Two MLB Short Home Favorites Are Strong Bets Friday
Now that baseball is back, I can distance myself from the NBA until the playoffs. I nearly went 2-0 in MLB Opening Day but split my two best bets when the Chicago Cubs lost in extra innings to the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers. It was a tough break, however, the Cubs didn't deserve to win. Their starter got pulled early with an injury and Chicago scored a go-ahead run in the 9th with a passed ball that looked like a foul tip.
READ: Invest In These 3 MLB Teams For 2024
That said, my "idiot" two-team parlay cashed with the Detroit Tigers beating the Chicago White Sox in a 1-0 nail-biter and the Cleveland Guardians crushing the Oakland Athletics 8-0. Professional bettors look down on parlays, so I deemed it an "idiot" parlay. Unfortunately, I couldn't find two favorites to combine into a parlay Friday. You'll just have to fade or follow my two outright bets.
MLB Betting Card For Friday, March 29th
The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays (-125), 6:50 p.m. ET
The Blue Jays won the series opener 8-2 Opening Day. Toronto chased Tampa starting RHP Zach Eflin with a 5-run rally in the top of the 6th inning. The Blue Jays give RHP Chris Bassitt the start Friday, while the Rays counter with RHP Aaron Civale. In 2023, Bassitt went 16-8 with a 3.60 ERA in his first season in Toronto. Civale was 7-5 with a 3.46 ERA for Tampa and the Cleveland Guardians.
This is mostly the "eyeball test" because the numbers support Bassitt, but I'll take Civale. He has a diverse 6-pitch arsenal with three elite pitches such as a cutter, curveball, and sinker. Civale should work in Tampa's rotation since every pitcher improves when playing for the Rays. Also, FanGraphs projects Tampa's bullpen to lead MLB in Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP") this season.
Tampa Bay Rays RHP Aaron Civale delivers a pitch vs. the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park in Michigan. (David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports)
Plus, the Rays were more productive vs. right-handed pitching last year and retained much of their lineup, besides SS Wander Franco for gross reasons I won't get into. Yet, per FanGraphs, Tampa's lineup had a better wRC+ (117-105), wOBA (.334-.323), and hard-hit rate (34.1-33.5%) against righties. Civale has "reverse splits" due to his cutter and the Blue Jays were 29th in hard-hit rate vs. lefties in 2023.
Finally, there's been line movement in Tampa's direction in the betting market. The Rays had a -115 moneyline on the opener and are as high as -130 at FanDuel. I'm more willing to follow line movement in MLB since the public doesn't move the odds in regular-season baseball. Especially, on the night of the Sweet 16, which will have a much larger handle than MLB.
Bet 1.25u on Tampa's moneyline (-125) at DraftKings. The Rays are playable up to -135.
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Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners (-140), 9:40 p.m. ET
Boston beat Seattle 6-4 Thursday as Red Sox starting RHP Brayan Bello out-dueled Mariners starting RHP Luis Castillo. Seattle sends RHP George Kirby to even the series and Boston counters with RHP Nick Pivetta. Kirby is one of my favorite starting pitchers in the AL. He was a 2023 MLB All-Star and led the majors with a 9.1 K/BB rate.
Furthermore, the Mariners are 9-2 as home favorites with Kirby on the mound and a +46.4% return on investment (ROI). Seattle has won seven straight in those spots last season. Boston is 9-19 all-time as road underdogs in Pivetta starts with a -25.4% ROI, including four consecutive losses.
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby throws against the Texas Rangers at T-Mobile Park in Washington. (Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports)
Lastly, the Red Sox used four relievers Opening Day and they don't have as deep of a bullpen as the Mariners. FanGraphs projects Boston's bullpen to be in the bottom 10 of MLB in FIP and Seattle's to be in the top 10. The Mariners still have their closer available, RHP Andres Munoz, and setup man RHP Ryne Stanek.
Bet 1.4u on Seattle's moneyline (-140) at Caesars. The Mariners are bet-able up to -150.
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