MLB Monday Best Bets Include Cubs, Plus Over In Mets-Astros
Betting on the MLB regular season is a grind. Just like actual baseball players, gambling on the MLB is streaky. Every time you think you have it figured out, baseball will humble you.
That said, you cannot get too high during the win streaks or too low during the losing skids. Currently, I'm struggling to put together consecutive winning days. But, I've done the homework and I'm confident I can start the week off right with these ...
MLB Monday Looks
Chicago Cubs (33-38) at Pittsburgh Pirates (34-36)
Betting odds for the Cubs vs. Pirates in MLB Monday from DraftKings.
The Cubs begin a three-game series with the NL Central co-tenant Pirates Monday. Chicago turns to LHP Drew Smyly (6-4, 3.59 ERA) while Pittsburgh goes with RHP Osvaldo Bido (0-0, 2.25 ERA).
Over the last three seasons, the Cubs are 9-1 straight up (SU) in Smyly's road starts with a +57.4% return on investment (ROI). Also, there has been sharp line movement headed toward Chicago in the betting market.
The public is nearly split on the Cubs-Pirates. But, more than 80% of the money is on Chicago's moneyline (ML), per Pregame.com. Pittsburgh's ML has climbed from +105 to +110 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cubs lefty Drew Smyly pitches in the 1st inning vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field in Chicago. (Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
Also, the Pirates got off to a hot start but have fallen off recently. Pittsburgh is 2-8 SU over the last 10 games. This includes a six-game losing skid and a three-game sweep by the Cubs Tuesday-Thursday.
Chicago's lineup has been raking lately and Pittsburgh's lineup has been struggling. Over the last seven days, the Cubs are 6th in wRC+ (129) and the Pirates are 28th (69), per FanGraphs.
Finally, Pittsburgh is in its first home game following a six-game road stand. Typically, in MLB or the NBA, teams struggle in their first game back from a long road trip.
BET 1.3u on the Cubs (-130) ML at DraftKings
New York Mets (33-38) at Houston Astros (39-33)
Betting odds for the Mets vs. Astros in MLB Monday from DraftKings.
The Mets send out RHP Max Scherzer (5-2, 4.45 ERA) for their three-game series opener in Houston. The Astros give RHP Hunter Brown (6-3, 3.35 ERA) the nod Monday.
Scherzer is having a down-year by his standards and Brown's contact numbers are alarming. According to Statcast, Brown grades in the 25th percentile for exit velocity and 19th percentile of hard-hit rate.
Plus, the Mets need a quality start from Scherzer because their bullpen is trash. NYM's relief pitching ranks bottom-five for FIP ("fielding independent pitching"), WAR, and HR/9 rate, per FanGraphs.
Astros 3B Alex Bregman hits against the Guardians at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. (Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
Furthermore, Houston's weather forecast for Monday is predicting hitter-friendly conditions. Temperatures are projected to be in the low 90s with a double-digit mph breeze at the batters' backs.
This season, the Astros are 19-15-1 Over/Under (O/U) as home favorites. While the Mets are 9-5 O/U as road underdogs and 7-4 O/U in Scherzer starts thus far in 2023.