A 3-Pack Of MLB Thursday Best Bets: Cardinals-Pirates, Rays-Royals, Orioles-Mariners

Published|Updated

All 30 MLB teams step on the diamond Tuesday with baseball taking center stage in American sports until the Olympics (I'm not counting the Euro 2024 or the Copa América since Team USA is eliminated). 

More importantly, it's America's birthday week and it's time to give the nation's pastime a little love. After hitting both bets Sunday, I got back above-.500 for the MLB 2024 betting season. Let's run it back with a 3-game sweep Tuesday. 

MLB betting card for July 2 

  • 1 unit (u) on St. Louis Cardinals' moneyline (+100) at DraftKings vs. Pittsburgh Pirates.
  • 1u on Tampa Bay Rays' moneyline (+100) at FanDuel vs. Kansas City Royals.
  • 1.05u on Seattle Mariners' moneyline (-105) at FanDuel vs. the Baltimore Orioles.

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, 6:40 p.m. ET 

This is a Wrong Team Favored game. St. Louis's moneyline is +105 at DraftKings and Pittsburgh's is -125 as of 1:15 p.m. ET Tuesday. The starting pitching matchup is a toss-up, but the Cardinals have better relief pitching and are more productive against right-handed pitching. 

St. Louis RHP Kyle Gibson (5-3 with a 3.70 ERA) faces Pittsburgh RHP Mitch Keller (9-4 with a 3.20 ERA). Per Statcast, Gibson has a better K-BB% and expected batting average, weighted on-base rate, and slugging percentage in 70 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Pirates than Keller in his 145 PA against active Cardinals. 

Cardinals lock-down closer Ryan Helsley (56) pitches to the Cincinnati Reds at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. (Jeff Le-USA TODAY Sports)

Cardinals lock-down closer Ryan Helsley (56) pitches to the Cincinnati Reds at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. (Jeff Le-USA TODAY Sports)

Also, according to FanGraphs, St. Louis's bullpen is seventh in expected Fielding Independent Pitching ("xFIP") and Pittsburgh's ranks 24th. FIP is more predictive than ERA because it removes factors outside the pitcher's control and xFIP goes further. 

Over the last two weeks, Pittsburgh's lineup ranks 23rd or worse in BB/K rate, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+, per FanGraphs. Finally, against righties, the Pirates are 28th in both wOBA and wRC+ whereas the Cardinals are 11th and 10th in those metrics, respectively. 

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Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals, 8:10 p.m. ET

There's a good chance this game will be rained out, but if it happens, I love Tampa at even money (+100). The Rays have hotter bats lately and a slight edge in relief pitching, and Royals RHP Brady Singer (4-4 with a 3.12 ERA) is due for regression. 

Tampa Bay Rays LF Randy Arozarena hits a double vs. the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. (Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports)

Tampa Bay Rays LF Randy Arozarena hits a double vs. the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. (Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports)

Tampa Bay's lineup ranks seventh in wRC+ and eighth in wOBA over the last two weeks, per FanGraphs. While Kansas City's lineup is 25th in both wRC+ and wOBA during that stretch. Plus, the Rays' bullpen has a better WAR and xFIP. 

Rays starting RHP Zack Littell (2-5 with a 4.17 ERA) has better pitching peripherals than Singer. Littell has a better FIP and WAR despite his ERA being more than a full run higher. Per Statcast, Singer grades out in the bottom third of MLB starters for xERA, xBA, hard-hit rate, and whiff rate. 

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Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners, 9:40 p.m. ET 

Seattle RHP George Kirby (7-5, 3.35 ERA) takes the mound Tuesday and he is one of my favorite starters to bet on. Kirby is 10-0 in his career as a short home favorite (-130 or less). 

The Mariners and Kirby beat the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers with ace RHP Nathan Eovaldi starting in June and the Houston Astros with future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander on the mound in April. 

Furthermore, Kirby has a lower FIP (3.03) and xFIP (3.33) than ERA (3.35), which suggests his numbers are due for progression. This year, Kirby is 5-1 at home with a 2.34 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and one home run allowed. Baltimore's starter Tuesday, RHP Grayson Rodriguez (9-3, 3.72 ERA) is 4-2 on the road but has a 5.35 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. 

Lastly, there is a "line freeze" in the betting market. According to Pregame.com, nearly 90% of the money is on the first-place Orioles as of 1:45 p.m. ET Tuesday. Yet, the odds haven't moved from the opener. The sportsbooks are baiting more pro-Baltimore bets because they agree with me that Kirby at home is the sharper wager. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2024 betting record via X all season.