs. New York Thursday. Irvin pitched 8-scoreless innings with 1 H, 1 BB, and 8 K in the Nationals' 1-0 victory. A- I like fading non-elite pitchers after impressive outings. B- if Irvin can carve up the Mets again Tuesday, tip of the cap to him. 

Over the last 30 days, New York's lineup ranks in the top five for home runs, wRC+, wOBA, and WAR, according to FanGraphs. On paper, Irvin is having an awesome year, but he is due for regressions. Irvin's BAbip is 40 points lower than the MLB average (.294-.254) and his hard-hit rate is 3.4% higher (42.8-39.4%). 

Finally, Washington's lineup struggles against lefties and New York sends out LHP Jose Quintana (3-5, 4.22 ERA) Tuesday. Per FanGraphs, the Nationals rank 28th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, and ISO. Quintana got a no-decision in NYM's loss to Washington Thursday. He pitched 7-scoreless innings with 4 H, 3 BB, and 1 K. Quintana has a 1.86 ERA in his last five starts vs. the Nationals since 2022. 

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Toronto Blue Jays (41-49) at San Francisco Giants (44-47), 9:45 p.m. ET

Like a sucker, I'll "buy the dip" on the Giants and starting LHP Blake Snell (0-3, 9.51), who's off to a disastrous start in his first year in San Francisco while defending his 2023 NL Cy Young award. However, Snell's 11.8 K/9 rate is higher than his career average of 11.1, which is the best in MLB history. 

Giants LHP Blake Snell throws a pitch vs. the Nationals at Oracle Park in San Francisco. (Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports)

Giants LHP Blake Snell throws a pitch vs. the Nationals at Oracle Park in San Francisco. (Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports)

His BAbip is 112 points worse than the MLB average (.406-.294) and his exit velocity is 1.1 mph slower (88.4-87.3). Furthermore, the Giants have much better relief pitching. Toronto's bullpen is 24th in xFIP, 25th in K-BB%, and last in HR/9, according to FanGraphs. Whereas San Francisco's bullpen is top-10 in K-BB% and xFIP. 

Lastly, the Blue Jays start LHP Yusei Kikuchi (4-8, 4.12 ERA) Tuesday, but the Giants are more productive against left-handed pitching. Per FanGraphs, they are top-10 in wRC+ and wOBA vs. lefties with a higher hard-hit rate. Toronto is bottom-10 in wRC+ and wOBA and tied for the fewest home runs against southpaws (14). 

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