Invest In These 3 MLB Teams For 2024

Officially, Opening Day of the 2024 MLB season is Thursday, March 28th, so I'm starting to build my season-long portfolio. Hand up: I've procrastinated on my MLB futures betting and analysis. I'm blaming my newfound love for golf gambling on that. The MLB season is long and it takes six months for futures to grade. But, I get a weekly sweat on a 40-to-1 underdog, or higher, gambling on the PGA TOUR. 

That said, I'm more confident about projecting an MLB team over the long haul than handicapping baseball daily. Injuries, variance, motivation, umpire assignments, and platoon pitching make gambling on baseball games a tall task. After profiting for five straight seasons in the MLB, I've lost in back-to-back years. We'll see if I get back to winning in 2024. However, there are a few teams I'm backing to cash some longshot bets this season. 

Three MLB 2024 Season-Long Futures 

The odds are the best available at the time of writing. 

Detroit Tigers 

While the Tigers won’t be a legit World Series contender, I could see them winning their weaka** division and/or sneaking into the postseason. Detroit’s best path to the playoffs is winning the AL Central. However, crazier things have happened than the Tigers winning 90+ games next season. (See: The 2023 Baltimore Orioles).

That said, who in the AL Central is Detroit scared of? The Minnesota Twins won the 2023 AL Central with 87 wins last season. The other four AL Central teams had 78 or fewer wins in 2023. Everyone in that division has a below-average payroll, including the reigning champion Minnesota Twins. The Tigers have the 3rd-best farm system in MLB with six prospects ranked in the top 100, per ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. 

Detroit's Pitching 

Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal had the highest WAR and best Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP") among qualifying MLB starters in the 2nd half last year. Skubal’s K-BB% was the 2nd-best in baseball post-All-Star break as well. His 2024 AL Cy Young odds went from +1600 in early March to +900 as of Monday, March 25th. Skubal now has the 4th-best odds to win the award at DraftKings.

Detroit Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal throws in the third inning vs. the San Francisco Giants at Comerica Park. (David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports)

Detroit’s rotation behind Skubal is okay. I’m not giving up on the 2018 No. 1 overall pick, RHP Casey Mize either. Mize won a starting spot in Spring Training and was hitting 95+ mph on the gun. Furthermore, veteran Tigers starters Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda can eat up innings in the dog days of summer.

MLB is in the "platoon pitching" era and Detroit’s bullpen isn’t that bad. The Tigers’ relievers were eighth in FIP last season and they have four arms ranked inside FanGraphs’ top 100. Although, FanGraphs does project Detroit’s bullpen to be 23rd in WAR next season. Again, it’s the Tigers, so I wouldn’t be shocked if their relief pitching is bad in 2024. 

The Tigers' hitting 

FanGraphs projects the Tigers to be 22nd in hitting WAR this season. Yet, I’m much more optimistic about Detroit’s lineup. Don’t get me wrong, there’s a world where the Tigers suck at the dish in 2024. However, they have a lot of young talent as well.

Detroit RF Riley Greene is the fifth pick of the 2019 MLB Draft and 1B Spencer Torkelson went first the next year. In 2023, Greene had a 119 wRC+ and a team-leading 2.3 WAR. Torkelson hit a Tigers-best 31 home runs and 94 RBI. Detroit’s leader in wRC+ (121), and cleanup hitter, DH/OF Kerry Carpenter is only 26 years old too.

The Tigers signed 3B Gio Urshela this offseason, one of the best defensive infielders in the AL. Plus, Urshela had a 119 wRC+ or higher in three of four seasons from 2019-22 with the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins. Then there’s Detroit 2B Javier Baez, who’s never played up to his six-year, $140 million paycheck. 

Detroit Tigers RF Kerry Carpenter hits a single against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium. (Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)

But, he earned that raise by appearing in two MLB All-Star Games for the Chicago Cubs in 2018-19 and helping them win the World Series in 2016. I don’t have high hopes for Baez returning to the All-Star game but there’s a chance he has a bounce-back year.

Finally, the Tigers went 39-34 post-All-Star break last season and had the best record in division games (35-17) among AL Central teams. Between Detroit’s talent and the softness of the AL Central, the Tigers to WIN THE DIVISION (+350) and MAKE THE PLAYOFFS (+185) at DraftKings are bets I’m adding to my MLB 2024 portfolio.

