1 Sucker Parlay, 1 Underdog Are The Best Bets For MLB Saturday

I closed out the work week by hitting my two best bets in the MLB. Both the Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays came through for me Friday. Seattle's 1-0 win over the Boston Red Sox was a "sweat" while I didn't even have to watch Tampa's 8-2 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays. 

READ: Invest In These 3 MLB Teams For 2024

After getting smacked around a little bit in Friday's Sweet 16 games, I'm making my MLB betting a bigger priority Saturday. Part of that is due to winning money in the first two days of the MLB season. The other is because there isn't a lot of value in the college basketball slate. 

MLB Betting Card For Saturday, March 30th

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing. 

Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals (+110), 4:10 p.m. ET

These teams were off Friday, but Minnesota won the season/series opener 4-1 Thursday. Minnesota RHP Joe Ryan takes the ball Saturday and Kansas City starts RHP Seth Lugo. Ryan was 11-10 with a 4.51 ERA and a 4.13 Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP") last season. Lugo was 8-7 for the San Diego Padres last year with a 3.57 ERA and a 3.83 FIP. 

Initially, I expected to be on the Twins here. They won the 2023 AL Central and are the favorites to repeat this season and Ryan is their second starter. Plus, Lugo has never made an All-Star team in his eight MLB seasons and has had an unremarkable career. San Diego converted Lugo into a starter in 2023 after he came out of the New York Mets' bullpen from 2018-22. 

Yet, once I dug into Lugo's numbers and saw that Minnesota's moneyline was a suspiciously low -130 at FanDuel, I'm rolling with the Royals. The Twins were 9-4 against the Royals with a +26 run differential last year. Ryan is 4-0 in five career starts vs. Kansas City with a 1.80 ERA and 36/9 K/BB rate. This makes me think Minnesota's -130 odds are a trap. 

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan in the delivery vs. the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. (Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, last season, 17 of Lugo's 23 starts were "quality starts". This is when a starter throws for at least six innings and allows three or fewer earned runs. His career FIP is 3.68 and that's the most predictive stat in pitching. It's concerning that FanGraphs projected Minnesota's bullpen to be third in FIP this season and KC's bullpen in the bottom 10. 

But, the Royals at least invested in relief pitching this offseason. They signed four new relievers in the winter. This includes two from the 2023 World Series champion Texas Rangers and one from the Atlanta Braves, who is projected to have the second-best FIP in MLB this season by FanGraphs. Regardless, baseball is random and maybe Kansas City's bullpen is better Saturday. 

Who knows? That's why they call it "gambling". 

Bet 1u on Kansas City's moneyline (+110) at FanDuel. I'd play the Royals through zero and up to -115. 

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‘Sucker’ Parlay: Cincinnati Reds ML + Seattle Mariners ML (+159) 

I'm combining Cincy's -175 ML at home vs. the Washington Nationals at 4:10 p.m. ET with Seattle's -155 ML at home vs. the Boston Red Sox at 9:40 p.m. ET for a two-team parlay at DraftKings with a +159 payout. Reds starting RHP Hunter Greene faces Nationals LHP Patrick Corbin and Mariners RHP Logan Gilbert goes against Red Sox RHP Kutter Crawford. 

Cincy's Case

FanGraphs projects the Reds to have a total WAR of 33.8 in 2024, which combines starting and relief pitching and hitting. The Nationals are expected to have the second-worst WAR this season at 20.7. More importantly, Corbin is one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB and has 50 losses over the last three years. 

Greene is one of the most powerful hurlers in baseball, regularly hitting triple figures on the gun. Granted, in two MLB seasons, Greene has a mediocre 4.62 ERA and 4.31 FIP. But, this is supposed to be a breakout year for Greene. He's making his 2024 debut against a Washington lineup that finished 27th in WAR last season.

With that in mind, I'm much higher on Cincinnati's lineup entering 2024. Reds SS, and young phenom, Elly De La Cruz is one of the best athletes in baseball. De La Cruz is one of the fastest players in MLB. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate at the plate were in the top 75% of major league hitters last season, per Statcast. 

Seattle's Case

The Mariners' starting rotation has top-five potential. I took Seattle's moneyline in a 1-0 win over Boston Friday because of my love for Mariners starting RHP George Kirby and it paid off. I have similar confidence in Gilbert. He is 32-18 in his three major league seasons with a 3.76 ERA and a 3.67 FIP. 

Seattle Mariners RHP Logan Gilbert pitches against the Los Angeles Angels at T-Mobile Park. (Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports)

It's a good sign for a pitcher when their FIP is lower than their ERA. Last season, Gilbert had career bests in WHIP (1.08) and strikeout-per-walk rate (5.3). Granted, Crawford's career FIP (4.08) is lower than his ERA (4.74) as well. But, Crawford is 9-15 in his three MLB seasons and his stuff isn't as good as Gilbert's. 

Finally, Seattle's lineup was more productive last season and is expected to have a better year in 2024. The Mariners were ninth in wRC+ (107) last season and the Red Sox were 16th (99), according to FanGraphs. Seattle is projected to have a 24.7 hitting WAR this year and a 22.3 hitting WAR for Boston. 

Bet 0.75u to win 1.19u on a Cincy + Seattle moneyline parlay at DraftKings.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my MLB 2024 betting record via X all season.