MLB 2023 Home Run Derby Bracket And Best Bets

Eight of MLB's best power-hitters will face-off at the 2023 MLB Home Run Derby Monday at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington as part of the MLB's All-Star festivities. The derby starts at 8 p.m. ET and here is the field ...

Remember, MLB changed the format for the Home Run Derby back in 2015 to this elimination bracket. Lower seeds bat 1st and the seeds are decided by their season home run totals entering the derby.

Instead of 10 outs per hitter, there is a time limit for the rounds. In the 1st two rounds, each hitter gets three minutes to hit as many home runs as possible before a 2-minute final round to determine the winner.

Former Washington Nationals RF Juan Soto reacts to a home run in the final round of the 2022 Home Run Derby en route to a win at Dodgers Stadium. (Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports)

A round can end early if the 2nd batter hits more home runs before his time is up. Every hitter gets 30 seconds of bonus time at the end of their round. Another 30 seconds worth of bonus time is available if a batter hits two 440+ homers.

These sluggers compete for a $1 million share of a $2.5 million prize pool.

2023 MLB Home Run Derby Betting Odds

Betting odds for the 2023 MLB Home Run Derby from DraftKings as of Monday, July 10th.

Imma take a "buckshot" approach to betting this year's Home Run Derby. This is how I went about profiting on the 2023 Men's College World Series (MCWS).

I bet the eventual winner, LSU Tigers (+380) in Bracket 1 and a longshot, TCU Horned Frogs (+800), on the other side of the MCWS bracket. Before I get into my best bet, let's discuss the slugger with the ...

Best Value: Tampa Bay Rays OF Randy Arozarena (+1000)

Arozarena is on-pace to break his personal home run record of 20 in each of the past two seasons. He has hit 16 home runs as of Wednesday, July 5th to earn the 5-seed in the derby.

He is trying to become the 2nd Cuban to win the Home Run Derby after former Oakland Athletics OF Yoenis Céspedes went back-to-back in 2013-14. The $1 million prize pool means more to Arozarena than the other sluggers in the field.

Rays OF Randy Arozarena celebrates his 2-run home run vs. the Mariners at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. (Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

Tampa is paying Arozarena just $4.15 million this season and Arozarena is under arbitration for the following three seasons before becoming a free agent in 2017. Meaning, the $1 million winner's share makes a big difference for Arozarena.

Granted, his 1st-round opponent, Texas Rangers OF Adolis Garcia, makes less than $1 million a year. But, I'll take the +200 odds boost with Arozarena. He has the 2nd-highest exit velocity (EV) out of anyone in the derby (93.0 mph) and a 50.2% hard-hit rate, per FanGraphs.

Best Bet: Toronto Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+370)

Even though Guerrero has never won a derby he holds a couple of records. Guerrero's 91 home runs in the 2019 MLB Home Run Derby is the most ever by 10 home runs. He hit a single-round record 40 home runs that year as well.

Guerrero is having a down-season by his lofty standards. He hit 48 home runs in 2021 and 30 last season but has just 13 home runs as of Wednesday, July 5th.

Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr competes in the 2019 T-Mobile Home Run Derby at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. (Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

However, Guerrero leads the derby field in "no doubters" (61.5%), per Statcast, and hard-hit rate (57.1%) and EV (94.5 mph), according to FanGraphs. I.e. Guerrero is making good contact and his home run numbers should increase post-All-Star break.

Split 1 unit among Rays OF Randy Arozarena (+1000) and Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+370) to win the 2023 MLB Home Run Derby at DraftKings

Payouts for Tampa OF Randy Arozarena and Toronto 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at DraftKings to win the 2023 MLB Home Run Derby.