MLB All-Star Game Props And MVP

National League vs. American League, 8:00 ET

I've written a piece already today about what will happen in the All-Star Game and how to play the full game. But, with most one-off games, there is a large prop and MVP market that we can capitalize on. Breaking down the game wont happen here. Instead, we are going to focus on specific bets and try to identify who we should take as the MVP of the game. The majority (if not all) will be available on the major sportsbooks in America, so they shouldn't be hard to find, but always take the best odds you can find. I'll mention if it comes from an offshore book, and it cannot be found on a different book. 

Paul Skenes Strikeouts Thrown

This market is an interesting one. If Skenes throws two innings, we are getting a ton of value here. He is -350 to record 1+ strikeout, so that's almost a given even if he pitches just one inning. If he gets to two, I am extremely confident that he will strikeout at least two hitters which is +135. I also think that we should back him to strike out three hitters at +500. These are a lot of guys that have never seen him before and he will be hyped up to pitch on national television and at the All-Star Game. I will tell you, the manager of the NL has already said Skenes will pitch one inning, but things can change. He has faced 255 batters on the season and he has 89 strikeouts which is 35% of the time. 

Tarik Skubal Strikeouts Thrown

Another pitcher that I like a prop on is Tarik Skubal. Skubal is probably the AL Cy Young this season - maybe you could say Burnes has been better, but it is a close enough matchup that you couldn't be too argumentative about either choice if the season ended today. Skubal probably will face either cold hitters off the bench, or he will face the bottom half of the starting lineup of the National League. He is striking out about 31% of hitters that he faced this season. I think that by the same logic as Skenes he should have a good chance to strikeout two hitters today. That bet is +180.

Detroit Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal delivers against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field. (Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports)

Player to Record 1+ Hits (National League)

Trea Turner can beat you in a million different ways. He has speed, he has some pop, and he hits for average. He is one of only a few hitters listed that are not plus money to record a hit. I do think that Turner is a worthy choice, but I would probably avoid him. If I was going to take anyone that is listed with "-" odds, I'd take Luis Arraez. He's proven he is one of the best contact hitters in the game. I also think he might have a good chance to get multiple at-bats off the bench. I will also put a sprinkle on Elly De La Cruz. I think he can get a bunt single, or find a way to get a hit. These are the types of games that seem like he will stand out. 

Player to Record 1st Hit

The National League has a bit of a leg up on this one as they get to bat first in this game. Ketel Marte is the leadoff hitter and is 4-for-13 against Burnes. Shohei Ohtani is 1-for-3 against him. Bryce Harper is 1-for-10, and Trea Turner is 4-for-10. No one on the AL team has faced Skenes before and I'm not quite sure who will pitch after him. So, my pick would be for Turner at +400. I already mentioned I think he is likely to get a hit, but he is also the three hitter in the lineup so he will get a chance to face Burnes again and has a good history against him. 

MVP

This is by far the hardest award to pick. Players only play a small portion of the game, and the impact typically is a random hit or dominant performance. Here are the past five winners - Elias Diaz, Giancarlo Stanton, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Shane Bieber, and Alex Bregman. There really is no rhyme or reason, it is just random. I'm not betting more than .25u on this total, but I will take a shot on De La Cruz at +2500 - I could see him wreaking havoc on the bases and scoring a run. If I had to pick an American Leaguer, I'd take Guerrero Jr. at +2000. He's won before, coming off the bench he could get multiple at-bats, he is hitting well lately, and can hit for both power and average. Those are the two that I'll sprinkle on.

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