Two MLB Bets To Sweat Friday While Watching The Masters 2025
I'm pretty much going AWOL from work Friday after this article is published. It's the second round of The Masters 2025 and the penultimate day of the NBA regular season. Also, I'm probably jinxing myself by mentioning this, but my 2025 MLB season is off to a strong start.
I'm 6-3 with a +41.2% return on investment, and +3.88 units (u). As I said Opening Day, I'll keep gambling on regular-season baseball if I'm winning money. However, most of my MLB bets have been given out on X, so make sure you're following me over there.
MLB Betting Card: April 11
The odds are the best available at the time of writing.
- Tampa Bay Rays moneyline (-135), up to -150, vs. Atlanta Braves via DraftKings, risking 1.20u.
- Detroit Tigers moneyline (+100), up to -115, at Minnesota Twins via FanDuel, risking 1u.
Atlanta Braves (3-9) at Tampa Bay Rays (5-7)
The Braves played late Thursday and then had to travel to Tampa for their three-game set against the Rays. Not only was Atlanta's 4-2 win over the Philadelphia Phillies delayed by rain Thursday, but they played 11 innings. The Braves used five of their eight relievers vs. the Phillies, including closer Raisel Iglesias.
Tampa Bay got raked in an 11-1 home loss to the Los Angeles Angels Thursday. The only good thing about them getting crushed was the Rays didn't have to go deep into their bullpen or use their better relievers. However, Tampa has lost six of the last seven games.
Regardless, I prefer Tampa's starter Friday, RHP Taj Bradley (1-0 with a 4.91 ERA), more than Atlanta's starting RHP Bryce Elder (0-0 with a 6.75 ERA). They played in the same Braves-Rays three-game set in 2023. Elder allowed 7 ER over 3.1 innings with 2 HR, 0 K, and 4 BB. Whereas Bradley gave up 4 ER across 5.0 innings with 1 HR, 4 K, and 2 BB.
This is Elder's fourth MLB season with 282.1 innings pitched (IP) and Bradley's third with 253.2 IP. Elder has a 9.9% career K-BB rate and 4.34 expected Fielding Independent Pitching ("xFIP"), which is more predictive than ERA because it removes factors outside the pitcher's control. Bradley, on the other hand, has a career 19.1% K-BB rate and a 3.69 xFIP.
Finally, Tampa Bay's lineup has been a lot more productive so far this year. The Rays rank higher than the Braves in WAR (1.7-0.4), wRC+ (108-83), wOBA (.310-.290), and hard-hit rate (35.3%-31.9%), according to FanGraphs.
Prediction: Rays 8, Braves 4
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Detroit Tigers (7-5) at Minnesota Twins (4-9)
This is the first of a three-game set, and Minnesota won the 2024 season series 7-6. Detroit's bullpen is more well-rested after having an off-day Thursday. While the Twins lost on the road to the Kansas City Royals 2-3 Friday. Minnesota has lost five of its last seven contests. The Tigers have won seven of their last nine games and three consecutive series.
Detroit starting LHP Friday, Reese Olson, has impressive advanced analytics vs. Minnesota, which has struggled against lefties this year. Per Statcast, Olson has a 22.5% K-BB rate, 88.7 mph exit velocity (EV), and a .213/.270/.336 expected slash line in 51 plate appearances vs. his AL Central rival. For context, the MLB average for K-BB rate is 14.3%, and the average EV is 90.3 mph.
Furthermore, the Twins are 0-2 against lefty starters this year with one run scored. They rank 29th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching, 29th in wOBA, 30th in K%, and 24th in hard-hit rate, according to FanGraphs. Lastly, the Tigers are third in batting WAR, second in wRC+, and third in wOBA through the first two weeks of this season.
Prediction: Tigers 6, Twins 2
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2025 betting record via X all season.