Two 'Locks' For MLB Monday Include One Home Underdog, One Total

I have a lot of money to burn in MLB this week after hitting the longshot, Dornoch, and 6-10 Exacta in the 2024 Belmont Stakes this past weekend. On top of that, my only MLB bet last week hit when the New York Yankees beat the Los Angeles Dodgers as home underdogs Sunday. Not to mention, I went on a 10-game winning streak in MLB two weeks ago. With this in mind, I'm running hot and "seeing the board well". Let's continue that momentum Monday with two best bets on the diamond. 

MLB Betting Card: Monday, June 10 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Oakland Athletics (26-41) at San Diego Padres, 9:40 p.m. ET

DraftKings Odds 

• Moneyline: Oakland (+185) | San Diego (-225)
• Runline (RL): Athletics +1.5 (-125) | Padres -1.5 (+105)
• Total — 7 — Over (-120) | UNDER (+100)

Starting Pitchers 

• Oakland Athletics RHP Joey Estes (2-1 with a 4.67 ERA). Estes started in Oakland's 2-1 upset of the Seattle Mariners Wednesday. He pitched 6.1 scoreless innings, allowing just 1 H with 0 BB and 5 K.
• San Diego Padres RHP Dylan Cease (5-5 with a 3.51 ERA). San Diego lost 3-2 at the Los Angeles Angels in Cease's last start Wednesday. Cease gave up 3 ER on 4 H (2 HR) 1 BB and 6 K in 6.0 innings pitched (IP).

UNDER 7 (+100) in Athletics-Padres

San Diego's lineup could be without two sluggers Monday. Padres 3B Manny Machado has missed four straight games and 2B Xander Bogaerts has been out since May 20th. Over the last seven days, Oakland's lineup is last in wRC+ (37) and wOBA (.210), 28th in hard-hit rate (27.9%), and 29th in BB/K rate, according to FanGraphs. 

Furthermore, seven of the last nine A's games have combined for seven or fewer runs and Cease is carving up bad teams this season. Cease has a 2.20 ERA and a 6.2 K/BB rate vs. teams below-.500 compared to a 5.79 ERA and 2.6 K/BB rate against teams with a winning record. 

Padres RHP Dylan Cease pitches in the first inning vs. the New York Yankees at Petco Park in San Diego. (Chadd Cady-USA TODAY Sports)

Also, San Diego's four best relievers are well-rested and the Athletics have sneaky good relief pitching. Oakland's bullpen is tied for the fourth-best Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP") and ranks ninth in WAR, per FanGraphs. FIP is more predictive than ERA because it removes factors outside the pitcher's control. 

Finally, Petco Park in San Diego is one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in MLB. Per Statcast, Petco is 29th in "Park Factor" since 2022. Over that span, the Padres are 45.1% to the Under (87-106-6 Over/Under) despite having one of the most talented lineups in baseball. 

BET 1u on the UNDER 7 in Athletics-Padres (+100) at DraftKings. The UNDER 7 is playable down to -125. 

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Houston Astros (30-36) at San Francisco Giants (32-34), 9:45 p.m. ET

FanDuel Odds 

• ML: Houston (-116) | SAN FRANCISCO (-102) 
• RL: Astros -1.5 (+142) | Giants +1.5 (-172)
• Total — 8 — Over (-120) | Under (-102)

Starting Pitchers 

• Houston Astros RHP Spencer Arrighetti (3-5 with a 5.79 ERA).
• San Francisco Giants LHP Kyle Harrison (4-3 with a 4.18 ERA).

GIANTS (-102) over Astros

My regular-season MLB handicapping begins with comparing the bullpens. In this case, the Giants have better relief pitching. San Francisco's bullpen has a better FIP (4.15-3.82), WAR (0.8-0.3), and K-BB rate (15.7-13.3%), per FanGraphs. Houston's three best relievers pitched Sunday and its two setup men pitched two straight days. In contrast, the Giants' bullpen is well-rested. 

Giants 3B Matt Chapman hits a single vs. the Philadelphia Phillies at Oracle Park in San Francisco. (Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports)

Moreover, the Astros are 7-13 vs. left-handed starters this season and 3-8 on the road against lefties. The Giants on the other hand are 25-22 vs. right-handed starters and 13-8 at home against righties. Plus, Arrighetti is 1-4 in away games this year with a 7.54 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. 

Lastly, casual sports fans are betting the Astros as if they aren't six games below-.500 in early June. Per Pregame.com, roughly 70% of the action is on Houston's moneyline at 11:15 a.m. ET Monday. Yet, San Francisco's moneyline has gone from north of +100 to south. This type of "reverse line movement" is noteworthy because public money doesn't shift odds in regular-season MLB. 

BET 1.02u on San Francisco's -102 ML at FanDuel. Give me the Giants up to -125. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2024 betting record via X all season.