MLB Opening Day 2024 Best Bets Includes 1 Idiot Parlay, 1 Underdog
Last year was my second consecutive losing season betting on MLB after winning the previous five years. It was part bad luck, variance, and teams letting me down. (I never take the blame for losing bets. "I don't handicap poorly. Teams let me down" is my rationale). One of my flaws in 2023 was betting too many big favorites instead of parlaying them together.
That would get you banned from the Sharp Sports Betting community and laughed out of gambling Discord channels. Nevertheless, it's worked for me and I'm going back to it. At least for the start of this MLB 2024 season. Ultimately, there are "different ways to skin a cat" and trying to be too sharp for my own good cost me money. I'll be updating my season-long betting record daily as I do for the NBA (disaster) and did last season for the NFL (huge success).
MLB 2024 Opening Day Betting Card
The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
Idiot Parlay: Detroit Tigers ML + Cleveland Guardians ML (+168)
I mashed together Detroit's moneyline (-165) vs. the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland's (-150) vs. Oakland Athletics together for a +168 payout at Caesars Sportsbook. Since it's Opening Day, both teams have their aces on the mound. Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal (my pick for 2024 AL Cy Young) and Guardians RHP Shane Bieber (2020 AL Cy Young) get the ball.
Detroit's Case
Detroit has an overwhelming edge in the pitching matchup. Chicago’s bullpen is projected to have the worst bullpen in baseball this year. White Sox LHP Garrett Crochet is making his first career start Opening Day. Skubal has some of the best stuff in baseball and he's won three straight starts vs. Chicago.
In 97 career plate appearances vs. Chicago’s current lineup, Skubal has a 25.8% K-rate, 6.2% walk rate, .209 opponent batting average, and .231 wOBA, per Statcast. Last season, the White Sox were awful vs. left-handed pitching. Chicago’s lineup was 28th in wRC+ and 27th in both wOBA and hard-hit rate, per FanGraphs.
Detroit Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal delivers against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field. (Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, I have more faith in Detroit's young lineup than the market. FanGraphs projects the Tigers to have a bottom-10 lineup in baseball this year. But, 1B Spencer Torkelson, RF Riley Greene, 2B Colt Keith, and DH Kerry Carpenter have the potential to make Detroit's lineup an above-average unit.
Cleveland's Case
Allegedly, Bieber looks like his old self after dealing with injuries in two of the last three years. Take it or leave it, but Bieber had a 1.56 ERA in Spring Training with a 19/7 K/BB rate. Bieber lost all four games as a road favorite vs. teams with a losing record last season. Yet, before 2023, the Guardians were 20-6 as road favorites with Bieber on the bump with a +2.2 run differential per game.
Granted, we don’t know how bad the A’s will be this season, but they have the lowest projected win total in the MLB preseason. Plus, if the rumors are true, Bieber should carve up Oakland’s awful lineup. Either way, the Guardians are 11-2 vs. the Athletics since 2022. I'm not in love with Cleveland's lineup, but it puts the ball in play and steals bases.
Bet a three-fourths unit (u) to win 1.26u on a Detroit + Cleveland moneyline parlay at Caesars.
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Chicago Cubs (+100) over Texas Rangers
This is another instance of me going with my preseason reads. I got the Cubs winning the 2024 NL Central and LHP Justin Steele could be in the NL Cy Young race. Steele usually gets off to good starts. He has a 2.56 ERA in March and April for his career. In 2023, Steele went 16-5 with a 3.06 ERA and an NL-leading 0.7 home runs per nine-inning rate.
Chicago Cubs starter Justin Steele throws a pitch vs. the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. (Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports)
The Cubs were an elite team post-All-Star break last season, which explains their Opening Day odds vs. the reigning World Series champion Rangers. Chicago went 41-32 in the second half of 2023 with a +70 run differential. Finally, the Cubs are facing Rangers RHP Nathan Eovaldi, who is Texas's third starter, whenever Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer get healthy.
Bet 1u to win 1u on Chicago's +100 moneyline at FanDuel.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my MLB 2023-24 betting record via X all season.