MLB Betting Trifecta Friday Includes Mets, Padres, Giants
I was lucky to split my Thursday MLB bets 1-1 when the Miami Marlins covered a -1.5 run line at home vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 5-run bottom-of-the-8th rally. My New York Yankees got boat-raced by the Seattle Mariners though 10-2.
Because Miami's run line (RL) had a plus-money payout and NYY's moneyline was just -105, I eked out a profit Thursday. As of Friday morning, June 23 my MLB record sits at 48-49 and my balance is -4.65 units (u).
Let's finish off the work week on a winning note with some ...
MLB Friday Fun
New York Mets (34-40) at Philadelphia Phillies (38-36)
Betting odds for the Mets vs. Phillies in MLB Friday, June 23 from DraftKings.
Friday is hopefully the start of a 3-game set between the Mets and Phillies. I say "hopefully" because there's roughly a 70% chance of a rainout in Philly Friday. In fact, rain is on the forecast all weekend in Philadelphia.
However, the Mets have the edge in the starting pitching matchup and have been hotter at the plate lately. They send out 1st-year Japanese RHP Kodai Senga (6-4, 3.53 ERA) to face Phillies RHP, and former Met, Taijuan Walker (7-3, 4.31 ERA).
Senga carved up Philly's lineup in May. He pitched 7-scoreless inning, giving up just one hit with a 9/0 K/BB rate. Walker took an L 4-2, June 1 vs. NYM. He went 4 IP with 3 ER on 3 2 H, 1 HR, and 3 BB with 2 K.
Mets righty Kodai Senga pitches vs. the St. Louis Cardinals at Citi Field in Queens. (Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports)
The Phillies hit right-handed pitching much better than lefties but Senga has "reverse splits". Most of Senga's numbers improve when facing lefty hitters vs. righties including OPS (.741-.568) and HR (6-3) allowed.
His 3.69 FIP ("fielding independent pitching") vs. lefties is more than a run lower compared to righties (4.79 FIP). Two of Philadelphia's best batters are lefties: LF Kyle Schwarber and DH Bryce Harper.
Also, NYM's lineup ranks 7th or better in wRC+, wOBA, WAR, and hard-hit rate over the last seven days, per FanGraphs. Whereas Philly's hitters rank 25th or worse in all of those categories.
Finally, the Mets low-key own the Phillies. NYM swept Philadelphia earlier this season and the Mets are 17-4 straight up (SU) vs. the Phillies over their last 21 meetings.
MLB BET #1: 1u on Mets (+100) at DraftKings
Washington Nationals (28-46) at San Diego Padres (36-39)
Betting odds for the Nationals vs. Padres in MLB Friday, June 23 from DraftKings.
The market is hammering the Padres but at least sportsbooks are moving the odds appropriately. Per Pregame.com, more than 90% of the action is on San Diego's RL, which has increased from -120 on the opener to -135 currently.
Washington gives one of the worst starters in MLB the ball Tuesday, LHP Patrick Corbin (4-8, 4.89 ERA). San Diego counters with All-Star RHP Joe Musgrove (5-2, 4.22 ERA). There's a stark contrast between these two starters.
Corbin has given up the most hits in MLB thus far this year with an NL-most eight losses. Musgrove grades in the 92nd percentile or better in exit velocity (EV), hard-hit rate, chase rate, and fastball spin, according to Statcast.
Padres starter Joe Musgrove throws a pitch against during the 1st inning at Petco Park in San Diego. (Ray Acevedo-USA TODAY Sports)
The Padres are 4-2 RL in Musgrove's home starts since 2021 as a -250 favorite or greater. San Diego's bullpen has the 3rd-best ERA and 8th-best WAR in MLB. While Washington's bullpen is a bottom-five unit across most pitching stats.
On top of that, the Padres are a lot more productive at the dish against lefties. San Diego's lineup ranks in the top-10 for wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and BB/K rate vs. left-handed pitching, per FanGraphs.
Ultimately, the Padres have a 3-phase edge over the Nationals in their series opener Friday and for the whole weekend. San Diego has the better lineup, starter and relief pitching.
MLB BET #2: 1.35u on Padres -1.5 (-135) RL at DraftKings
Arizona Diamondbacks (46-30) at San Francisco Giants (42-33)
Betting odds for the Diamondbacks vs. Giants in MLB Friday, June 23 from DraftKings.
This is a weird travel spot for the Diamondbacks. They had a 3-game series at the Milwaukee Brewers Monday-Wednesday then traveled to nation's capital for a makeup game vs. the Washington Nationals Thursday.
The D'Backs travel all the way across the country to start a 3-game set with the surging Giants who had its 10-game winning streak snapped Thursday in a loss to the Padres. Eight of San Francisco's 10 wins over that span were by at least two runs.
Arizona gives RHP Zach Davies (1-3, 7.11 ERA) the nod for the series opener. Davies is the lowest power-rated starter in that rotation, per FanGraphs. San Francisco turns to ace RHP Logan Webb (6-6, 3.11 ERA), FanGraphs' 15th-best starter.
Giants RHP Logan Webb fires a pitch in vs. the Baltimore Orioles during the 1st inning at Oracle Park. (Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports)
You could point to Davies' .365 BABIP and make case he is running on the negative side of variance. But, per Statcast, Davies is in the 22nd percentile or worse in EV, expected batting average, K%, and chase rate. Perhaps his BABIP isn't "bad luck".
The Giants could build on a lead or cover -1.5 late like Miami did Thursday. Arizona's bullpen ranks 20th in both FIP and WAR while San Francisco's bullpen is 6th in FIP and 10th in WAR, according to FanGraphs.