2 MLB Picks For Sunday Including Red Sox-Yankees Rubber Match On Sunday Night Baseball
I'm leaking units (u) in the MLB this weekend, and it's frustrating. Because of this, I'm getting a six-pack and Wingstop and watching the House of Dragons on Sunday. This way, even if my two bets lose, I'll still have a decent night.
Nonetheless, I'm going back to the only bets that have worked for me in the MLB lately (totals) and gambling on the one baseball game I care about: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.
MLB Betting Card: July 7
- 1.18u on the OVER 8 (-118) in Diamondbacks at Padres (DraftKings).
- 1.3u on the Yankees (-130) moneyline vs. Red Sox (DraftKings).
Arizona Diamondbacks (44-45) at San Diego Padres (49-44), 4:10 p.m. ET
My only winner Saturday was the OVER in San Diego's 7-5 extra-inning victory. Despite Petco Park being one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in MLB and the Padres have their ace on the mound, RHP Dylan Cease (7-7, 4.24 ERA), I'm going back to the well with the OVER 8 (-118) in this rubber match.
After Saturday, 9+ runs have been scored in 11 of the last 15 Padres games. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have combined for 9+ runs in 11 of their previous 14, including five straight. San Diego is 5-3 Over/Under in Cease starts at home this season with a +2.6 O/U margin.
San Diego Padres 3B Manny Machado gets a Gatorade bath after hitting a walk-off home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park. (Denis Poroy-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, these teams have been raking lately. FanGraphs says both lineups have been in the top 10 of wRC+ and wOBA over the last two weeks. Even without All-Star Fernando Tatis Jr. in the lineup, the top of the Padres' lineup is stacked: 1B Luis Arraez, OF Jurickson Profar, 2B Jake Cronenworth, and 3B Manny Machado.
The D-Backs' starter Sunday, RHP Ryne Nelson (5-6, 5.42 ERA), is 223rd in FanGraphs' power rankings of MLB pitchers. Finally, according to FanGraphs, Arizona's bullpen ranks 26th or worse in WAR, ERA, Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP"), home runs allowed per nine innings, and K-BB%.
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Boston Red Sox (48-40) at New York Yankees (55-36), 7:10 p.m. ET
Time was a Red Sox-Yankees primetime game would've been the biggest thing of my week. However, moving to Southern California and betting more sports have dulled my "sports fan" passion. I'm still rooting for NYY, which is a reason to fade this pick, but I try not to bet on them because of my bias.
That said, this Red Sox-Yankees rubber match is on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball, with no other sports happening, and I want action on the game. New York evened the series Saturday with a 14-4 whooping after Boston won 5-3 in the extra innings Friday.
With that in mind, I'm counting on Yankees rookie 1B Ben Rice's breakout performance Saturday energizing his teammates. Rice had three home runs and seven RBI Saturday. After falling behind 4-3 and Gerrit Cole getting chased early, New York had a seven-run fifth capped off by Rice's three-run homer.
Another reason to fade me here is the regression of Yankees starting RHP Luis Gil (9-4, 3.41 ERA). He has lost three consecutive games, allowing 16 earned runs in 9.2 innings over that span. Red Sox starting RHP Kutter Crawford (4-7, 3.47 ERA) beat NYY, 9-3, earlier this year. But, Gil beat Boston 8-1 last month, and I'm hoping he bounces back Sunday.
The final reason to fade me and the Yankees on Sunday is the sketchy line movement. Per Pregame.com, they opened as -155 favorites and more than three-fourths of the bets are New York, yet the line is moving toward Boston. That said, objectively speaking, the Yankees have the better roster, so I'll take the discount. Like a sucker, probably.
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