Two MLB Picks For A Memorial Day Baseball Betting Sweat
Memorial Day is about remembering the troops who sacrificed everything to make America the country it is today. However, besides honoring America's undefeated war record, the other Memorial Day activities include BBQing, playing cornhole, and watching MLB. There is an 11-game card, which is stupid because all 30 MLB teams should be playing. With that in mind, I've settled on two MLB bets for Monday.
MLB Betting Card: Memorial Day, May 27th
The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
St. Louis Cardinals (25-26) at Cincinnati Reds (23-30)
DraftKings Odds
- Moneyline (ML): St. Louis (+130) | Cincinnati (-155)
- Run Line (RL): Cardinals +1.5 (-155) | Reds -1.5 (+130)
- Total — 9.5 — Over (-102) | Under (-118)
Starting Pitchers
- St. Louis RHP Lance Lynn: 2-2 with a 3.68 ERA. Lynn beat the Baltimore Orioles 3-1 Tuesday in his last outing. He went 6.0 innings pitched (IP) with 0 ER (1 run scored) on 5 H, 0 BB, and 5 K.
- Cincinnati LHP Nick Lodolo: 3-2 with a 3.34 ERA. Lodolo lost at the San Francisco Giants 5-1 May 11th. He gave up 4 ER on 1 BB, 1 HR, and 1 BB with 6 K over 6.0 IP.
Cincinnati Reds LHP Nick Lodolo pitches during the first inning vs. the White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago. (Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports)
Reds -155 over Cardinals
Lodolo returns Memorial Day after a 15-day stint in the IL with a groin strain. The 2019 first-round pick has elite stuff and is having his best season in the big leagues since his 2022 debut. Per Statcast, Lodolo ranks in the 74% or higher among MLB starters in xERA, xBA, chase rate, whiff rate, K%, and BB%.
Moreover, Cincy is 5-1 with a +3.0 scoring margin and +40.9% return on investment (ROI) in Lodolo's home starts as a -135 favorite or greater since 2022, including both this year. Finally, St. Louis is 28th in wRC+, wOBA, and ISO against left-handed pitching, according to FanGraphs.
BET 1.55 units (u) on the Cincinnati Reds (-155) moneyline on DraftKings.
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Miami Marlins (19-35) at San Diego Padres (28-28)
DraftKings Odds
- ML: Miami (+154) | San Diego (-185)
- RL: Marlins +1.5 (-135) | Padres -1.5 (+114)
- Total — 7.5 — Over (-102) | Under (-118)
Starting Pitchers
- Miami LHP Trevor Rogers: 1-6 with a 6.11 ERA. Rogers earned a no-decision in Miami's 7-5 home loss to the Milwaukee Brewers Tuesday with 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, and 4 K.
- San Diego RHP Michael King: 4-4 with a 4.38 ERA. King beat the Reds 7-3 Wednesday in 6.2 IP with 3 ER on 4 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, and 6K.
San Diego Padres RHP Michael King fires one in against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park in Ohio. (Cara Owsley-USA TODAY Sports)
UNDER 7.5 (-118) in Marlins-Padres
According to Statcast, Petco has the third-lowest "Park Factor" of any big-league ballpark over the last three seasons and counting. Also, the Padres rank in the bottom 10 of wRC+, wOBA, and ISO vs. lefties with the lowest hard-hit rate (24.6%), per FanGraphs. They are 5-10 Over/Under at home this season against left-handed starters.
The Marlins have one of the worst lineups in baseball. Miami is a bottom-three lineup in WAR, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ so far this season, according to FanGraphs. The Marlins have scored three or fewer runs in seven of their last 10 games. Lastly, King's whiff rate, K%, hard-hit rate, and exit velocity rank in the 70th percentile or higher among MLB starters, per Statcast.
BET 1.18u on the UNDER 7.5 in Marlins-Padres (-118) at DraftKings.
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