One Underdog, One Coin-Flip Pick On The MLB Bet Slip For Wednesday

Sixteen MLB teams are back on the diamond Wednesday, and I'm heading out there too. Again, I didn't plan on betting MLB this early into the season, but the 2024 NBA Playoffs have been terrible and I have free time. More importantly, I've hit all four bets this week and I need to use my MLB winnings to pay for my PGA TOUR 2024 losses. With that in mind, let's see if I can keep this heater going with my two MLB looks for Wednesday. 

MLB Betting Card:  May 29

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Washington Nationals (24-29) at Atlanta Braves (31-21), 7:20 p.m. ET

DraftKings Odds 

• Moneyline (ML): WASHINGTON (+140) | Atlanta (-166)
• Run Line (RL): Nationals +1.5 (-155) | Braves -1.5 (+130)
• Total — 8.5 — Over (-120) | Under (+100)

Starting Pitchers 

• Washington Nationals LHP MacKenzie Gore (3-4 with a 3.04 ERA).
• Atlanta Braves RHP Spencer Schwellenbach: MLB debut.

Nationals (+140) over Braves

Rather than fading Schwellenbach for his MLB debut, I'm backing Gore, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft, and finding his groove in the big leagues. Per Statcast, Gore's exit velocity, whiff rate, and K% are better than three-fourths of major league starters. FanGraphs ranks Gore's Stuff+ seventh among MLB starters with at least 50 IP. 

Washington Nationals LHP MacKenzie Gore pitches vs. the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. (Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports)

Also, Washington isn't as bad as casual baseball fans think. The Braves are only 9-6 vs. the Nationals since last season and Atlanta's average ML in those games is -270.5. Sure, the Nationals finished last in the NL East in 2023, but their Pythagorean win record is 25-28 this year. 

The Nationals have four relievers with a sub-3.00 ERA and Washington's bullpen has a better Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP") than Atlanta's, which is more predictive than ERA. Obviously, the Braves have a better lineup. That said, their edge in hitting isn't big enough to justify laying -166 odds Wednesday. 

BET 1u on Washington's +140 moneyline at DraftKings. Give me the Nationals down to +130. 

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Houston Astros (24-31) at Seattle Mariners (30-26), 9:40 p.m. ET

Caesars Odds 

• ML: Houston (-110) | SEATTLE (-110)
• RL: Astros +1.5 (-225) | Mariners -1.5 (+185)
• Total — 7 — Over (-115) | Under (-105)

Starting Pitchers 

• Houston Astros RHP Justin Verlander (3-2 with a 3.60 ERA).
• Seattle Mariners RHP George Kirby (4-5 with a 4.33 ERA).

Mariners (-110) over Astros

According to Pregame.com, roughly 80% of the action is on the Astros as of 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday. I'm guessing it's because Verlander is a future Hall of Famer and Houston has been the best AL team over the past five seasons. However, the line hasn't budged off the opener, so that might be "sucker money" since the public doesn't move odds in regular-season MLB betting. 

Kirby's ERA is almost a full run higher than last year when he made the AL All-Star team. But, the 26-year-old is lights out at home. He is 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA and 1 HR allowed in five starts at home, compared to 0-4 with a 5.63 ERA and 8 HRs allowed on the road. 

Since Kirby's rookie season in 2022, the Mariners are 8-0 as home favorites of -130 or less when Kirby starts. Finally, Seattle's bullpen is 10th in WAR and sixth in FIP. Whereas Houston's bullpen is 24th in WAR and 23rd in FIP. 

BET 1.1u on Seattle's -110 moneyline at Caesars. The Mariners are playable up to -135. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2024 betting record via X all season.