MLB Monday 'Locks' Includes Red Sox And Brewers As .500 Season-Long Record Within Reach
I'm procrastinating on Week 1 college football games by handicapping two games on MLB's Monday card. My hope is to build a surplus betting baseball that I can use to fire on college football action this weekend.
As of Monday, August 28th, my MLB 2023 betting balance is at -7.45 units (u) and record is 66-68. But, I went 6-2 last week and there's still time to break even or get a winning record this season. I'm looking at Astros-Red Sox and Brewers-Cubs in my ...
MLB Monday Moves
Houston Astros (74-58) at Boston Red Sox (63-48)
First of all, the starting pitching matchup favors Boston. The Astros give RHP Cristian Javier (9-2, 4.52 ERA) the ball Monday. The Red Sox counter with LHP Chris Sale (5-3, 4.68 ERA).
Sure, Javier has the higher winning percentage and lower ERA. However, Sale's 3.70 FIP ("fielding independent pitching"), which is much more predictive than ERA, suggests he's been unlucky this season.
Boston Red Sox LHP Chris Sale's advanced pitching metrics per MLB's Statcast.
This season, Sale has a 11.1 K/9 rate and that's his career average. Sale's K/9 rate is in italics and highlighted in gold at Baseball Reference, meaning it's an all-time record. Plus, Sale's advanced pitching numbers are still elite.
Javier's FIP on the other hand is slightly higher than his ERA because he has command issues. Over his last seven starts, Javier has a 33/20 K/BB rate. Plus, Javier's expected slugging percentage is in the 15th-percentile and his barrel rate is in the 19th-percentile, per Statcast.
Astros RHP Cristian Javier pitches against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. (G Fiume/Getty Images)
Also, I'd give Boston's bullpen a slight edge here. The Red Sox's relievers have a better FIP, HR/9 rate and hard-hit rate than Houston's bullpen, per FanGraphs. These teams split a 4-game series last week. But, the Red Sox outscored the Astros 31-22.
Finally, Boston's moneyline (ML) opened at -120 and is taking sharp action. Per Pregame.com, more than 70% of the bets are on Houston while roughly 70% of the money is on the Red Sox at the time of writing.
BET: Red Sox (-130) ML over the Astros at DraftKings (down to -140)
Milwaukee Brewers (73-57) at Chicago Cubs (69-61)
Brewers-Cubs betting odds in MLB Monday, August 28th from DraftKings.
This is a huge series for the NL Central. The Brewers are atop the division by 4.0 games with the Cubs giving chase. These two teams have six more meetings remaining in 2023 and both are red-hot coming into Monday.
The Brewers are on an 8-game winning streak and the Cubs have won seven of its past 10 games. But, I'm looking to fade Chicago with its 5th starter on the mound today, RHP Jameson Taillon (7-8, 5.60 ERA).
As home favorite with Taillon getting the start in 2023, the Cubs are 3-6 SU with a -40.8% return on investment (ROI). Milwaukee is 4-2 as road 'dogs and 3-1 vs. the NL Central this year when Monday's starting LHP Wade Miley (6-3, 3.18 ERA) is on the bump.
Brewers LHP Wade Miley grimaces after making a play on an infield vs. Dodgers at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. (Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
Taillon and Miley both have 76 plate appearances (PA) vs. active hitters on their respective opponent's rosters Monday. Miley has a better K-rate, exit velocity, launch angle, and expected slash line in those PA, according to MLB's Statcast.
Furthermore, Taillon has been awful at home in 2023. His ERA, WHIP, opponent's batting average (.319-.213), and opponent's slugging percentage (.892-.637) is far worse at home than on the road.
Lastly, the Brew Crew's bats have been hotter recently. Over the past two weeks, Milwaukee's lineup has a better WAR (1.9-1.2), wRC+ (102-92), wOBA (.324-.307), and BB/K rate (0.68-0.41), according to FanGraphs.