Start The Week Off Right By Following These Two Best Bets In MLB Monday

I have a little extra money in my betting accounts after hitting Rory McIlroy to win the 2025 Masters. Instead of doing the smart thing and cashing out, I'm re-investing (responsibly) in the MLB market on Monday, especially since I'm running hot in baseball right now. 

That said, I plan to rob Peter (MLB) to pay Paul (RBC Heritage on the PGA TOUR) later this week. Let's hope it works. 

MLB Betting Card: April 14

The odds are the best available at the time of writing. 

• St. Louis Cardinals moneyline (-110), up to -125 vs. Houston Astros via FanDuel, risking 1.1 units (u).
• San Diego Padres -1.5 runline (+154), down to +130, vs. Chicago Cubs via BetMGM, risking 1u.

Houston Astros (7-8) at St. Louis Cardinals (7-8)

St. Louis has been steamed up from a slight +107 underdogs pre-flop to a small favorite at the time of writing. Both teams won the rubber match of their weekend series on Sunday. The Cardinals shut out the Philadelphia Phillies, 7-0, and the Astros beat the Los Angeles Angels, 7-3.  

Houston ace LHP Framber Valdez (1-1, 2.50 ERA) takes the mound, while St. Louis will give RHP Sonny Gray (2-0, 4.50 ERA) the start. I like what I've seen from Gray. He is fourth in K-BB rate among starters so far this year, which is the essence of pitching, and Valdez is 33rd (27.4-19.7%). 

Furthermore, Gray's pitching peripherals against the Astros are impressive. He has a 19.5% K-BB rate and a .170/.221/.253 slash line in 87 plate appearances vs. Houston's Monday lineup, according to Statcast. For context, the average MLB K-BB rate is 13.5%, per Baseball Reference. 

Also, the Cardinals have been a lot more productive at the plate than the Astros. According to FanGraphs, St. Louis' lineup out-ranks Houston in wRC+ (124-87), wOBA (.345-.285), and ISO (.155-.101). Ultimately, these bullpens are similar in WAR and availability for Monday, but the Cardinals have an edge in hitting and starting pitching, and they're taking sharp action. 

Prediction: Cardinals 7, Astros 4

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Chicago Cubs (11-7) at San Diego Padres (13-3) 

Chicago upset the reigning World Series Dodgers in two of their three meetings over the weekend in Los Angeles, outscoring the Dodgers, 20-5, in the series. The Padres swept the Colorado Rockies and didn't give up a run in the set. Chicago beat San Diego, 2-1, at home in a three-game set earlier this month. 

However, the Padres have a massive edge in starting and relief pitching for Monday's opener. They didn't use any relievers on Sunday because starting Padres RHP Michael King threw a complete-game shutout. Chicago used six bullpen arms in its 4-2 victory over the Dodgers. Plus, San Diego's bullpen is first in ERA and second in WHIP. The Cubs' relievers are 21st in ERA and 25th in WHIP. 

San Diego RHP Dylan Cease (1-1, 7.98 ERA) faces Chicago RHP Jameson Taillon (1-1, 6.06 ERA). Neither started in the Cubs-Padres set earlier this month. But, don't let the 7.98 ERA fool you; Cease is much better than Taillon. Cease has a 3.66 expected ERA compared to Taillon's 5.31 expected ERA. Taillon has gotten luckier this year. His BAbip is .292, and Cease's BAbip is .390. 

The Padres are 10-0 at home this season and have won eight of those games by 3+ runs. They are 7-1 on the run line as home favorites with a +3.1 run margin. Both lineups are productive, but San Diego's is better, and I'm fading Chicago's pitching on Monday. 

Prediction: Padres 6, Cubs 2

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2025 betting record via X all season.