MLB Tuesday 'Locks' Include Two 'Dogs In Division Games

Honestly, I didn't expect to be making MLB picks for a second straight day. After successfully betting MLB from 2017-2021, the past two seasons have sucked. My Futures and projections of teams were profitable. The daily MLB handicapping grind is not so good. Yet, I hit both of my MLB bets for Memorial Day and figured, "Why not run it back"?

MLB Bet Slip: Tuesday, May 28th 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Boston Red Sox (27-27) at Baltimore Orioles (34-18), 6:35 p.m. ET 

Caesars Odds 

• Moneyline (ML): BOSTON (+143) | Baltimore (-170)
• Run Line (RL): Red Sox +1.5 (-148) | Orioles -1.5 (+122)
• Total — 8 — Over (-115) | Under (-105)

Starting Pitchers 

• Boston Red Sox RHP Brayan Bello (5-2 with a 4.04 ERA). Bello beat the Tampa Bay Rays 8-5 Wednesday in 6.0 innings pitched (IP), allowing 3 ER on 4 H and 4 BB with 6 K. He lost to the Orioles 7-1 April 9th, throwing 5.1 IP with 1 ER (3 R), 4 H, 2 BB, and 3 K.
• Baltimore Orioles RHP Grayson Rodriguez (5-1 with a 3.20 ERA). Rodriguez won his last outing at the Chicago White Sox 8-6 Thursday. He threw 5.0 innings, gave up 2 ER on 3 H and a 7/5 K/BB rate. Rodriguez got a no-decision in Baltimore's 9-4 win over Boston April 11. He had 5.2 IP with 2 ER, 6H, 2 BB, and 5 K.

Boston Red Sox RHP Brayan Bello throws vs. the Baltimore Orioles during the 1st inning at Fenway Park. (Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports)

Red Sox (+143) over Orioles 

While I agree that Rodriguez is a better starter, I disagree about how much. The "break-even" probability for +140 odds is 41.2% and Bello wins this game at least 45% of the time. Also, Baltimore’s lineup is slightly better but neck-and-neck vs. right-handed pitching. Boston’s bullpen is second in Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP"), which is more predictive than ERA. 

However, since 2023, the Red Sox are 8-2 in Bello starts as a road underdog. They have a +3.0 run differential and a +77.3% return on investment (ROI) in those games. Finally, Boston is 4-1 in AL East road games with Bello on the mound over the last two seasons. The Red Sox have a +35.7% ROI and +2.0 run margin in those games. 

BET 1 unit (u) on Boston's +143 moneyline at Caesars. The Red Sox are playable down to +135. 

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Kansas City Royals (34-21) at Minnesota Twins (29-24), 7:40 p.m. ET

Caesars Odds 

• Moneyline (ML): Kansas City (-135) | MINNESOTA (+115)
• Run Line (RL): Royals -1.5 (+122) | Twins +1.5 (-145)
• Total — 7.5 — Over (+100) | Under (-120)

Starting Pitchers 

• Kansas City Royals LHP Cole Ragans (4-3 with a 3.34 ERA). Ragans diced up the Detroit Tigers in an 8-3 win Wednesday. He gave up 1 H over 6.0 IP with a 12/3 K/BB rate. Ragan lost to Minnesota 4-1 Opening Day in 6.0 IP with 2 ER on 5 H, 1 HR, 3 BB, and 9 K.
• Minnesota Twins RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (1-0 with a 2.57 ERA). This is Richardson's first start vs. the Royals. Richardson earned his fifth straight no-decision in his last time out, Wednesday, against the Washington Nationals. He threw 4.2-scoreless innings in Minnesota's 3-2 win.

Kansas City Royals LHP Cole Ragans pitches vs. the Minnesota Twins on Opening Day at Kauffman Stadium. (Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports)

Twins (+115) over Royals 

Despite Ragans being a top-five pitcher in the AL through the first two months of the season, KC opened as -109 moneyline favorites. Bettors see Ragans against a relative no-name starter at good odds and think they are getting a deal. That said, the Twins are more productive vs. lefties than the Royals against righties and Minnesota has an edge in relief pitching. 

Per FanGraphs, the Twins have a 112 wRC+ (eighth in MLB), .325 wOBA (ninth), .164 ISO (sixth), and 32.4% hard-hit rate (ninth) vs. left-handed pitching. Kansas City's lineup has a 98 wRC+ against right-handed pitching (17th) and .313 wOBA (10th). Plus, Minnesota's bullpen is eighth in xFIP and KC's is last. Ultimately, Richardson can get the game to his relievers and the Twins can steal it in the late innings. 

BET 1u on Minnesota's +115 moneyline at Caesars. Give me the Twins down to even money (+100). 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2024 betting record via X all season.