MLB Betting Analyst On 10-Game Win Streak Gives Out Two Picks Saturday

The secret to my recent success betting on MLB is I've been following the games through the MLB app instead of watching them. Obviously, this is completely random, but the teams I back do better when I'm not watching. Plus, I don't use the "eyeball test" for handicapping baseball until post-All-Star break. Instead, I nerd out MLB data that's way over my head. 

That said, I have a couple of bets Saturday I'll monitor when I'm at the gym, running errands, and watching the RBC Canadian Open. Also, unless I say otherwise, I always bet the "starters with action". Meaning, that if the probable starting pitcher of the team I bet on is scratched before the first pitch, then my bet is void. 

MLB Betting Card: Saturday, June 1st 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Texas Rangers (27-30) at Miami Marlins (21-37), 4:10 p.m. ET

Miami trounced Texas Friday 8-2 in their 3-game series opener. The Rangers swept the Marlins 3-0 in their only set last season. 

FanDuel Odds 

• Moneyline (ML): Texas (-110) | MIAMI (-110)
• Runline (RL): Rangers -1.5 (+145) | Marlins +1.5 (-175)
• Total — 8 — Over (-108) | Under (-112)

Starting Pitchers 

• Texas Rangers RHP Michael Lorenzen (2-3 with a 3.35 ERA). Lorenzen has alternated between losses and no-decisions in his last six games. His most recent outing was a no-decision in Texas's 5-3 loss at the Minnesota Twins May 25th. Lorenzen went 6.0 innings pitched (IP) with 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, and 4 K.
• Miami Marlins LHP Ryan Weathers (3-4 with 3.16 ERA). Weathers beat the Arizona Diamondbacks 3-1 Sunday. He threw 6-shutout innings with 4 H, 1 BB, and 7 K.

MARLINS (-110) over Rangers

Casual sports fans not paying attention to MLB yet might be surprised to see the defending World Series champion Rangers at a cheap price against the last-place Marlins. But, Texas is two games below-.500 and missing four starters from last year's rotation. The Rangers didn't resign LHP Jordan Montgomery and former Cy Young-winning pitchers Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom are on the IL. 

Miami Marlins CF Jazz Chisholm Jr. celebrates as he rounds the bases after hitting a home run vs. the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. (David Frerker-USA TODAY Sports)

Miami is 19-19 against right-handed starters and 2-18 vs. lefties. The Marlins hit righties better than the Rangers hit lefties. Per FanGraphs, Texas's lineup ranks 23rd or worse in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and hard-hit rate. Furthermore, Texas's bullpen has just one lefty and is worse than Miami's in all the important pitching metrics, such as Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP"), WAR, and HR/9. 

Again, all this is lost on casual bettors. According to Pregame.com, over 70% of the money is on the Marlins and a slight majority of the bets are on the Rangers as of 11:45 a.m. ET Saturday. The cash column of the betting splits represents "professional money". I pay attention to betting splits when betting MLB regular-season games since the public doesn't move the odds. 

BET 1.1u on Miami's -110 ML at FanDuel. Give me the Marlins up to -130. 

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St. Louis Cardinals (27-28) at Philadelphia Phillies (40-18), 7:15 p.m. ET

Philadelphia won the series opener 4-2 Friday. The Phillies are 3-1 vs. the Cardinals this season and 8-2 since 2023. 

Caesars Odds 

• ML: ST. LOUIS (+140) | Philadelphia (-166)
• RL: Cardinals +1.5 (-162) | Phillies -1.5 (+136)
• Total — 7 — Over (-112) | Under (-108)

Starting Pitchers 

• St. Louis Cardinals RHP Sonny Gray (7-2 with a 2.60 ERA). Gray won his fifth game in his last six starts Sunday, and his third straight when the Cardinals beat the Cubs 4-3. He pitched 5-scoreless innings with 1 H, 2 BB, and 8 K.
• Philadelphia Phillies LHP Ranger Suarez (9-1 with a 1.75 ERA). Suarez had his nine-game winning streak snapped in a 5-2 loss at the Colorado Rockies Sunday. Suarez pitched 6.0 innings, allowing 4 ER on 3 H, 1 HR, 4 BB, and 9 K.

CARDINALS (+140) over Phillies

More than 85% of the action is on the first-place Phillies as of 12:15 p.m. ET Saturday, per Pregame.com. However, St. Louis has won seven of its last 10 games and Philly is 6-4 in the previous 10. The Cardinals have struggled against left-handed pitching this year. But, they have two All-Star righty sluggers batting third (1B Paul Goldschmidt) and fourth (3B Nolan Arenado) in their lineup. 

St. Louis Cardinals LHP Sonny Gray throws against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium in Anaheim. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, St. Louis has an edge in the pitching matchup. Both have good bullpens, but the Phillies used their three best relievers in the series opener: LHPs Matt Strahm and Jose Alverado and RHP Jeff Hoffman. Suarez is having a career year. Yet, so is Gray, who is a three-time All-Star, while Suarez has never made an All-Star team. Gray has a career-best 2.60 ERA and 1.00 WHIP and his 11.6 K/9 rate is tied with a career-best.

Finally, Gray has a lot of success against Philly’s lineup. According to Statcast, Gray has a 31.7% K-rate, .170 opponent batting average, and 85.9 mph exit velocity (EV) in 120 plate appearances vs. active Phillies. That’s a pretty good sample size. And, for context, the average MLB K-rate is 21.8%, .209 for batting average, and 88.4 mph EV. 

BET 1u on St. Louis's +140 ML at DraftKings. The Cardinals are playable down to +110. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2024 betting record via X all season.