MLB Thursday's Best Bet Daily Double Has 1 Side And 1 Total
Honestly, I'm not going to watch the 2nd game on my betting card for Wednesday even with my three-TV living room setup. It includes the worst franchise in the MLB, the Oakland Athletics.
But, my eyeball-based MLB betting model shows some value in the total in Oakland's matchup against the Seattle Mariners. Also, I'm fading one of the Philadelphia Phillies' top-two starters when they visit the Atlanta Braves.
MLB Thursday Bet Slip
Philadelphia Phillies (23-26) at Atlanta Braves (30-19)
Betting odds for the Phillies at the Braves in the MLB Thursday, May 25th at DraftKings.
This is the regular season series opener between Phillies-Braves. Philadelphia RHP Aaron Nola (4-3, 4.31 ERA) gets the ball Thursday and Atlanta sends out rookie LHP Dylan Dodd (2-1, 6.46 ERA).
Even though Nola started in the 2022 World Series and Dodd is a rookie with an ugly ERA, this Phillies-Braves meeting is priced as a coin-flip after Atlanta opened up as a slight underdog.
The market is backing the Braves because the Phillies cannot hit lefties and Philly's bullpen is fatigued. Philadelphia is 5-10 vs. lefty starters and the Phillies' two best relievers by ERA pitched Wednesday.
Phillies starter Aaron Nola pitches during the 1st inning vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. (Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)
According to FanGraphs, Philly's lineup ranks 27th in wRC+ (83), 25th in wOBA (.296), 30th in BB/K rate (0.21), and 22nd in hard-hit rate (29.7%) against left-handed pitching.
Finally, the Phillies are 3-7 as a road 'dog with Nola on the mound since the beginning of last season with a -1.2 margin of victory and -32.9% return on investment (ROI).
MLB BET #1: Braves (-110), up to -120
Oakland Athletics (10-41) at Seattle Mariners (25-24)
Betting odds for the Athletics at the Mariners in the MLB Thursday from DraftKings.
This is a set-and-forget-it game. There's no reason to watch Athletics baseball even if you're betting on one of their games. Oakland has a chance to lose 110 games in 2023 and is the real-life version of the Major League storyline.
The Mariners have dominated the A's this season. But, three of their four meetings have gone Under 7.5 and one game only went Over 7.5 because it went into extra innings.
T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-lowest park factor in MLB, per Statcast. Furthermore, the Mariners struggle to hit lefties, Oakland's lineup cannot hit anyone, and A's starting LHP JP Sears (0-3, 4.99 ERA) pitches well against Seattle.
Athletics LHP JP Sears pitches in the 1st inning vs. the Astros at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. (Bob Levey/Getty Images)
For instance, the Mariners are 23rd in wRC+ (92) vs. left-handed pitching, 24th in wOBA (.296), and 25th in BB/K rate (0.29), per FanGraphs. Sears has allowed just 1 ER over 16 IP in three career starts vs. Seattle with a 17/6 K/BB rate.
Seattle gives starting RHP Logan Gilbert (2-2, 3.81 ERA) the ball Thursday. Since the beginning of last season, the Mariners are 4-9 Over/Under (O/U) as a home favorite when Gilbert starts.
Finally, there's been reverse line movement heading south of the total. According to VSIN, more than 60% of the action is on the Over but the Athletics-Mariners total opened at 8.