Going Into Enemy Territory For One Of Two MLB Best Bets Thursday

If it weren't for my active six-game betting win streak in the MLB, I wouldn't be giving out bets. However, like in pick-up basketball, I am a firm believer that you have to "run it back" if you win. Plus, I'll be at the Yankees-Angels game Thursday, and it's a personal tradition to bet any game I attend. With this in mind, here are two games I like on the diamond Thursday.  

MLB Bet Slip for Thursday, May 30th 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Detroit Tigers (27-28) at Boston Red Sox (28-28), 7:10 p.m. ET

Caesars Odds 

• Moneyline (ML): DETROIT (+105) | Boston (-125)
• Run Line (RL): Tigers +1.5 (-210) | Red Sox -1.5 (+175)
• Total — 7 — Over (-125) | Under (+105)

Starting Pitchers 

• Detroit Tigers RHP Jack Flaherty (1-4 with a 3.84 ERA). Flaherty lost to the Toronto Blue Jays 9-1 in his last outing May 23rd. He went 6.1 innings pitched (IP), allowing 3 ER on 7 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, and 9 K.
• Boston Red Sox RHP Nick Pivetta (2-3 with a 4.20 ERA). Pivetta was chased early in Boston's 6-3 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers Saturday. He gave up 5 ER on 7 H, 3 BB, and 3 K in just 3.1 IP.

TIGERS (+105) over Red Sox 

Flaherty has a misleading win-loss record with great underlying stats. Per Statcast, Flaherty is in the 88% or higher among MLB starters in xERA, chase %, K%, and BB%. He has the best K-BB% among MLB starters with at least 50 IP and a 2.98 Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP"), according to FanGraphs. FIP is more predictive than ERA and further proves Flaherty’s 1-4 record is because of factors outside his control. 

Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty delivers against the St. Louis Cardinals in the first inning at Comerica Park in Michigan. (David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports)

Lastly, there is reverse line movement toward Detroit in the betting market and the Tigers have been hotter at the plate recently. Per Pregame.com, over 60% of the action is on the Red Sox's ML, but they are suspiciously getting cheaper. Over the last two weeks, Detroit's lineup out-ranks Boston's in wRC+, wOBA, and hard-hit rate, according to FanGraphs. 

BET 1 unit (u) on Detroit's +105 moneyline at Caesars. The Tigers are bet-able up to -120 favorites. 

_____________________________ 

New York Yankees (38-19) at Los Angeles Angels (21-34), 9:38 p.m. ET

DraftKings Odds 

• ML: NEW YORK (-170) | Los Angeles (+142)
• RL: Yankees -1.5 (-108) | Angels +1.5 (-112)
• Total — 8.5 — Over (-108) | Under (-112)

Starting Pitchers 

• New York Yankees LHP Carlos Rodon (6-2 with a 2.95 ERA). Rodon picked up his fourth consecutive win Friday by pitching six shutout innings in an 8-0 victory at the San Diego Padres.
• Los Angeles Angels LHP Patrick Sandoval (2-7 with a 5.60 ERA). Sandoval got drilled in a 10-4 loss to the Cleveland Guardians Friday. In 3.2 IP, Sandoval surrendered 8 ER on 6 H and 3 HR with 4 BB and 4 K.

YANKEES (-170) over Angels

This is a "homer pick." I'm a NY transplant living in Long Beach, California, who goes to see the Yankees when they come to Anaheim every season. Since I'll be at the game, I need to have some action on it and there's no way I'm betting the Angels. Especially with how well the Yankees are playing lately. The Yankees have won 14 of their last 20 games and sit atop the best division in MLB. 

New York Yankees DH Giancarlo Stanton celebrates All-Star Aaron Judge after hitting a 2-run home run vs. the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. (David Frerker-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, the Yankees have a three-phase edge over the Angels in starting and relief pitching and hitting. Rodon appeared in back-to-back All-Star games from 2021-22 before signing a huge deal with the Yankees last offseason. Los Angeles's bullpen ranks 26th in ERA, WAR, and FIP. New York's lineup is first or second in WAR, wRC+, and wOBA, per FanGraphs. 

Finally, the Yankees are 4-0 this year as road favorites when Rodon gets the start. New York has a +6.3 scoring margin and +86.4% return on investment in those games. 

BET 1.7u on New York's -170 moneyline at DraftKings. The Yankees are playable up to -200. 

_____________________________ 

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2024 betting record via X all season.