Two MLB Bets For A 'Lazy Sunday': Tigers-Angels, Twins-Mariners
Hopefully, this only pertains to me, but I have nothing to do Sunday, June 30 besides cleaning up around the apartment and watching my losing PGA TOUR bets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. With that in mind, I have a plan of "robbing Peter (MLB) to pay Paul (golf)." It's been an up-and-down MLB betting year for me. I won 10 straight games at the end of May. Unfortunately, I've lost five in a row entering Sunday and need to get back on track.
MLB Bet Slip for Sunday
The odds are the best available at the time of writing (1:30 p.m. ET).
Detroit Tigers (37-46) at Los Angeles Angels (36-46), 4:07 p.m. ET
Los Angeles not being a bigger favorite Sunday is suspicious. The Angels are 7-3 in the last 10 games, the Tigers have lost seven of their last 10, and LA's starter has a much better stat line. According to Pregame.com, more than 60% of the action is on the Halos as of 12:30 p.m. ET Sunday.
Angels LHP Tyler Anderson is 7-7 with a 2.63 ERA. If Los Angeles is a "trade deadline seller," contenders will be calling about Anderson. Tigers RHP Casey Mize is 1-6 with a 4.54 ERA. He hasn't lived up to expectations after being taken first in the 2018 MLB Draft by Detroit. But, Mize's stats are bad because he has faced a lot of good teams.
Detroit Tigers RHP Casey Mize pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays at Comerica Park in Michigan. (Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports)
Against teams with losing records, he has a 2.97 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Mize has a 5.85 ERA and 1.83 WHIP vs. winning teams. He lost two straight starts, but those were to the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies. Mize only gave up five earned runs, but struck out 13 batters and walked none in those two outings. LA has a much easier lineup than the Braves and Phillies.
The Tigers are 9-8 vs. left-hand starters and the Angels are 27-39 against right-hand starters. Finally, Detroit's bullpen has stronger pitching peripherals. Per FanGraphs, the Tigers relievers have a 14.0% K-BB rate and 3.89 Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP"), which is more predictive than ERA. In contrast, LA's bullpen has a 4.54 FIP and a 10.9% K-BB rate.
BET: Tigers -110 moneyline at FanDuel. Detroit is playable up to -120.
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Minnesota Twins (46-37) at Seattle Mariners (47-38), 4:10 p.m. ET
The relief pitching matchup here is a draw. That said, Minnesota has a better starter Sunday. Twins starting RHP Joe Ryan is 5-5 with a 3.31 ERA and has better underlying stats than Mariners starting RHP Luis Castillo, who is 6-9 with a 3.79 ERA.
Minnesota Twins RHP Joe Ryan delivers a pitch vs. the Kansas City Royals during the third inning at Target Field. (Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, Ryan performs better against good teams. His record is just 1-3 vs. teams with a winning record, but Ryan has a 3.28 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 9.0 K/BB rate. All of those are better than his numbers vs. losing teams. Conversely, Castillo is 1-7 against winning teams with a 4.97 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 7.6 K/BB.
The Twins out-rank the Mariners in wRC+ (106-96), wOBA (.317-.297), K/BB rate (0.38-0.32), and hard-hit rate (32.3-31.8%), according to FanGraphs. Lastly, the line is moving toward Minnesota even though roughly 70% of the money is on Seattle, per Pregame.com.
BET: Minnesota's -112 moneyline at FanDuel. Give me the Twins up to -125.
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