Motown Bets 

• Half-unit (u) on the Tigers winning the AL Central (+350) at DraftKings
• 0.5u on Detroit making the AL playoffs (+185) at DraftKings

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Philadelphia Phillies 

I disagree with the market about the gap between the Phillies, and Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves. Philadelphia is +800 at FanDuel to win the NL Pennant while LA is +165 and Atlanta is +250. The Phillies won the NL Pennant in 2022 before losing to the Houston Astros in the World Series. Then Philly lost in seven games to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 2023 NL Championship Series. 

From an organizational standpoint, my lone concern with Philadelphia is the farm system. Per ESPN, the Phillies have the 23rd-ranked farm system in baseball. Los Angeles is eighth, but Atlanta is 28th. If the Dodgers played in the NL East, I'd need greater odds to take a shot at Philly here at this price. However, against the Braves, I’m okay with it.

FanGraphs projects Philadelphia’s starting rotation to be 2nd in WAR this season and the best bullpen WAR. Phillies starters Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are as good of a 1-2 punch as you could ask for. Wheeler has the 2nd-best odds to win the 2024 NL Cy Young Award at DraftKings and Nola is 11th. Both are "innings eaters" with great stuff still.

Philadelphia Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber celebrates with 1B Bryce Harper after hitting a solo home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks the 2023 NLCS at Chase Field. (Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)

For reasons unbeknownst, FanGraphs thinks Philly’s lineup is going to be below-average this season. It ranks the Phillies 19th in hitting WAR in its preseason projections. Philadelphia has one of baseball's best 1-3 hitters with All-Stars OF Kyle Schwarber, SS Trea Turner, and 1B Bryce Harper. Behind them are a couple of All-Stars in C J.T. Realmuto and RF Nick Castellanos. Of course, they need good injury luck, but the Phillies could have a top-five MLB lineup, rotation, and bullpen.

With this in mind, Philly won 90 games last season and I cannot find a reason why it would lose more games this year. The Braves are the only other good NL East team. The New York Mets and Miami Marlins got worse and the Washington Nationals should have a losing record again this season. As long as the Phillies come through with 90+ regular-season wins, I’ll be free-rolling Philadelphia to win the NL East and Pennant.

City of Brotherly Love Bets 

• 0.53u on OVER 89.5 wins (-105) at DraftKings
• 0.25u to win the NL East (+310) at DraftKings
• 0.25u to win the NL Pennant (+800) at FanDuel

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Chicago Cubs

Last season, the Cubbies went 83-79 to clear their 77.5 preseason win total, but they missed the NL playoffs by one game. Chicago’s 2024 regular-season win total is 83.5 at FanDuel, with the Over and Under both set at -110. So, the question is, "Did the Cubs get better this offseason?"

My first response is "They don’t need to get better to win 84 games." According to BaseWinner.com, the Cubs had a 90-72 Pythagorean record in 2023, based on run differential. They finished last season as one of the hottest teams in baseball. Chicago went 41-32 post-All-Star break with a +70 scoring margin.

It’s been a slow rebuild for the Cubs since they broke their World Series curse in 2016. But, they restocked their farm system. Chicago’s farm system ranked 24th in 2020, 22nd in 2021, 19th in 2022, and 11th last season, per ESPN. This season, Chicago has the 2nd-best farm system in MLB and five top-100 prospects.

Chicago Cubs 1B Cody Bellinger and 2B Christopher Morel celebrate after beating the Milwaukee Brewers at Wrigley Field. (Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports)

They are investing and the Cubs have baseball’s ninth-highest payroll, according to Spotrac. They re-signed their leading home run hitter, and 2019 NL MVP, 1B Cody Bellinger this offseason. Before last season, Chicago poached two-time All-Star, and 2021 World Series champion, SS Dansby Swanson from the Braves.

FanGraphs projects the Cubs to have the 11th- and 13th-highest WAR in starting and relief pitching, respectively. Cubs ace LHP Justin Steele is tied for the seventh-best odds to win the 2024 NL Cy Young at FanDuel. They have four relievers in FanGraphs’ top-100 power rankings.

Adding to that, the NL Central is another weak division. The St. Louis Cardinals are the only other NL Central team, besides the Cubs, projected to finish with a winning record by FanGraphs. Lastly, I’m going to apply a similar betting strategy with Chicago as I did with Philadelphia.

Windy City Bets 

• 0.55u on OVER 83.5 wins (-110) at FanDuel
• 0.45u to win the NL Central (+185) at FanDuel

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