MLB Monday Bet Slip: 1 Slight Favorite, 1 'Sucker' Parlay
Let's start out this MLB betting week with a bang. Instead of betting three games outright, I've decided to parlay the two NL Central favorites together and back an NL East squad that had low expectations entering 2023.
My goofy MLB parlays went 2-1 last week and my 2023 record sits at 18-14 with a +8.5% return on investment (ROI). Not too shabby but I could lose it all back by the end of Tuesday.
Below, I'll give my analysis for the Giants-Marlins, Diamondbacks-Cardinals, and Brewers-Mariners showdowns on Monday.
San Francisco Giants (5-9) at Miami Marlins (8-8), 6:40 p.m. ET
The Giants (+105) hand the reigns to starting RHP Logan Webb (0-3, 4.76 ERA) in their series opener vs. the Marins (-125) who counter with LHP Jesus Luzardo (2-0, 1.93 ERA).
San Francisco is 3-7 over the last 10 games and is on a 3-game slide entering Monday. Miami had its 4-game winning streak snapped Sunday and are 6-4 over the last 10 games.
While Webb is the bigger name with higher expectations, Luzardo is younger with better form and more impressive pitching peripherals.
Per Statcast, Luzardo grades in the 80th-percentile or higher in MLB for expected batting average (xBA), expected slugging percentage (xSLG), expected ERA over wOBA, whiff rate and chase rate.
Marlins LHP Jesus Luzardo pitches against the New York Mets at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. (Jasen Vinlove/Miami Marlins/Getty Images)
Furthermore, San Francisco's lineup cannot hit lefties. The Giants rank last in wRC+, 29th in both wOBA and ISO and 28th in both BB/K rate and hard-hit rate, according to FanGraphs.
Relief pitching is the 1st thing I factor into MLB regular-season gambling. Well, San Francisco's bullpen has a negative WAR (-0.3) and a worse ERA, FIP ("fielding independent pitching"), and hard-hit rate than Miami's.
DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting via VSIN that more bets are on the Giants while more cash is on the Marlins. Typically, it's wise to follow the money when it's counter to the public since sharps bet larger units than you or I.
MLB Bet #1: Marlins (-125) moneyline (ML) at DraftKings
The Miami Marlins' ML odds vs. the San Francisco Giants as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Monday, April 17th from DraftKings.
MLB Sucker Parlay
Arizona Diamondbacks (9-7) at St. Louis Cardinals (7-9), 7:45 p.m. ET
All of the MLB handicappers I respect were high on the D-Backs coming into 2023 and I pegged the Cardinals to finish behind the Brewers in the NL Central.
Part of the reason I was luke-warm on St. Louis during spring training was because I've never been a fan of Monday's starter. Cardinals RHP Jack Flaherty (1-1, 1.76 ERA) is thought of as a "top-of-the-order" starter but hasn't pitched like one in years.
That said, Flaherty's advanced pitching numbers are solid and I'm less sold on D-Backs starting RHP Merrill Kelly (0-2, 2.93 ERA) than Flaherty.
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly exits the game in the 4th inning vs. the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. (Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
According to Statcast, Flaherty grades in the 85th-percentile or better in barrel rate, exit velocity (EV), hard-hit rate, xBA, and xSLG. Whereas Kelly is in the 33rd-percentile or worse in EV, hard-hit rate, xBA, xSLG, BB%, and chase rate.
Plus St. Louis's bullpen has looked a lot better than Arizona's to start the year. The Cardinals' relievers are 3rd in FIP (D-Backs are 29th), 7th in WAR (D-Backs are 28th), and 10th in HR/9 rate (D-Backs are last).
Lastly, St. Louis's lineup out-ranks Arizona's vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (100-83), wOBA (.331-.302), BB/K rate (0.47-0.25), and hard-hit rate (37.6-28.6%), according to FanGraphs.
Milwaukee Brewers (11-5) at Seattle Mariners (8-8), 9:40 p.m. ET
Brewers starting RHP, and 2021 NL Cy Young, Corbin Burnes (1-1, 5.19 ERA) threw an 8-inning scoreless gem with an 8/0 K/BB rate and only 3 H allowed in 7-1 win at the D-Backs in his last outing.
For whatever reason, Burnes is more effective away from home. Since the start of 2021, Milwaukee is 11-4 in Burnes' road starts with a +2.5 margin of victory and a +30.7% return on investment (ROI).
Seattle RHP Chris Flexen (0-2, 8.74 ERA) got pummeled Tuesday in a 14-9 loss at the Cubs. Flexen got raked for 8 ER on 10 H, 2 BB, 2 HR and just 1 K over just 2 1/3 IP. Since July 2021, Flexen is 2-6 as a home underdog with a -33.8% ROI.
Brewers 1B Rowdy Tellez has the cheesehead put on him after a solo home run vs. the San Diego Padres at Petco Park in San Diego. (Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
Because Flexen "pitches to contact," I'm going to be fading him a lot this year due to the new hitter-friendly rule changes. Per Statcast, Flexen is in the bottom-quarter or worse for MLB starters in xBA, xSLG, BB% and K%.
Milwaukee's lineup out-ranks Seattle's vs. right-handed pitching in hard-hit rate (33.0-31.8%), wRC+ (115-100), wOBA (.351-.311), ISO (.161-.143), and BB/K rate (0.50-0.38), per FanGraphs.
Since these bullpens cancel each other out, the Brew Crew hits righties better and Burnes is by far the better starter, I'm willing to use Milwaukee's ML in my 2-team "sucker" parlay considering the juicy odds.
MLB Bet #2: Cardinals and Brewers MLs (+174) at DraftKings
Odds for a 2-team MLB parlay Monday with the Milwaukee Brewers' and St. Louis Cardinals' MLs from DraftKings.