MLB Home Derby 2024 Best Bets From An Analyst Who Predicted Both Finalists Last Year
Nothing says "dog days of summer" like the MLB Home Run Derby and the Midsummer Classic. Tuesday's All-Star Game at Globe Life Field is the entrée. Whereas Monday's home run derby is the appetizer. Yet, I typically fill up on the appetizer and don't even eat the entrée. For whatever reason, the MLB All-Star Game doesn't do it for me and I prefer the home run derby.
Both of my picks in the 2023 MLB Home Run Derby, Toronto Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+370) and Tampa Bay Rays OF Randy Arozarena (+1000), made the finals with Guerrero winning 25-23. His father won in 2007, meaning he and Vladimir Sr. are the only father-son duo to win the home run derby. Unfortunately, Guerrero is not defending his title.
This year's home run derby has a new format. It's still an eight-man, three-round contest with the first two rounds being three minutes each and the final being two minutes. Each batter still gets one 45-second timeout in all three rounds. The semifinals and finals tiebreakers are 60-second swing-offs.
However, MLB eliminated the first-round knockout system and added a per-round pitch limit. "Knockout style" begins in the second round after all eight hits in the first round. The number of home runs hit decides the top four seeds in the semifinals, with a tiebreaker being the longest home run.
Batters get three minutes or 40 swings, whichever comes first, in the first round and semifinals. The finals are 27 swings or two minutes. Bonus periods are no longer timed. In 2024, batters get three swings in automatic bonus rounds and can acquire a fourth out by hitting a 425+ home run.
Alright, enough looking at pitches, so to speak. It's time to take some swings and make bets for the 2024 MLB Home Run Derby.
MLB Home Run Derby 2024 Best Bets
The odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11 p.m. ET Sunday, July 14.
Odds
- New York Mets 1B Pete Alonso (+340)
- Atlanta Braves DH Marcell Ozuna (+400)
- Kansas City Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr. (+475)
- Texas Rangers OF Adolis Garcia (+500)
- Baltimore Orioles SS Gunnar Henderson (+500)
- Los Angeles Dodgers OF Teoscar Hernandez (+950)
- Cleveland Guardians 3B Jose Ramirez (+1300)
- Philadelphia Phillies 3B Alec Bohm (+1600)
Atlanta Braves DH Marcell Ozuna (+400)
My biggest concern about Ozuna is his age (33). According to ESPN MLB senior writer David Schoenfield, "only three hitters older than Ozuna have won" the home run derby. That said, the three-time All-Star leads the NL in RBI (77) and has the second-most home runs in the league (27).
Also, Ozuna has the third-best in the majors and the fifth-best hard-hit rate, per Statcast. He grades out in the 95th percentile or higher among MLB hitters in exit velocity and expected slugging percentage. Over the last 30 days, Ozuna has the highest barrel rate of anyone in this year's home run derby, according to FanGraphs.
Baltimore Orioles SS Gunnar Henderson (+500)
The 23-year-old has a below-average "Launch Angle Sweet Spot" and whiff rates, per Statcast. Nonetheless, that's against MLB pitching trying to get him out, which he won't in the home run derby. "Bat speed" is the most predictive analytic for this contest and Henderson is in the 96th percentile of that metric this year.
Baltimore Orioles SS Gunnar Henderson appears in his first-ever MLB Home Run Derby Monday. (Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports)
Plus, Henderson ranks eighth in "adjusted exit velocity", fourth in hard-hit rate, and 20th in barrel rate. Over the last 30 days, the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year has the highest exit velocity and hard-hit rate in this field and the second-best barrel rate, according to FanGraphs. Lastly, Henderson's 27 home runs lead the 2024 MLB Home Run Derby field.
Most Home Runs by any Player in Round 1: UNDER 26.5 (-110)
In 2015, MLB replaced 10 swings with a three-minute time limit in the first round of the home run derby. Again, this year, it's either 40 swings for the first round or a three-minute time limit. With that in mind, I'm expecting home runs to decrease in 2024. From 2015-23, only 10 of the 32 first-round at-bats had 27+ home runs hit (2020 was canceled due to COVID).
Toronto Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. during the semifinals of the 2023 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. (Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, only three of the hitters in this year's field have more than 20 home runs. We won't see Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Shohei Ohtani, the reigning home run derby winner, and several other past winners with 20+ home runs, including Judge (2017), Yankees OF Juan Soto (2022), Philadelphia Phillies DH Bryce Harper (2018).
Round 1 H2H — Most Home Runs: Teoscar Hernandez (+120) over Adolis Garcia
According to Statcast, Hernandez has a higher barrel rate and hard-hit rate, and a faster exit velocity. Garcia isn't playing in the All-Star game while Hernandez is making his second All-Star game appearance. The only reason he's in the home run derby is because he plays at Globe Life Field for the Rangers. Ultimately, based on their current form, Hernandez has value in this matchup at a plus-money payout.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2024 betting record via X all season.