Leading Off The 2nd Half Of MLB 2024 With Three 'Locks' In Phillies-Pirates, Tigers-Blue Jays, Mets-Marlins
Betting on MLB 2024 was uneventful for me in the first half of the season. I'm two games above-.500 over 64 bets, yet, I'm down a quarter-unit (u). Since no one likes mediocrity in this space, I'll try to do a better job either winning or losing in the second half. If I win, you can tail me. If I lose, you can fade me.
This 50/50 BS is boring. Hopefully, I can start a winning streak since I have a bunch of NFL and college football future bets to place. That said, let's get into my three favorite bets, aka locks, for the Friday card.
MLB Best Bets For July 19
- 1u on the PHILLIES -1.5 RUN LINE (+105) vs. Pirates (DraftKings).
- 1u on the TIGERS +100 MONEYLINE vs. Blue Jays (DraftKings).
- 1.3u on the METS -130 MONEYLINE vs. Marlins (DraftKings).
Philadelphia Phillies (62-34) at Pittsburgh Pirates (48-48), 6:40 p.m. ET
The first-place Phillies travel across the state as a heavy road favorite (-162 on the moneyline) to play the feisty Pirates Friday. Philadelphia RHP Aaron Nola (11-4, 3.38 ERA) takes the mound and faces Pittsburgh LHP Martin Perez (1-5, 5.15 ERA). Nola is the No. 2 starter for a first-place team and Perez is a "middle of the rotation" guy for a non-title contender.
With that in mind, the Phillies have a three-phase edge. They are 3-0 straight up (SU) vs. the run line as -150 favorites or greater when Nola starts this season. Philadelphia's bullpen leads MLB in K-BB% and ranks second in WAR, per FanGraphs. Philly's lineup has three NL All-Stars: 3B Alec Bohm, SS Trea Turner, and 1B Bryce Harper.
Philadelphia Phillies 1B Bryce Harper after hitting a double in the 2024 MLB All-Star game at Globe Life Field in Texas. (Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports)
Finally, this is a "better spot" for the Phillies. They are 8-2 vs. the run line with a day off and this is their first game back from the MLB All-Star break. The Pirates on the other hand are 2-10 after an off-day with a -2.8 per-game run differential.
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Detroit Tigers (47-50) at Toronto Blue Jays (44-52), 7:07 p.m. ET
Even though the Blue Jays have bigger names in their lineup, including starting AL All-Star 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., these teams are equal in production vs. right-handed pitching. Toronto averages 4.2 runs per nine against righties and Detroit averages 4.3 runs per nine. But, the Tigers have an edge in the pitching matchup.
Detroit RHP Jack Flaherty (6-5, 3.13 ERA) duels against Blue Jays RHP Chris Bassitt (8-7, 3.52 ERA) Friday. Per Statcast, Flaherty grades in the 89th percentile or better among MLB pitchers in whiff rate, K%, BB%, and expected ERA. Meanwhile, Bassitt is in the 42nd percentile or worse in those metrics.
Plus, Toronto's bullpen is last in Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP") and WAR, according to FanGraphs. FIP is more predictive than ERA because it removes factors outside the pitcher's control. Before the All-Star break, the Tigers were one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning eight of their previous 10.
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New York Mets (49-46) at Miami Marlins (33-63), 7:10 p.m. ET
This almost has to be a "trap line", if you believe in that sort of thing. New York's moneyline is just -135 at DraftKings. Mets starting LHP Sean Manaea (6-3, 3.46 ERA) gets the nod Friday and the Marlins are 6-28 SU vs. left-handed starters. That's not "bad luck" either. Miami's lineup ranks last in wRC+, wOBA, and BB/K against lefties, per FanGraphs.
Furthermore, Manaea is having a solid bounce-back year in his first season in Queens. Thus far, 2024 is his best year for ERA and home runs allowed per nine innings. Manaea is FanGraphs' highest power-ranked starter in New York's rotation. Manaea's go-to pitch — the sinker — is one of the best pitches in baseball.
New York Mets LHP Sean Manaea pitches against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. (Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports)
More importantly, the Mets were rolling to end the first half of the season. New York is 21-9 SU over the last 30 games and 7-3 over the last 10. Lastly, this season series is tied 3-3, but the Mets were 22-10 vs. the Marlins in 2022-23.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2024 betting record via X all season.