Firing Two Must-Win MLB Bets Friday On Diamondbacks-Phillies, Red Sox-Reds

A 0-3 betting the MLB Father's Day led me to "take my ball and go home", essentially. My MLB bankroll went from flush (up four-plus units) to barely ahead after taking it on the chin Sunday. Well, I'm back to recoup those losses, mostly because of sports betting boredom rather than wanting to bet baseball. 

Between platoon pitching and natural variance, betting MLB is infuriating. That said, football season is months away, the NBA is over, soccer is lame, the WNBA sucks, and I need to pay for my eventual losses at this week's Travelers Championship on the PGA TOUR. With that in mind, here are two bets you can fade or follow. 

MLB Bet Slip: Friday, June 21st 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Arizona Diamondbacks (37-38) at Philadelphia Phillies (49-25), 9:40 p.m. ET

The Phillies have cooled off lately, winning four of their last 10 games but still sit atop the NL East. The D-Backs are surging after a slow start with a 7-3 record in their last 10. However, they are still 9.0 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. 

DraftKings Odds 

• Moneyline (ML): Arizona (+114) | Philadelphia (-135)
• Runline (RL): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-170) | PHILLIES -1.5 (+142)
• Total — 9.5 — Over (-118) | Under (-102)

Starters

• Arizona Diamondbacks LHP Jordan Montgomery: 5-4 with a 6.00 ERA.
• Philadelphia Phillies RHP Taijuan Walker: 3-2 with a 5.33 ERA.

PHILLIES -1.5 (+142) over Diamondbacks

Philadelphia had Thursday off. The Phillies are 7-0 overall and 6-1 RL with a +3.7 per-game run differential this season when playing after a rest day. Neither starter is a "top of the rotation" arm but Philly has the much better relief pitching. Philadelphia's bullpen is second in Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP") and Arizona's is 25th, per FanGraphs. 

Philadelphia Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber daps up 1B Bryce Harper after a three-run home run vs. the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. (Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports)

Also, the Phillies rank inside the top 10 for wRC+, wOBA, ISO, BB/K rate, and hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching, according to FanGraphs. Despite being southpaws, Philadelphia sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper mash lefties. Schwarber has an 181 wRC+ and Harper is 149. For context, the Dodgers lead MLB with 133 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching. 

BET 1u on Philadelphia's -1.5 (+142) RL at DraftKings. 

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Boston Red Sox (40-35) at Cincinnati Reds (35-39), 7:10 p.m. ET

This is the interleague three-game series opener. Cincy beat Boston in two of three meetings last season. 

DraftKings Odds 

• ML: BOSTON (-112) | Cincinnati (-108)
• RL: Red Sox -1.5 (+142) | Reds +1.5 (-170)
• Total — 9 — Over (-120) | Under (+100)

Starters

• Boston Red Sox RHP Kutter Crawford: 3-6 with a 3.57 ERA.
• Cincinnati Reds LHP Andrew Abbott: 5-6 with a 3.42 ERA.

Red Sox (-112) over Reds 

This price for Boston is too good to pass up. The Red Sox have won eight of their last 10 games, including two of three vs. the AL East-leading New York Yankees and first-place Phillies and a three-game sweep over the Toronto Blue Jays. 

Boston Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers hits a double against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre in Canada. (John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports)

I power rate Boston's starting rotation, bullpen, and lineup ahead of Cincy, giving the Red Sox a three-phase edge. Furthermore, the AL is much better than the NL. On top of that, the AL East is the best division in baseball and the NL Central is the worst. The Red Sox are 14-11 in interleague games and the Reds are 8-9. 

BET 1.12u on Boston's -112 ML at DraftKings. The Red Sox are playable up to -135. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2024 betting record via X all season.