There Are Two Cursed MLB Franchises Worth Betting Friday

Nothing would be more pleasurable than becoming a winning bettor in MLB this summer. Entering Friday, I've hit eight consecutive MLB bets. Like a stereotypical superstitious baseball player, I won't be changing things until the streak is broken. I took a bath in the NBA this season and my PGA TOUR 2024 betting experience has been torturous. 

Frankly, I need to rob "Peter (MLB) to pay Paul (PGA TOUR)", unless Robert MacIntyre or Rory McIlroy wins this week's RBC Canadian Open. I'm really tempting the baseball gambling gods with a "heat check" Friday by betting two perennially disappointing teams: The New York Mets and San Diego Padres. 

MLB Bet Slip for Friday, May 31st

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Arizona Diamondbacks (25-31) at New York Mets (23-33) 

FanDuel Odds 

• Moneyline (ML): Arizona (+102) | NEW YORK (-120) 
• Runline (RL): Diamondbacks -1.5 (+168) | Mets +1.5 (-205)
• Total — 7.5 — Over (+102) | Under (-124)

Starting Pitchers 

• Arizona Diamondbacks LHP Jordan Montgomery (3-2 with a 4.69 ERA). Montgomery beat the Miami Marlins 3-2 at home Saturday. The lefty had 6.0 innings pitched (IP) with 2 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, and 4 K.
• New York Mets RHP Luis Severino (2-2 with a 3.22 ERA). Severino earned his fourth consecutive no-decision in NYM's 7-2 loss to the San Francisco Giants Saturday. He pitched 7.0 innings with 1 ER on 2 H, 3 BB, and 6 K.

METS (-120) over Diamondbacks

Casual sports fans like to point and laugh at the dumpster fire that is the 2024 New York Mets. But, they are only two games worse than the D-Backs and neither is playing well. The Mets have lost eight of their last 10 games and the Diamondbacks are 4-6 in the previous 10. However, per FanGraphs, NYM's lineup is tied for 14th in WAR over the last two weeks and Arizona's is 26th. 

New York Mets SS Francisco Lindor after hitting a solo home run in the third inning vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citi Field. (Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, the Mets have better relief pitching. For instance, New York's bullpen is 10th in Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP") and fifth in K-BB% while the D-Backs are 23rd in FIP and 27th in K-BB%. FIP removes factors the pitcher cannot control, making it more predictive than ERA. Regardless, NYM's bullpen has a better ERA (4.22-3.72) and FIP (4.09-3.72). 

At best, the starting pitching matchup is even, but I give a slight edge to Severino Friday. His pitching peripherals are sharper than Montgomery's and Severino has a 2.00 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home. According to Statcast, Severino has a better xERA, exit velocity, barrel %, and xBA. 

BET 1.2u on New York's -120 ML. I'd bet the Mets up to -140. 

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San Diego Padres (30-29) at Kansas City Royals (35-23)

Caesars Odds 

• ML: SAN DIEGO (-140) | Kansas City (+118)
• Runline (RL): Padres -1.5 (+118) | Royals +1.5 (-140)
• Total — 8 — Over (-105) | Under (-115)

Starting Pitchers 

• San Diego Padres RHP Dylan Cease (5-4 with a 3.29 ERA). Cease loss to the New York Yankees 4-1 Saturday in his last outing. He went 6.2 IP, allowing 4 ER on 8 H, 1 HR, and 0 BB with 9 K.
• Kansas City Royals RHP Michael Wacha (4-5 with a 4.31 ERA). Wacha lost at the Tampa Bay Rays 4-1 Sunday. Wacha threw 6.0 IP with 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, and 7 K.

PADRES (-140) over Royals

This is a Pros vs. Joe's game in the betting market. Per Pregame.com, the Royals are getting roughly two-thirds of the bets as of 2:15 p.m. ET Friday but slightly more money is on the Padres. As a result, San Diego's ML has gone from -115 on the opener to the current odds. I consider betting splits more when handicapping regular-season MLB because only sharp money moves the odds, not the public. 

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease fires one in against the San Francisco Giants at Petco Park. (Ray Acevedo-USA TODAY Sports)

Also, the Padres have a three-phase edge in starting and relief pitching and hitting. Cease is 11th in FanGraphs' starting pitcher power rankings and Wacha is 62nd. According to FanGraphs, Cease's K-BB% is 10.4% higher (23.8-13.4%) and the essence of pitching is walks and strikeouts. San Diego's bullpen is seventh in FIP and ninth in WAR while KC's is 24th in FIP and 23rd in WAR. 

Finally, the Padres have more talent in their lineup and hit right-handed pitching better. Padres LF Jurickson Profar, 2B Jake Cronenworth, and RF Fernando Tatis Jr. have a wRC+ of 119 or higher, and "100" is considered good, per FanGraphs. San Diego's lineup out-ranks Kansas City's in wRC+ (118-99) and wOBA (.326-.312) vs. righties. 

BET 1.4u on San Diego's -140 ML at Caesars. The Padres are playable up to -150. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2024 betting record via X all season.