Add These Two MLB Best Bets Into The Masters 2025 'Moving Day' Action

Despite completely whiffing on the pitcher's handedness for one of my bets, I went 2-0 in MLB Friday because the rest of my analysis was spot-on. So, since I'm playing with house money and sitting around all day watching The Masters 2025, I'm running it back in baseball Saturday. Maybe my good luck expires, or perhaps I'm finally due for a good year in MLB after a couple of bad ones. Regardless, fade or follow the looks below at your own peril. 

MLB Best Bets for Saturday 

The odds are the best available at the time of writing. 

• Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline (+110), up to -110, at Cincinnati Reds via Bet365, risking 1 unit (u).
• UNDER 8.5 (-115), up to 8.5 (-125), in Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres via DraftKings, risking 1.15u.

Pittsburgh Pirates (5-9) at Cincinnati Reds (6-8) 

Cincy won the series opener 5-3 Friday. Pittsburgh sends LHP Andrew Heaney (0-0, 1.50 ERA) to the bump Saturday, while Reds starting LHP Andrew Abbott makes his 2025 debut. Pittsburgh has a slight edge in the starting pitching duel because Cincinnati is 1-3 vs. lefty starters and ranks 29th in wRC+ and wOBA against left-handed, according to FanGraphs. 

More importantly, the Pirates have more hands on deck in their bullpen, using just two relief pitchers Friday. The Reds used three of their highest-power-rated relievers, per FanGraphs, including closer Emilio Pagán. Pittsburgh's bullpen has a lower Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP"), 4.53-4.03, which is more predictive than ERA because it removes factors out of the pitcher's control. 

Also, I might be "galaxy-braining" this too hard, but everyone is down on the Pirates, including their season ticket holders, yet the line is moving toward Pittsburgh. The market bet Cincy's futures heavily pre-season, so people like the Reds. However, the Pirates beat them 8-5 in their season series last year, and my fair price for Pittsburgh's moneyline Saturday is -120. 

Prediction: Pirates 6, Reds 3 

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Colorado Rockies (3-10) at San Diego Padres (11-3) 

Get the Rockies out of the launching pad known as "Coors Field", and they cannot hit. Colorado has the fewest runs scored in baseball and averages 1.6 runs per game on the road. The Padres shutout the Rockies 8-0 in their series opener Friday and Colorado has scored just three runs in its last four road games. 

Three additional factors point to this being a low-scoring affair. First, San Diego's bullpen leads MLB in ERA so far this year. Second, Petco Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball. Third, Rockies starting RHP Chase Dollander (1-0, 7.20 ERA) is the 14th-ranked prospect in the majors with nasty stuff. 

Since they smacked Colorado Friday, the Padres didn't use their four best relievers, and they had an off-day Thursday. San Diego righty closer Robert Suarez, who is FanGraphs' No. 1 ranked reliever, and setup man, RHP Jason Adam, who is third, are both available. Friday's starting pitching matchup wasn't much better, but the total was 7.5, so I see value in UNDER 8.5.

Prediction: Padres 5, Rockies 2

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2025 betting record via X all season.