A Winning Trifecta Of MLB Bets For Saturday: 2 Short Road 'Dogs And 1 Total
Yesterday sucked for me in betting on MLB as I was starring down the barrel of a 0-3 performance Friday. Luckily, I came away with a win thanks to the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers cashing an Over bet. Even though I won't be around to watch, I'll be sweating my three bets Saturday on the MLB app.
However, it's all good, since I'm more likely to win my bets when I don't watch. As a Los Angeles resident, I cannot watch most Dodgers games due to blackout restrictions. That's the only reason that Over in the Brewers-Dodgers game cashed Friday. With that in mind, here are my three MLB bets that'll hopefully win if I don't jinx them by watching.
MLB Best Bets for July 6
- 1.06 units (u) on the Tampa Bay Rays -106 moneyline vs. Texas Rangers (FanDuel).
- 1.04u on the Milwaukee Brewers -104 moneyline vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (FanDuel).
- 1.02u on the OVER 7.5 (-102) in the Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres (DraftKings).
Tampa Bay Rays (44-44) at Texas Rangers (40-48), 4:05 p.m. ET
Much to my chagrin, the Rangers (-110) won the series opener 3-0 Friday. Obviously, Tampa Bay's bats went cold, but the RAYS (-106) are better against lefties. They are 14-7 vs. left-handed starters this season and ninth in wRC+, according to FanGraphs.
Also, Tampa's starter Saturday, RHP Taj Bradley (3-4, 3.42 ERA), has better stuff than Texas starting LHP Andrew Heaney (3-9 with a 4.04 ERA). Per Statcast, Bradley grades out higher in K%, whiff rate, and expected batting average (xBA). Lastly, Bradley has been dealing lately and the Rays are 4-1 in his last five starts.
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Milwaukee Brewers (52-37) at Los Angeles Dodgers (54-35), 7:15 p.m. ET
The Dodgers (-112) rallied back to beat the Brewers 8-5 in their series opener Friday. LA jumped out to a 2-0 lead. The BREWERS (-104) put up a five-run top of the 4th, then Los Angeles responded with two runs in the bottom of the inning. The Dodgers scored one and two runs in the 7th and 8th innings, respectively, to win.
Milwaukee gives its ace, RHP Freddy Peralta (6-4, 3.83 ERA) the ball for Game 2 of this series. According to FanGraphs, Peralta's Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP"), 3.54, is better than his ERA. FIP is more predictive because it removes factors outside the pitcher's control.
LA sends LHP James Paxton (7-2, 4.28 ERA) out there, whose ERA is misleading. Per Statcast, Paxton grades out in the bottom 30% of MLB starters in hard-hit rate, exit velocity (EV), xBA, and whiff rate. Whereas Peralta is in the 93rd percentile for whiff rate and 91st percentile for EV.
Finally, the Brewers feel like the sharp side here. According to Pregame.com, slightly more money is on them while more bets are on Los Angeles as of 1:30 p.m. ET Saturday. The line is moving toward Milwaukee, so I don't think it's public money on the Brew Crew.
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Arizona Diamondbacks (43-45) at San Diego Padres (49-43), 9:40 p.m. ET
Arizona games have gone Over 7.5 runs in 10 of Pfaadt's 17 starts this year. Seven of the eight Diamondbacks-Padres games this season have combined for 8+ runs. This includes four of their five meetings at Petco Park, one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in MLB.
San Diego Padres 3B Manny Machado hits a walk-off home run vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park. (Denis Poroy-USA TODAY Sports)
San Diego's lineup is second in both wOBA and wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching with the fifth-most runs scored, per FanGraphs. The Padres are 37-23 Over/Under (O/U) vs. right-handed starters and 20-10 O/U at home against righties. They've combined for double-digit runs in seven of their last 10 games. The D-Backs have combined for 11+ runs in four straight.
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